NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	102		Excitement	4.6 [914]		MVP	Mike Conley (MEM): +24.4%
Los Angeles Lakers	90		Comeback	2.4 [1017]		LVP	Zach Randolph (MEM): -16.5%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Conley	0.24	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.18,0.22,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.19	0.06	0.00	12	86%	0.25	1	-0.00	4	100%	0.01
Tayshaun Prince	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.04	0.00	7	64%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.09	0.01	0.04	7	93%	0.07	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kosta Koufos	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.02	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Courtney Lee	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	-0.01	-0.04	11	45%	0.02	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marc Gasol	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	16	49%	0.07	3	-0.07	5	80%	0.00
Nick Calathes	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.04	4	25%	-0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ed Davis	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.08	-0.01	-0.04	8	25%	-0.04	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Allen	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.09	-0.01	-0.06	12	33%	-0.04	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zach Randolph	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.07	-0.05	0.04	8	50%	-0.07	4	-0.10	4	50%	-0.03

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jodie Meeks	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.14	0.01	0.03	12	69%	0.13	0	0.00	5	100%	0.03
Nick Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.03	-0.02	12	58%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	0.00	0.03	12	62%	0.04	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Kelly	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	8	40%	0.03	2	-0.04	4	75%	0.00
Robert Sacre	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	8	50%	-0.01	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Jordan Hill	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	9	56%	0.02	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Farmar	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.15	-0.02	-0.06	10	25%	-0.01	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Kendall Marshall	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.04	-0.05	0.02	9	50%	-0.04	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.7	2.0	27.0	15.6	23.4	2.4	26.2	119.3
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +19.5%

LAL -10.6%

MEM +30.0%

MEM +10.5%

MEM +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	LAL	NBA	MEM	LAL	NBA
this game	16.5	14.3	15.1	108.5	96.8	105.2
season	16.4	14.0		104.5	102.9
opponent	14.8	15.2		108.9	103.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	17.2	15.2	15.6	18.0	16.5
LAL	13.3	13.6	16.4	13.9	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marc Gasol	70	68	0.69	-0.19	0.89	-0.01	24	-12	36	16.8	15.7	1.05	14.6	13.4	1.18
Mike Conley	67	67	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.02	14	-2	16	17.0	15.3	1.67	14.0	15.0	-0.92
Tayshaun Prince	42	42	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.04	12	0	12	16.3	16.7	-0.37	14.9	13.8	1.10
Zach Randolph	62	60	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.10	9	3	6	16.0	17.5	-1.53	14.4	14.1	0.33
Mike Miller	44	43	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.05	7	5	2	17.1	16.0	1.09	15.4	13.4	2.04
Courtney Lee	60	59	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.16	3	9	-6	16.6	16.4	0.21	13.4	15.8	-2.35
Tony Allen	36	37	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.03	4	8	-4	17.0	16.2	0.83	14.3	14.3	0.04
Ed Davis	37	38	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.02	4	8	-4	17.5	15.8	1.64	14.4	14.2	0.20
Nick Calathes	31	29	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.09	-2	14	-16	14.0	17.7	-3.71	14.6	14.2	0.41
Beno Udrih	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	14	-16	19.0	16.4	2.57	7.5	14.5	-6.95
James Johnson	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	14	-16	19.0	16.4	2.57	7.5	14.5	-6.95
Kosta Koufos	17	18	-0.20	0.70	-0.89	0.13	-11	23	-34	14.8	16.9	-2.03	13.2	14.6	-1.34

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wesley Johnson	79	80	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.24	4	-16	20	13.7	17.6	-3.93	16.7	15.4	1.25
Jordan Farmar	48	47	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.04	-8	-4	-4	15.2	13.3	1.92	14.7	18.3	-3.53
Ryan Kelly	47	50	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.23	1	-13	14	14.3	14.3	0.08	16.2	16.9	-0.70
Kendall Marshall	55	57	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.36	1	-13	14	13.0	16.2	-3.18	17.8	14.4	3.39
Nick Young	48	48	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	0.17	-18	6	-24	15.9	12.6	3.21	16.6	16.3	0.32
Robert Sacre	61	59	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.22	-5	-7	2	14.2	14.4	-0.16	15.9	17.5	-1.68
Jordan Hill	53	54	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	0.10	-16	4	-20	14.2	14.5	-0.35	17.0	15.8	1.20
Jodie Meeks	74	75	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.01	-19	7	-26	14.4	13.8	0.58	16.6	15.9	0.68

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.69,0.6,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.54,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.35,0.32,0.28,0.23,0.14,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 136, SAS 106	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.5,0.42,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.35,0.35,0.31,0.21,0.17,0.18,0.19,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.4%
DAL 105, MIN 88	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.58,0.52,0.59,0.62,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.51,0.5,0.58,0.54,0.62,0.6,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.62,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.28,0.22,0.21,0.18,0.08,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.4%
ORL 95, SAS 83	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.56,0.54,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.42,0.54,0.49,0.41,0.43,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.32,0.27,0.23,0.16,0.15,0.1,0.13,0.07,0.14,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.2%