NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	79		Excitement	5.9 [654]		MVP	Courtney Lee (MEM): +10.0%
Atlanta Hawks	76		Comeback	3.0 [341]		LVP	Paul Millsap (ATL): -17.5%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Courtney Lee	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.05	0.04	-0.01	12	56%	0.10	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Mike Miller	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09	0.02	0.07	0.00	7	57%	0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ed Davis	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zach Randolph	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.01	16	62%	0.13	5	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kosta Koufos	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	6	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darius Morris	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	5	50%	0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	9	44%	-0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Marc Gasol	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12	-0.10	-0.01	0.00	14	29%	-0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nick Calathes	-0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.19,-0.19,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17	-0.14	-0.04	-0.01	15	33%	-0.04	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Cartier Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	3	83%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gustavo Ayon	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Elton Brand	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	6	64%	0.06	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
DeMarre Carroll	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.02	11	54%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Kyle Korver	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	9	50%	0.02	5	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Mike Scott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.02	-0.00	5	0%	-0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Teague	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.11	-0.04	-0.00	10	36%	-0.04	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Louis Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.17	-0.17	-0.07	-0.09	-0.00	8	32%	-0.09	2	-0.07	3	33%	-0.02
Paul Millsap	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.2,-0.21,-0.17	-0.17	-0.03	-0.12	0.02	16	56%	-0.00	5	-0.17	4	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.7	1.7	24.1	15.5	22.6	2.5	29.4	119.5
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +12.5%

MEM +0.3%

MEM +19.5%

MEM +16.3%

MEM +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	ATL	NBA	MEM	ATL	NBA
this game	17.4	14.2	15.1	86.8	83.5	105.2
season	16.4	14.8		104.5	103.8
opponent	15.3	15.2		104.7	103.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	17.0	17.9	16.5	18.5	17.4
ATL	12.5	15.6	14.8	14.3	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Courtney Lee	72	72	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.32	10	-7	17	17.1	18.8	-1.72	14.2	14.4	-0.25
Darius Morris	37	38	0.54	-0.04	0.59	-0.04	20	-17	37	18.3	16.8	1.46	14.4	14.1	0.39
Marc Gasol	74	73	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.38	2	1	1	17.3	18.1	-0.78	14.1	14.7	-0.63
Zach Randolph	73	73	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.38	0	3	-3	17.3	18.1	-0.85	14.2	14.4	-0.21
Mike Miller	47	48	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.34	-2	5	-7	17.4	17.5	-0.09	14.3	14.1	0.24
James Johnson	38	38	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.04	6	-3	9	18.3	16.8	1.52	13.8	14.5	-0.65
Ed Davis	25	26	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.07	4	-1	5	18.4	17.0	1.39	14.8	14.0	0.88
Kosta Koufos	10	10	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.00	0	3	-3	17.2	17.5	-0.26	13.8	14.3	-0.47
Nick Calathes	58	57	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.46	-16	19	-35	17.1	18.0	-0.94	14.4	13.9	0.44
Tayshaun Prince	21	20	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.12	-9	12	-21	16.6	17.7	-1.11	13.9	14.3	-0.35

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cartier Martin	16	16	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.09	5	-8	13	14.7	14.1	0.64	18.6	17.2	1.45
Gustavo Ayon	43	43	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-7	11	14.4	14.0	0.38	16.2	18.5	-2.31
Kyle Korver	73	75	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.42	14	-17	31	14.5	13.1	1.45	16.9	20.0	-3.12
Paul Millsap	69	70	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.37	10	-13	23	14.4	13.6	0.77	16.8	19.6	-2.85
Elton Brand	42	41	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.22	-8	5	-13	13.6	14.7	-1.07	18.7	16.4	2.33
Louis Williams	49	48	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.19	-9	6	-15	13.7	14.9	-1.23	18.3	16.4	1.87
Mike Scott	28	28	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.12	-12	9	-21	14.3	14.2	0.15	19.1	16.7	2.37
Jeff Teague	60	59	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.22	-11	8	-19	14.3	14.0	0.33	17.4	17.5	-0.06
DeMarre Carroll	75	75	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.32	-8	5	-13	14.1	14.7	-0.64	17.2	18.6	-1.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.63,0.64,0.68,0.73,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.53,0.52,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.53,0.45,0.55,0.52,0.44,0.36,0.22,0.15,0.18,0.11,0.15,0.14,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.04,0.05,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 94, PHI 87	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.62,0.57,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.62,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.64,0.52,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.4,0.25,0.26,0.16,0.15,0.2,0.23,0.08,0.15,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0	94.2%
IND 97, LAC 92	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.57,0.59,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.61,0.56,0.59,0.7,0.71,0.66,0.61,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.56,0.44,0.44,0.38,0.22,0.18,0.21,0.2,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.16,0	94.1%
POR 101, DAL 94	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.53,0.54,0.43,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.64,0.63,0.74,0.75,0.73,0.64,0.61,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.41,0.37,0.44,0.26,0.18,0.21,0.11,0.19,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.07,0.03,0.07,0,0	94.0%