NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	85		Excitement	6.9 [442]		MVP	Ed Davis (LAL): +20.0%
Los Angeles Lakers	93		Comeback	1.2 [578]		LVP	Reggie Jackson (DET): -31.1%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andre Drummond	0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.09	0.05	0.04	0.00	11	64%	0.12	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Greg Monroe	0.09	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.09,0.09	0.11	-0.02	0.01	14	67%	0.13	1	-0.04	8	50%	-0.14
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06	0.04	0.04	0.02	14	52%	0.08	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Shawne Williams	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	2	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tayshaun Prince	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	5	42%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
John Lucas III	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Tolliver	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	7	31%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jodie Meeks	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	10	55%	0.05	3	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01
Spencer Dinwiddie	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17	-0.06	-0.12	-0.01	6	29%	-0.11	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Reggie Jackson	-0.31	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.27,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31	-0.21	-0.10	-0.00	9	11%	-0.16	5	-0.15	0	0%	0.00

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ed Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.09	0.11	-0.00	8	72%	0.20	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Wesley Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	6	65%	0.11	2	-0.06	8	100%	0.06
Tarik Black	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.01	9	56%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Kelly	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.02	0.00	3	40%	0.02	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Jeremy Lin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.04	0.04	4	60%	0.06	2	-0.05	12	75%	-0.02
Jordan Hill	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	0.01	15	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	12	46%	0.04	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Clarkson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	12	38%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Carlos Boozer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	6	33%	-0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.5	2.3	27.5	15.6	25.6	2.7	34.2	129.4
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +21.2%

LAL +22.1%

DET -3.5%

LAL +10.4%

DET -0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	LAL	NBA	DET	LAL	NBA
this game	15.1	15.5	15.1	91.4	97.9	104.2
season	15.7	15.5		104.0	101.9
opponent	14.7	15.3		108.9	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	16.7	15.4	16.7	12.4	15.1
LAL	18.4	16.6	15.3	12.8	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Lucas III	14	13	0.10	-0.60	0.69	-0.05	5	-13	18	13.5	15.4	-1.89	15.7	15.5	0.19
Spencer Dinwiddie	38	39	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.22	9	-17	26	14.7	15.4	-0.63	15.0	15.9	-0.89
Caron Butler	18	19	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.02	-1	-7	6	15.4	15.0	0.35	16.4	15.3	1.05
Shawne Williams	6	6	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	0.00	-2	-6	4	16.7	15.0	1.67	20.0	15.2	4.78
Anthony Tolliver	41	42	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.10	0	-8	8	15.7	14.6	1.07	16.0	15.2	0.85
Jodie Meeks	57	59	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.32	6	-14	20	14.2	16.5	-2.23	14.1	17.9	-3.80
Tayshaun Prince	40	39	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	0.04	-9	1	-10	16.3	14.2	2.18	17.7	14.0	3.67
Andre Drummond	64	65	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.27	0	-8	8	14.3	16.8	-2.50	15.0	16.7	-1.76
Greg Monroe	75	77	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.16	-14	6	-20	15.3	14.2	1.10	15.4	16.1	-0.72
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	71	73	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.27	-12	4	-16	15.0	15.4	-0.34	15.3	16.2	-0.91
Reggie Jackson	41	43	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	0.01	-22	14	-36	16.0	14.4	1.60	16.0	15.2	0.78

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wayne Ellington	81	79	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.25	10	-2	12	15.2	17.6	-2.40	14.9	16.4	-1.56
Wesley Johnson	64	62	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.15	9	-1	10	15.8	15.0	0.78	15.6	14.1	1.56
Jeremy Lin	59	57	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.30	0	8	-8	13.9	18.1	-4.16	14.4	16.2	-1.86
Jordan Hill	58	56	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.08	7	1	6	16.4	14.2	2.19	15.2	15.0	0.22
Carlos Boozer	56	53	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.27	0	8	-8	14.0	17.7	-3.76	14.5	16.0	-1.52
Tarik Black	39	40	0.23	0.27	-0.05	-0.01	8	0	8	17.7	14.0	3.76	16.0	14.5	1.52
Ed Davis	37	37	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.19	1	7	-6	14.2	16.4	-2.19	15.0	15.2	-0.22
Jordan Clarkson	50	50	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.01	6	2	4	18.0	12.8	5.14	16.3	13.7	2.58
Ryan Kelly	31	31	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.12	-1	9	-10	15.0	15.8	-0.78	14.1	15.6	-1.56

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.63,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.56,0.64,0.56,0.5,0.45,0.51,0.61,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.74,0.72,0.56,0.6,0.72,0.74,0.7,0.75,0.62,0.73,0.9,0.86,0.83,0.93,0.84,0.95,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 108, DAL 111	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.57,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.59,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.64,0.73,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.82,0.77,0.77,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.67,0.73,0.9,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.95,0.94,0.96,1	93.7%
DET 91, CLE 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.55,0.67,0.63,0.63,0.58,0.48,0.58,0.51,0.56,0.5,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.67,0.65,0.62,0.68,0.59,0.67,0.71,0.78,0.78,0.7,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.85,0.83,0.85,0.85,0.91,0.92,1	93.7%
NYK 73, ATL 76	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.47,0.51,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.72,0.68,0.69,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.68,0.72,0.63,0.56,0.68,0.7,0.66,0.7,0.62,0.73,0.89,0.8,0.9,0.95,0.89,0.94,0.99,1	93.4%