NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	104		Excitement	2.1 [1288]		MVP	Stephen Curry (GSW): +8.3%
Golden State Warriors	119		Comeback	1.0 [1315]		LVP	Emmanuel Mudiay (DEN): -7.1%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danilo Gallinari	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.17	0.00	0.13	13	71%	0.04	1	-0.00	9	100%	0.01
Gary Harris	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.13	0.00	0.10	8	89%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Kostas Papanikolaou	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenneth Faried	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	9	44%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
JJ Hickson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	3	62%	0.02	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Darrell Arthur	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	5	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Mike Miller	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	40%	-0.02	1	0.00	2	0%	-0.01
Will Barton	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	0.00	0.04	16	54%	-0.00	3	-0.02	3	100%	0.00
Randy Foye	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.12	-0.01	-0.08	5	0%	-0.04	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	0.00	0.03	8	62%	0.00	4	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Emmanuel Mudiay	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.17	0.00	-0.10	19	32%	-0.03	4	-0.04	2	50%	-0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Curry	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.18	0.00	0.10	22	72%	0.11	4	-0.03	3	67%	-0.00
Harrison Barnes	0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.16	0.00	0.09	13	72%	0.07	0	0.00	3	100%	0.00
Festus Ezeli	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	0.00	0.04	7	89%	0.06	3	-0.02	4	50%	-0.01
Klay Thompson	0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	0.00	0.03	16	56%	0.03	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Draymond Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.01	9	67%	0.04	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Andre Iguodala	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	3	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Rush	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	100%	-0.00	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ian Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.04	2	0%	-0.01	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Michael McAdoo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.00
Leandro Barbosa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	6	43%	0.01	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Shaun Livingston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01	3	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marreese Speights	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.12	0.00	-0.08	7	19%	-0.03	2	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.0	1.6	28.5	15.5	24.4	2.4	32.6	131.9
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +29.3%

DEN -1.2%

GSW +13.6%

GSW +6.9%

GSW +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	GSW	NBA	DEN	GSW	NBA
this game	13.6	13.2	14.9	97.2	110.2	105.1
season	14.9	13.7		104.3	112.3
opponent	15.1	14.9		102.9	107.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.0	12.7	14.0	14.0	13.6
GSW	13.2	12.2	14.2	13.1	13.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kostas Papanikolaou	4	4	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-17	19	11.5	13.7	-2.22	14.5	13.1	1.39
Darrell Arthur	27	28	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.21	6	-21	27	14.4	13.4	1.03	13.0	13.2	-0.26
JJ Hickson	14	15	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.06	-7	-8	1	13.6	13.6	-0.07	13.4	13.1	0.28
Nikola Jokic	38	36	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.02	-5	-10	5	13.4	13.8	-0.33	14.3	12.6	1.68
Mike Miller	15	16	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.12	-10	-5	-5	13.3	13.7	-0.35	14.4	12.9	1.43
Kenneth Faried	49	51	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.04	-5	-10	5	13.6	13.7	-0.04	12.4	13.8	-1.38
Emmanuel Mudiay	68	69	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	0.09	-11	-4	-7	13.8	13.3	0.56	12.7	13.9	-1.20
Randy Foye	41	41	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.07	-6	-9	3	13.1	13.9	-0.79	13.7	12.9	0.81
Will Barton	88	88	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.21	-3	-12	9	13.7	13.5	0.20	13.1	13.3	-0.17
Jameer Nelson	48	48	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.04	-12	-3	-9	13.6	13.7	-0.13	13.5	12.9	0.54
Danilo Gallinari	76	77	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.00	-11	-4	-7	13.9	13.0	0.89	12.9	13.9	-1.00
Gary Harris	67	67	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.00	-13	-2	-11	13.5	13.9	-0.42	13.1	13.3	-0.26

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Harrison Barnes	69	68	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.18	6	9	-3	13.3	12.9	0.41	14.5	12.1	2.37
Draymond Green	75	74	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.19	18	-3	21	12.8	14.1	-1.30	13.8	13.3	0.52
Stephen Curry	78	78	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.08	14	1	13	12.9	13.9	-1.03	13.9	12.9	1.01
Andre Iguodala	49	51	0.31	0.19	0.11	-0.08	13	2	11	14.0	12.5	1.54	13.6	13.6	0.02
Klay Thompson	71	69	0.29	0.21	0.09	-0.09	13	2	11	12.5	14.3	-1.78	13.8	13.4	0.33
Shaun Livingston	40	40	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.06	6	9	-3	14.0	12.7	1.34	13.5	13.7	-0.18
Festus Ezeli	41	39	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.07	4	11	-7	12.9	13.3	-0.49	14.1	13.4	0.78
Leandro Barbosa	27	26	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.08	3	12	-9	13.9	12.9	0.98	12.9	13.9	-0.99
James Michael McAdoo	21	22	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.08	2	13	-11	13.2	13.1	0.10	13.7	13.6	0.12
Marreese Speights	29	29	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.13	0	15	-15	14.6	12.6	1.95	12.4	14.1	-1.68
Ian Clark	18	18	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.01	0	15	-15	11.6	13.5	-1.86	12.3	13.9	-1.63
Jason Thompson	18	17	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.06	-2	17	-19	12.2	13.4	-1.19	11.9	14.0	-2.08
Brandon Rush	4	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	17	-19	14.5	13.1	1.39	11.5	13.7	-2.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.68,0.69,0.71,0.75,0.77,0.78,0.81,0.86,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 77, DET 116	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.68,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.76,0.81,0.83,0.89,0.9,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	98.5%
ATL 92, MEM 124	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.65,0.65,0.7,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.89,0.91,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	98.3%
DET 78, PHI 114	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.6,0.62,0.68,0.69,0.71,0.73,0.68,0.72,0.75,0.79,0.81,0.88,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	98.3%