NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	112		Excitement	4.6 [892]		MVP	Jeff Teague (ATL): +17.1%
Miami Heat	102		Comeback	1.3 [416]		LVP	Josh McRoberts (MIA): -13.5%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeff Teague	0.17	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.21	0.04	0.08	11	90%	0.20	2	-0.02	8	100%	0.02
Dennis Schroder	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.11	0.04	0.01	9	80%	0.16	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Mike Scott	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.08	0.02	-0.01	5	90%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.01	-0.00	4	87%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Korver	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.09	0.01	0.04	12	67%	0.09	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Paul Millsap	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.04	0.03	-0.05	12	52%	0.13	4	-0.09	3	33%	-0.02
Shelvin Mack	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	5	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kent Bazemore	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	3	75%	0.04	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Pero Antic	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.03	4	40%	-0.00	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
DeMarre Carroll	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	0.00	9	29%	-0.04	1	-0.03	3	67%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.19	0.02	0.05	12	84%	0.19	2	-0.03	8	75%	-0.02
Shabazz Napier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.00	4	70%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	0.01	0.04	8	76%	0.14	3	-0.08	9	78%	0.01
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	1	100%	0.01	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawne Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	5	60%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
James Ennis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Justin Hamilton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Danny Granger	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	3	50%	-0.01	2	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.1,-0.08,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.03	-0.02	0.08	20	57%	0.02	4	-0.09	9	67%	-0.03
Josh McRoberts	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.08	-0.04	0.01	4	50%	-0.01	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	3.4	36.4	15.8	28.1	2.5	29.6	140.0
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +31.7%

ATL +8.9%

ATL +8.0%

ATL +4.0%

MIA -2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	MIA	NBA	ATL	MIA	NBA
this game	15.4	14.8	15.1	117.9	106.2	104.2
season	14.9	16.0		106.7	102.4
opponent	15.3	15.4		105.4	101.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	15.2	14.4	14.1	18.0	15.4
MIA	14.8	15.0	15.9	13.3	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Thabo Sefolosha	32	33	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.09	14	-4	18	14.7	15.8	-1.07	16.9	13.6	3.27
Dennis Schroder	42	42	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.11	9	1	8	17.3	13.9	3.34	13.9	15.4	-1.52
Pero Antic	39	41	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.18	6	4	2	14.8	15.8	-1.03	14.6	14.9	-0.26
Kyle Korver	71	71	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.11	7	3	4	15.0	16.6	-1.58	14.6	15.2	-0.65
Paul Millsap	69	68	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.03	7	3	4	14.4	17.9	-3.47	15.7	12.6	3.09
Al Horford	57	58	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.03	6	4	2	16.0	14.5	1.46	14.3	15.5	-1.18
Mike Scott	25	25	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.17	1	9	-8	17.6	14.6	3.04	13.6	15.2	-1.51
Jeff Teague	69	69	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.17	1	9	-8	14.6	17.6	-3.05	14.9	14.3	0.59
Shelvin Mack	25	25	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.09	2	8	-6	17.5	14.6	2.88	15.5	14.5	0.97
Kent Bazemore	0	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	10	-10	0.0	15.4	-15.40	2.0	14.9	-12.89
DeMarre Carroll	46	47	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.06	-3	13	-16	14.9	15.9	-0.94	13.9	15.6	-1.66

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mario Chalmers	68	70	0.20	-0.70	0.89	-0.33	18	-28	46	13.8	17.1	-3.26	16.6	12.2	4.40
Udonis Haslem	23	23	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.21	6	-16	22	13.3	15.2	-1.97	18.0	14.6	3.49
Justin Hamilton	13	13	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.08	-8	-2	-6	15.7	14.6	1.08	15.8	15.3	0.43
Luol Deng	36	35	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.04	-4	-6	2	14.6	14.8	-0.24	14.0	16.2	-2.26
Josh McRoberts	41	43	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.10	-2	-8	6	16.2	13.7	2.46	13.8	16.7	-2.98
Danny Granger	18	16	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.04	-7	-3	-4	15.9	14.5	1.46	16.8	15.1	1.70
Chris Bosh	78	76	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.16	-2	-8	6	13.9	18.4	-4.53	16.1	12.6	3.46
James Ennis	32	33	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.02	-9	-1	-8	14.9	14.7	0.17	15.4	15.4	-0.06
Dwyane Wade	71	71	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.16	-8	-2	-6	14.5	15.6	-1.08	14.7	17.5	-2.87
Shawne Williams	37	35	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.03	-14	4	-18	15.6	14.2	1.36	14.0	16.2	-2.17
Shabazz Napier	63	60	-0.69	0.19	-0.88	-0.10	-20	10	-30	15.8	12.8	3.01	15.4	15.4	-0.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.5,0.47,0.38,0.39,0.39,0.4,0.34,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.31,0.4,0.33,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.29,0.36,0.42,0.44,0.27,0.31,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.48,0.38,0.35,0.24,0.21,0.16,0.1,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 101, SAC 86	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.41,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.31,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.27,0.25,0.2,0.18,0.27,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.25,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.48,0.42,0.32,0.21,0.15,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	95.2%
ATL 91, DET 82	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.31,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.38,0.31,0.25,0.29,0.32,0.27,0.24,0.28,0.31,0.3,0.37,0.35,0.31,0.28,0.24,0.3,0.32,0.32,0.22,0.21,0.16,0.11,0.1,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	94.1%
LAC 114, ORL 90	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.4,0.36,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.29,0.27,0.32,0.34,0.29,0.31,0.36,0.36,0.27,0.32,0.31,0.28,0.26,0.3,0.26,0.32,0.28,0.21,0.19,0.11,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.9%