NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	120		Excitement	5.7 [682]		MVP	Reggie Jackson (DET): +31.5%
Portland Trail Blazers	103		Comeback	22.6 [44]		LVP	Mason Plumlee (POR): -13.6%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Reggie Jackson	0.31	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.21,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31	0.19	0.22	0.10	26	67%	0.36	2	-0.04	8	87%	0.07
Andre Drummond	0.17	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.14	0.03	-0.00	19	66%	0.20	1	-0.03	6	17%	-0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.02	5	60%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Tolliver	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	0.00	0.04	4	75%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.02	4	37%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aron Baynes	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.04	-0.00	15	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Stanley Johnson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	4	30%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Marcus Morris	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.11,-0.12,-0.11,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.01	-0.01	18	34%	-0.07	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Allen Crabbe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.14	0.02	-0.00	7	107%	0.17	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Meyers Leonard	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	-0.01	-0.00	13	65%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Noah Vonleh	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ed Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	3	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Damian Lillard	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0,0,0	-0.00	0.07	-0.05	0.03	15	70%	0.16	5	-0.16	7	86%	0.02
CJ McCollum	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.04	17	50%	0.02	4	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Maurice Harkless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	3	50%	-0.00	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Al-Farouq Aminu	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.03	-0.07	0.00	7	50%	-0.03	2	-0.07	4	75%	-0.01
Mason Plumlee	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.10	-0.04	-0.01	8	37%	-0.02	4	-0.12	3	33%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.5	26.5	15.4	24.2	2.7	33.5	128.0
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +5.8%

DET +2.3%

DET +6.6%

DET +38.6%

POR -3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	POR	NBA	DET	POR	NBA
this game	15.2	14.0	14.9	121.2	105.1	105.1
season	15.0	15.0		104.9	107.1
opponent	14.6	15.1		106.7	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	17.1	17.2	14.8	12.3	15.2
POR	12.2	15.5	14.6	13.9	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Tolliver	46	45	0.69	-0.19	0.89	0.08	21	-4	25	15.2	15.2	-0.03	13.3	14.6	-1.31
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	83	81	0.69	-0.19	0.89	-0.01	24	-7	31	14.4	19.1	-4.69	14.4	12.4	1.97
Reggie Jackson	72	71	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.04	22	-5	27	14.4	17.4	-3.00	14.6	12.7	1.90
Marcus Morris	77	76	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.02	19	-2	21	15.5	14.3	1.18	13.1	17.3	-4.17
Andre Drummond	73	73	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.14	14	3	11	14.9	15.9	-0.94	14.2	13.7	0.43
Aron Baynes	26	25	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.14	3	14	-11	15.9	14.9	0.94	13.7	14.2	-0.43
Steve Blake	27	27	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.03	-5	22	-27	17.4	14.4	3.00	12.7	14.6	-1.90
Ersan Ilyasova	53	53	-0.19	0.69	-0.89	-0.08	-4	21	-25	15.2	15.2	0.03	14.6	13.3	1.31
Stanley Johnson	38	39	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	-0.01	-9	26	-35	16.3	14.5	1.82	15.2	13.3	1.85

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ed Davis	40	39	0.30	-0.80	1.10	0.12	6	-23	29	13.4	14.5	-1.08	16.6	14.2	2.39
Noah Vonleh	18	18	0.24	-0.74	0.99	-0.02	9	-26	35	12.4	14.4	-1.96	19.7	14.2	5.47
Allen Crabbe	51	51	0.16	-0.66	0.82	0.22	-2	-15	13	13.4	14.7	-1.31	15.9	14.5	1.42
Maurice Harkless	44	44	0.05	-0.55	0.60	0.11	-2	-15	13	13.9	14.1	-0.24	16.5	14.2	2.31
Al-Farouq Aminu	73	73	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	0.00	-19	2	-21	14.2	13.6	0.54	14.7	16.6	-1.93
CJ McCollum	70	72	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.00	-19	2	-21	13.4	15.6	-2.14	14.9	15.9	-0.91
Damian Lillard	73	74	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.12	-15	-2	-13	14.4	12.9	1.56	14.5	17.2	-2.69
Meyers Leonard	70	71	-0.78	0.28	-1.06	-0.02	-26	9	-35	14.7	12.3	2.46	14.0	18.3	-4.36
Mason Plumlee	51	53	-0.79	0.29	-1.09	-0.30	-17	0	-17	15.0	13.0	1.92	14.5	16.0	-1.47

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.53,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.57,0.62,0.68,0.68,0.76,0.66,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.79,0.78,0.71,0.67,0.7,0.78,0.79,0.83,0.85,0.91,0.93,0.89,0.9,0.88,0.88,0.94,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.86,0.85,0.79,0.71,0.54,0.19,0.03,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 92, BOS 84	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.5,0.51,0.57,0.61,0.55,0.6,0.66,0.71,0.74,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.69,0.71,0.78,0.79,0.78,0.75,0.81,0.84,0.88,0.88,0.84,0.87,0.83,0.84,0.85,0.91,0.95,0.96,0.9,0.93,0.85,0.81,0.82,0.89,0.84,0.71,0.47,0.34,0.15,0.07,0.06,0,0	92.0%
POR 97, NOH 89	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.59,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.6,0.62,0.56,0.55,0.58,0.68,0.71,0.74,0.7,0.73,0.75,0.71,0.82,0.8,0.85,0.86,0.89,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.93,0.94,0.87,0.77,0.64,0.46,0.48,0.33,0.28,0.14,0.04,0	90.9%
SEA 84, LAC 78	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.59,0.55,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.67,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.75,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.7,0.78,0.86,0.82,0.9,0.85,0.8,0.87,0.88,0.81,0.82,0.86,0.94,0.87,0.9,0.85,0.76,0.68,0.53,0.6,0.47,0.31,0.36,0.14,0.16,0	90.9%