NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	109		Excitement	5.9 [632]		MVP	Jerryd Bayless (MIL): +23.7%
Miami Heat	102		Comeback	4.4 [218]		LVP	Zaza Pachulia (MIL): -6.9%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerryd Bayless	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.2,0.23,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.11	0.11	-0.02	8	75%	0.24	0	0.00	4	50%	0.01
John Henson	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.07,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.06	0.11	0.00	5	75%	0.21	2	-0.04	6	67%	-0.01
Khris Middleton	0.13	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.15	0.01	0.03	9	89%	0.15	1	-0.01	1	0%	-0.02
O.J. Mayo	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.04	0.06	-0.00	12	56%	0.13	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.04	0.01	6	72%	0.13	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.03
Jared Dudley	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	6	69%	0.08	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02
Brandon Knight	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	13	57%	0.10	4	-0.12	4	100%	0.03
Ersan Ilyasova	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	4	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	0.02	3	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	5	33%	-0.05	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.11	0.08	-0.04	9	70%	0.26	1	-0.03	12	67%	0.00
Danny Granger	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.12	-0.00	0.01	9	74%	0.10	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Norris Cole	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.03	0.00	7	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.07	-0.01	0.05	19	59%	0.07	2	-0.06	6	67%	-0.04
Dwyane Wade	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	9	57%	0.07	4	-0.09	3	67%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.04	-0.03	0.06	12	57%	0.05	2	-0.09	4	100%	0.02
Shawne Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Ennis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	0.02	3	33%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shabazz Napier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	3	33%	0.00	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.7	3.0	33.0	15.6	28.6	1.8	31.6	136.2
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +34.9%

MIL +7.7%

MIL +5.1%

MIL +5.4%

MIA -3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	MIA	NBA	MIL	MIA	NBA
this game	15.0	16.7	15.1	119.8	112.1	104.2
season	14.5	16.0		100.5	102.4
opponent	15.3	15.7		105.4	101.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	15.6	13.7	14.3	16.3	15.0
MIA	17.1	14.5	20.0	15.7	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jerryd Bayless	41	40	0.90	-0.40	1.31	0.32	20	-13	33	15.0	14.9	0.08	17.4	16.1	1.26
O.J. Mayo	52	52	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.20	15	-8	23	13.8	16.5	-2.72	16.5	17.0	-0.49
Giannis Antetokounmpo	73	73	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.25	9	-2	11	15.5	12.8	2.72	17.4	13.9	3.43
John Henson	34	34	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.09	11	-4	15	13.2	16.0	-2.75	19.0	15.3	3.64
Kenyon Martin	25	24	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.27	-2	9	-11	16.0	14.6	1.38	12.2	18.3	-6.03
Brandon Knight	73	73	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.27	-6	13	-19	15.3	13.4	1.95	16.0	19.4	-3.43
Jared Dudley	41	43	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.01	3	4	-1	14.2	15.6	-1.43	18.0	15.5	2.48
Ersan Ilyasova	19	18	0.08	0.42	-0.35	-0.04	4	3	1	15.8	14.7	1.05	17.9	16.4	1.56
Khris Middleton	57	57	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	0.14	-10	17	-27	15.3	14.3	1.01	16.0	17.8	-1.81
Zaza Pachulia	40	41	-0.30	0.80	-1.09	-0.03	-9	16	-25	15.4	14.6	0.88	16.0	17.3	-1.26

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	39	37	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.01	0	-7	7	16.4	16.9	-0.58	14.1	15.5	-1.38
Danny Granger	69	69	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.19	4	-11	15	16.1	18.5	-2.32	15.4	13.6	1.80
Shabazz Napier	18	17	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.09	-2	-5	3	15.7	16.9	-1.28	15.5	14.8	0.71
Chris Bosh	68	69	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.19	0	-7	7	16.2	18.3	-2.10	15.0	14.8	0.24
Hassan Whiteside	70	69	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.20	0	-7	7	16.3	17.9	-1.51	15.0	14.8	0.18
Mario Chalmers	62	65	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.25	0	-7	7	16.7	16.7	0.00	15.7	13.0	2.68
Udonis Haslem	21	22	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.10	-7	0	-7	17.9	16.3	1.51	14.8	15.0	-0.18
Shawne Williams	23	22	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.10	-7	0	-7	18.3	16.2	2.10	14.8	15.0	-0.24
Norris Cole	49	48	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.19	-9	2	-11	17.5	15.7	1.77	13.8	16.3	-2.46
James Ennis	36	37	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.16	-14	7	-21	17.5	16.1	1.38	14.9	15.0	-0.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.27,0.29,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.32,0.45,0.51,0.52,0.67,0.74,0.78,0.75,0.73,0.63,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.32,0.26,0.24,0.09,0.05,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 115, NYK 109	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.47,0.41,0.35,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.43,0.4,0.32,0.34,0.35,0.37,0.3,0.36,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.43,0.49,0.55,0.61,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.69,0.77,0.57,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.25,0.33,0.23,0.17,0.19,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.01,0	93.3%
IND 102, PHI 97	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.46,0.47,0.39,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.34,0.44,0.37,0.34,0.48,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.68,0.5,0.52,0.48,0.38,0.37,0.26,0.15,0.14,0.1,0.22,0.06,0.04,0	92.5%
CLE 119, PHX 111	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.42,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.36,0.41,0.41,0.5,0.48,0.55,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.68,0.72,0.73,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.57,0.33,0.38,0.23,0.41,0.24,0.17,0.08,0.05,0.1,0.01,0	92.4%