NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	126		Excitement	9.3 [112]		MVP	Justin Holiday (GSW): +20.0%
Golden State Warriors	133		Comeback	2.6 [640]		LVP	Jusuf Nurkic (DEN): -12.9%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Erick Green	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.29,0.29,0.22,0.2	0.08	0.11	0.00	13	63%	0.25	1	-0.05	1	100%	0.02
Will Barton	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.09	0.07	0.02	9	73%	0.16	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.03
Danilo Gallinari	0.12	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.01	0.01	10	67%	0.12	0	0.00	7	86%	0.02
Wilson Chandler	0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.14,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.05	0.04	-0.01	13	60%	0.17	3	-0.07	4	75%	-0.00
Joffrey Lauvergne	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.01	0.00	6	69%	0.12	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.03
Ian Clark	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	5	75%	0.10	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
JJ Hickson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Gary Harris	0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.16,0,0	0.03	-0.04	-0.00	6	65%	0.18	2	-0.18	5	80%	0.04
Jamaal Franklin	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.04	-0.08	-0.02	2	75%	0.01	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Ty Lawson	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.02	-0.02	5	33%	-0.03	4	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Jusuf Nurkic	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.04	-0.08	0.01	13	55%	0.01	5	-0.14	5	60%	-0.02

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Justin Holiday	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.27,0.24,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.08	0.12	0.00	7	70%	0.24	1	-0.04	6	100%	0.06
Klay Thompson	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.07,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.20	0.01	0.02	12	89%	0.24	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Shaun Livingston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.05	0.08	0.00	6	71%	0.17	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Harrison Barnes	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.09	0.01	0.01	8	75%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marreese Speights	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.06	-0.01	14	50%	0.13	1	-0.05	6	83%	0.13
Brandon Rush	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.05	0.00	5	50%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Draymond Green	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.02	-0.02	5	57%	0.06	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.02
Andre Iguodala	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Curry	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	10	50%	0.03	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Festus Ezeli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.01	-0.05	0.00	5	56%	-0.01	1	-0.04	6	50%	-0.03
James Michael McAdoo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.02	-0.04	0.03	4	67%	-0.01	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.08
Leandro Barbosa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	10	45%	-0.03	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.5	35.6	15.0	27.2	1.7	40.0	146.3
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +2.6%

DEN -9.2%

GSW +9.1%

GSW +35.6%

GSW +11.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	GSW	NBA	DEN	GSW	NBA
this game	14.4	12.4	15.1	117.8	123.1	104.2
season	14.6	13.6		103.4	109.2
opponent	15.5	15.3		99.7	106.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.0	14.6	16.0	13.2	14.4
GSW	10.8	13.1	13.4	12.6	12.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
JJ Hickson	38	39	0.40	-0.90	1.30	-0.01	14	-21	35	14.2	14.6	-0.39	12.1	12.6	-0.45
Joffrey Lauvergne	50	52	0.27	-0.77	1.03	-0.32	20	-27	47	13.6	15.1	-1.52	13.5	11.4	2.07
Will Barton	48	48	0.21	-0.71	0.92	-0.08	10	-17	27	13.7	15.0	-1.31	12.8	12.0	0.80
Ian Clark	36	39	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.13	1	-8	9	13.1	15.1	-2.04	12.3	12.4	-0.13
Erick Green	57	57	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.33	5	-12	17	14.9	13.9	0.96	13.7	10.9	2.78
Ty Lawson	42	42	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	0.11	-11	4	-15	14.1	14.6	-0.52	11.1	13.2	-2.12
Jamaal Franklin	21	23	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.25	-3	-4	1	13.0	14.8	-1.82	12.3	12.4	-0.11
Wilson Chandler	52	51	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.06	-17	10	-27	15.0	13.9	1.07	11.3	13.4	-2.04
Danilo Gallinari	52	51	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	0.10	-19	12	-31	15.3	13.5	1.82	11.7	13.0	-1.22
Gary Harris	72	71	-0.74	0.24	-0.99	-0.28	-16	9	-25	15.0	13.3	1.67	12.5	12.1	0.39
Jusuf Nurkic	67	67	-0.89	0.39	-1.27	-0.33	-19	12	-31	14.9	13.5	1.42	12.3	12.5	-0.12

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marreese Speights	46	46	0.79	-0.29	1.08	0.55	8	-1	9	12.6	12.2	0.42	14.6	14.3	0.27
Leandro Barbosa	56	54	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.49	-3	10	-13	12.2	12.6	-0.40	13.1	15.8	-2.70
James Michael McAdoo	34	35	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.03	10	-3	13	11.9	12.6	-0.78	15.5	13.9	1.64
Stephen Curry	46	45	0.29	0.21	0.07	-0.13	14	-7	21	11.0	13.4	-2.34	14.3	14.5	-0.21
Draymond Green	48	47	0.26	0.24	0.03	-0.15	14	-7	21	11.4	13.2	-1.86	14.3	14.5	-0.20
Andrew Bogut	38	38	0.21	0.29	-0.08	-0.08	10	-3	13	11.6	12.8	-1.29	14.4	14.4	0.06
Harrison Barnes	35	38	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.09	4	3	1	12.8	12.2	0.61	15.8	13.7	2.14
Klay Thompson	36	36	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.07	7	0	7	12.2	12.5	-0.33	14.5	14.4	0.18
Shaun Livingston	53	54	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.38	-10	17	-27	13.6	11.2	2.35	14.7	14.1	0.59
Brandon Rush	32	31	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.23	-5	12	-17	13.8	11.8	2.02	13.4	14.8	-1.49
Justin Holiday	43	41	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.04	0	7	-7	12.7	12.2	0.55	15.3	13.9	1.39
Andre Iguodala	39	38	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.03	-3	10	-13	11.9	12.7	-0.73	14.2	14.5	-0.31
Festus Ezeli	34	32	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	0.06	-11	18	-29	13.9	11.7	2.14	13.4	14.8	-1.39

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.66,0.69,0.65,0.65,0.71,0.76,0.74,0.76,0.71,0.67,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.56,0.72,0.67,0.61,0.58,0.65,0.69,0.78,0.76,0.76,0.77,0.71,0.76,0.73,0.67,0.6,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.67,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.78,0.81,0.46,0.57,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 96, DAL 107	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.64,0.6,0.66,0.67,0.62,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.58,0.62,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.64,0.61,0.72,0.61,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.72,0.7,0.76,0.68,0.62,0.48,0.52,0.6,0.56,0.5,0.48,0.43,0.62,0.63,0.74,0.81,0.78,0.69,0.64,0.67,0.99,1	91.1%
GSW 105, DAL 107	0.5,0.49,0.57,0.64,0.62,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.61,0.59,0.63,0.66,0.71,0.7,0.72,0.74,0.67,0.6,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.54,0.52,0.66,0.72,0.7,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.73,0.73,0.67,0.72,0.78,0.66,0.57,0.67,0.63,0.55,0.47,0.6,0.68,0.63,0.67,0.74,1	91.1%
DAL 83, SAS 88	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.71,0.68,0.65,0.68,0.7,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.59,0.59,0.66,0.72,0.78,0.7,0.71,0.82,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.79,0.71,0.62,0.59,0.6,0.56,0.62,0.57,0.7,0.8,0.77,0.69,0.6,0.61,0.75,0.72,0.76,0.85,1	91.0%