NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	109		Excitement	5.3 [783]		MVP	Patty Mills (SAS): +14.9%
Dallas Mavericks	100		Comeback	1.8 [490]		LVP	Devin Harris (DAL): -11.6%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Patty Mills	0.15	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.11,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.07	0.03	-0.05	25	50%	0.15	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Danny Green	0.11	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.14	0.01	0.03	9	83%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0.10	0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.04	0.03	-0.04	12	61%	0.17	3	-0.07	9	67%	-0.03
Marco Belinelli	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.00	0.02	-0.04	7	44%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tiago Splitter	0.03	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	10	60%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Cory Joseph	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	0	75%	0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Jeff Ayres	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Austin Daye	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kawhi Leonard	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	14	48%	-0.01	2	-0.02	5	80%	0.01
Manu Ginobili	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.02	8	62%	0.04	5	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Boris Diaw	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	3	0%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.02	0.01	14	58%	0.08	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.02
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.07	-0.01	0.02	7	86%	0.10	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	-0.00	-0.01	5	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Brandan Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	6	67%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	-0.03	-0.01	22	50%	0.01	2	-0.00	4	100%	0.01
Bernard James	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Ellington	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shane Larkin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeJuan Blair	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	3	62%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Jae Crowder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.02	-0.01	0.05	11	58%	-0.01	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Samuel Dalembert	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	5	20%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.07	-0.03	0.01	8	36%	-0.07	2	-0.04	6	83%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	3.7	34.7	17.8	28.2	3.4	35.5	149.6
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +40.4%

DAL -1.2%

SAS +15.3%

DAL -4.0%

DAL -0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DAL	NBA	SAS	DAL	NBA
this game	15.3	15.0	15.1	114.7	105.3	105.2
season	15.0	15.3		109.8	109.0
opponent	15.0	15.0		107.0	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	13.3	16.2	13.6	18.5	15.3
DAL	17.4	13.2	14.6	14.9	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tiago Splitter	56	57	0.91	-0.41	1.32	-0.23	39	-30	69	13.7	17.6	-3.91	16.4	12.9	3.47
Patty Mills	71	70	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.02	26	-17	43	14.8	16.8	-1.95	15.3	14.0	1.33
Kawhi Leonard	71	72	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.26	10	-1	11	15.4	15.1	0.28	15.4	13.7	1.64
Danny Green	43	45	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.04	13	-4	17	15.0	15.7	-0.70	15.3	14.7	0.55
Tim Duncan	78	77	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.29	-4	13	-17	15.8	13.3	2.49	15.0	14.9	0.04
Manu Ginobili	58	57	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.28	-6	15	-21	15.5	15.0	0.51	14.8	15.3	-0.56
Marco Belinelli	40	39	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.13	-3	12	-15	16.8	14.3	2.53	13.5	16.0	-2.49
Jeff Ayres	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	9	-9	12.0	15.4	-3.37	16.0	15.0	1.03
Austin Daye	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	9	-9	12.0	15.4	-3.37	16.0	15.0	1.03
Boris Diaw	40	40	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.31	-15	24	-39	15.6	15.2	0.41	13.2	16.3	-3.07
Cory Joseph	16	16	-0.28	0.78	-1.06	0.16	-15	24	-39	17.1	15.0	2.15	14.6	15.1	-0.50

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Devin Harris	53	54	0.14	-0.64	0.78	-0.50	22	-31	53	13.7	16.6	-2.90	16.8	13.4	3.38
DeJuan Blair	17	17	0.09	-0.59	0.69	-0.14	8	-17	25	14.9	15.0	-0.05	15.9	15.2	0.74
Jae Crowder	18	19	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.04	2	-11	13	14.7	15.1	-0.39	16.2	15.1	1.09
Bernard James	1	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-9	9	16.0	15.0	1.03	12.0	15.4	-3.37
Wayne Ellington	1	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-9	9	16.0	15.0	1.03	12.0	15.4	-3.37
Shane Larkin	1	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-9	9	16.0	15.0	1.03	12.0	15.4	-3.37
Brandan Wright	36	34	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.05	1	-10	11	14.2	15.4	-1.22	14.9	15.6	-0.66
Vince Carter	55	54	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.27	2	-11	13	14.7	15.3	-0.60	15.3	15.4	-0.05
Dirk Nowitzki	67	69	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.13	-10	1	-11	14.8	15.5	-0.74	15.3	15.3	0.04
Monta Ellis	73	73	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.20	-8	-1	-7	15.3	13.8	1.57	15.6	14.4	1.27
Shawn Marion	60	59	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.06	-17	8	-25	15.5	14.1	1.41	14.6	16.6	-2.01
Samuel Dalembert	39	40	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	0.10	-23	14	-37	16.2	14.2	1.99	14.2	16.2	-2.01
Jose Calderon	54	53	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.00	-22	13	-35	15.4	14.4	0.99	15.1	15.6	-0.46

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.48,0.44,0.34,0.35,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.56,0.61,0.52,0.39,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.33,0.24,0.36,0.26,0.2,0.16,0.18,0.17,0.28,0.1,0.05,0.02,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.01,0,0,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 117, TOR 105	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.31,0.37,0.35,0.33,0.32,0.35,0.4,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.54,0.47,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.4,0.37,0.42,0.27,0.29,0.21,0.15,0.19,0.17,0.19,0.18,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.4%
PHI 105, CHA 80	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.41,0.33,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.27,0.21,0.2,0.18,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.0%
DET 124, PHI 103	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.43,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.49,0.51,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.3,0.27,0.18,0.15,0.16,0.13,0.19,0.13,0.1,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.9%