NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	100		Excitement	7.7 [309]		MVP	LeBron James (MIA): +43.0%
Cleveland Cavaliers	96		Comeback	1.8 [904]		LVP	Dion Waiters (CLE): -26.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0.43	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.08,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.24,0.23,0.23,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.24,0.24,0.22,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.38,0.43	0.39	0.08	0.04	19	84%	0.43	0	0.00	13	69%	0.02
Chris Bosh	0.23	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.25,0.29,0.23,0.23	0.05	0.18	0.00	16	58%	0.32	2	-0.08	4	75%	0.02
Greg Oden	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.02	-0.01	6	46%	0.05	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Udonis Haslem	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Toney Douglas	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	7	53%	0.08	3	-0.10	3	67%	-0.00
Shane Battier	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	3	12%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Andersen	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.07	-0.06	-0.00	2	30%	-0.05	2	-0.08	6	50%	-0.06
Ray Allen	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.09,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.03	-0.10	0.00	13	50%	-0.04	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.02
Mario Chalmers	-0.20	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.12	-0.10	-0.01	7	21%	-0.13	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jarrett Jack	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.11	0.11	0.12	0.01	0.01	13	73%	0.20	3	-0.09	4	50%	-0.03
Tristan Thompson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	-0.00	4	71%	0.08	2	-0.04	6	67%	-0.01
Alonzo Gee	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.01	11	55%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Matthew Dellavedova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.01	-0.01	3	71%	0.06	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
CJ Miles	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anderson Varejao	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.05,0.05,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.05	-0.07	0.01	11	67%	0.06	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Tyler Zeller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	1	75%	0.03	1	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Spencer Hawes	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.02	-0.11	0.01	10	50%	-0.07	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02
Dion Waiters	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.23,-0.27	-0.27	-0.16	-0.13	-0.02	19	40%	-0.10	6	-0.16	5	80%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	2.5	31.4	14.8	28.2	2.4	38.5	141.6
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +14.3%

MIA +11.0%

MIA +11.9%

MIA +16.7%

CLE -3.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CLE	NBA	MIA	CLE	NBA
this game	15.6	14.9	15.1	105.3	102.1	105.2
season	15.6	15.2		109.7	102.8
opponent	15.3	15.8		106.5	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.5	17.1	15.2	15.6	15.6
CLE	13.2	15.6	15.5	15.7	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LeBron James	83	82	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.39	11	-7	18	15.2	18.3	-3.16	14.9	14.9	-0.01
Mario Chalmers	65	63	0.61	-0.12	0.73	0.35	9	-5	14	15.5	15.6	-0.09	15.1	14.6	0.48
Chris Bosh	78	75	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.43	5	-1	6	15.7	14.8	0.91	15.0	14.6	0.41
Udonis Haslem	18	17	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.34	8	-4	12	12.6	16.3	-3.72	15.0	14.9	0.12
Ray Allen	58	57	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.47	-5	9	-14	15.6	15.5	0.13	14.8	15.0	-0.20
Greg Oden	30	30	0.15	0.35	-0.21	-0.09	8	-4	12	15.2	15.7	-0.49	14.9	14.9	-0.06
Toney Douglas	42	43	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.01	0	4	-4	16.0	15.2	0.77	14.8	15.0	-0.17
Norris Cole	34	34	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.04	0	4	-4	15.4	15.7	-0.24	14.7	15.0	-0.26
Chris Andersen	39	39	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.12	-6	10	-16	17.0	14.6	2.39	15.2	14.7	0.56
Shane Battier	28	30	-0.35	0.85	-1.21	-0.06	-10	14	-24	16.1	15.3	0.81	14.4	15.1	-0.74

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Matthew Dellavedova	48	46	0.26	-0.76	1.01	-0.13	13	-17	30	13.9	15.9	-1.98	15.6	15.5	0.12
Tyler Zeller	28	27	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.10	3	-7	10	14.3	15.2	-0.83	16.7	15.1	1.64
CJ Miles	5	5	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.04	-5	1	-6	12.6	15.0	-2.43	14.2	15.6	-1.44
Anderson Varejao	49	49	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.40	7	-11	18	14.7	15.1	-0.40	16.6	14.5	2.03
Tristan Thompson	43	45	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.01	-11	7	-18	15.0	14.8	0.22	14.4	16.7	-2.30
Jarrett Jack	80	82	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.39	-2	-2	0	15.2	13.0	2.24	15.6	15.1	0.57
Spencer Hawes	68	69	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.25	-7	3	-10	15.2	14.1	1.09	15.2	16.5	-1.34
Alonzo Gee	70	70	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.40	-4	0	-4	15.0	14.7	0.32	15.1	16.9	-1.83
Dion Waiters	79	82	-0.69	0.19	-0.87	-0.28	-14	10	-24	15.2	13.2	2.03	16.0	13.2	2.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.45,0.33,0.34,0.32,0.3,0.31,0.3,0.33,0.4,0.26,0.3,0.36,0.32,0.38,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.37,0.45,0.54,0.61,0.58,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.48,0.62,0.48,0.47,0.41,0.41,0.39,0.25,0.21,0.14,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 100, ORL 95	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.35,0.33,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.58,0.45,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.48,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.57,0.58,0.63,0.53,0.46,0.29,0.25,0.11,0.1,0.01,0	92.0%
NYK 91, CHI 86	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.37,0.32,0.29,0.26,0.22,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.28,0.26,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.44,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.38,0.37,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.46,0.48,0.57,0.47,0.37,0.41,0.47,0.22,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.16,0	91.9%
BOS 111, MEM 110	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.36,0.28,0.32,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.25,0.38,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.41,0.37,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.59,0.63,0.52,0.52,0.38,0.48,0.38,0.33,0.53,0.41,0.41,0.47,0.38,0.21,0.15,0.04,0	91.7%