NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	100		Excitement	7.4 [345]		MVP	Shawn Marion (DAL): +39.3%
Minnesota Timberwolves	98		Comeback	2.3 [361]		LVP	Monta Ellis (DAL): -29.6%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shawn Marion	0.39	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.33,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.39	0.28	0.14	0.03	19	84%	0.39	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandan Wright	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.09	0.06	-0.01	8	78%	0.17	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
DeJuan Blair	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.01	3	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Samuel Dalembert	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03	0.06	-0.01	0.02	3	90%	0.12	1	-0.09	4	75%	0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	17	43%	-0.04	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Jose Calderon	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	7	57%	0.01	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Shane Larkin	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	9	30%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.03
Jae Crowder	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	4	0%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	-0.30	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.18,-0.23,-0.23,-0.24,-0.24,-0.3	-0.14	-0.19	-0.03	14	29%	-0.22	3	-0.08	3	100%	0.01

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Love	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.18,0.15,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.24,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.12	0.12	0.18	-0.03	0.03	24	64%	0.14	1	-0.02	8	75%	0.01
Corey Brewer	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.00	-0.01	12	67%	0.13	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Pekovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.05,-0.03	-0.03	0.05	-0.07	0.01	13	56%	0.04	1	-0.07	6	100%	0.04
Robbie Hummel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	2	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dante Cunningham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	2	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Martin	0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	15	51%	-0.02	3	-0.06	7	86%	0.04
Alexey Shved	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	4	62%	0.03	5	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Rubio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.17	-0.17	-0.03	-0.12	0.02	3	50%	-0.02	2	-0.15	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.8	1.7	28.1	15.4	25.6	2.5	37.3	132.3
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +23.0%

MIN -1.4%

MIN -7.6%

DAL +31.6%

DAL +4.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	MIN	NBA	DAL	MIN	NBA
this game	15.9	14.6	15.1	106.4	103.2	105.2
season	15.3	14.6		109.0	107.3
opponent	14.5	15.0		104.7	107.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	13.4	15.6	17.6	17.1	15.9
MIN	15.4	15.1	12.4	15.6	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shawn Marion	64	64	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.57	7	-5	12	15.4	16.9	-1.54	14.7	14.4	0.32
Jose Calderon	71	71	0.77	-0.27	1.04	0.56	7	-5	12	15.7	16.4	-0.73	15.0	13.5	1.53
Monta Ellis	81	82	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.33	5	-3	8	15.4	18.6	-3.17	14.7	14.1	0.61
Samuel Dalembert	41	42	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.21	6	-4	10	14.4	17.0	-2.60	14.6	14.6	0.03
Vince Carter	45	45	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.22	2	0	2	16.7	15.1	1.55	15.3	14.0	1.35
Brandan Wright	31	33	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.12	1	1	0	17.3	15.2	2.10	15.5	14.1	1.36
Jae Crowder	32	32	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.10	-3	5	-8	17.1	15.3	1.79	14.7	14.6	0.08
DeJuan Blair	28	26	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.11	-4	6	-10	16.8	15.5	1.34	13.4	15.1	-1.67
Dirk Nowitzki	65	67	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.06	-6	8	-14	15.7	16.3	-0.57	14.0	16.1	-2.14
Shane Larkin	12	13	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	-0.07	-5	7	-12	16.5	15.8	0.71	12.2	15.0	-2.74

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Robbie Hummel	10	12	0.32	-0.82	1.14	0.11	7	-9	16	14.2	14.6	-0.45	18.6	15.5	3.10
Dante Cunningham	28	28	0.18	-0.68	0.87	0.18	0	-2	2	14.5	14.6	-0.09	16.7	15.5	1.23
Corey Brewer	67	69	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.31	10	-12	22	14.0	16.0	-2.04	15.8	16.0	-0.21
Alexey Shved	13	12	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	0.02	-3	1	-4	13.2	14.8	-1.59	17.1	15.7	1.38
Ricky Rubio	62	62	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.35	4	-6	10	14.0	15.7	-1.73	15.8	16.1	-0.37
Jose Juan Barea	33	32	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.09	-6	4	-10	15.7	14.0	1.73	16.1	15.8	0.37
Luc Mbah a Moute	29	25	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.15	-14	12	-26	15.8	14.1	1.67	16.0	15.8	0.21
Kevin Love	80	79	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.48	-3	1	-4	14.4	15.5	-1.03	15.6	17.2	-1.57
Nikola Pekovic	82	81	-0.62	0.12	-0.73	-0.59	-1	-1	0	14.8	13.5	1.32	15.8	16.2	-0.40
Kevin Martin	71	70	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.55	-4	2	-6	15.0	13.4	1.58	15.2	17.8	-2.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.41,0.41,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.44,0.44,0.37,0.32,0.3,0.22,0.19,0.17,0.14,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.1,0.13,0.26,0.16,0.31,0.26,0.32,0.5,0.43,0.57,0.56,0.63,0.59,0.6,0.53,0.31,0.07,0.15,0.28,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 89, SAC 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.33,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.17,0.14,0.27,0.33,0.4,0.46,0.57,0.57,0.76,0.63,0.53,0.46,0.39,0.45,0.28,0.22,0.27,0	91.6%
CHI 84, CLE 78	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.5,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.25,0.22,0.18,0.15,0.14,0.18,0.21,0.14,0.11,0.13,0.16,0.18,0.35,0.35,0.3,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.3,0.38,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.69,0.61,0.32,0.16,0.09,0.01,0	90.6%
BKN 102, PHX 100	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.42,0.33,0.29,0.33,0.3,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.25,0.22,0.18,0.17,0.1,0.15,0.13,0.14,0.18,0.26,0.28,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.54,0.66,0.47,0.57,0.63,0.64,0.41,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.16,0.23,0	90.5%