NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	108		Excitement	5.9 [609]		MVP	Greg Stiemsma (MIN): +15.0%
San Antonio Spurs	95		Comeback	2.1 [177]		LVP	Ricky Rubio (MIN): -7.4%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Greg Stiemsma	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.09	0.05	-0.01	8	75%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Williams	0.10	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.04	0.01	15	58%	0.17	2	-0.07	6	83%	0.01
Jose Juan Barea	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.06	0.05	-0.05	13	37%	0.06	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Mickael Gelabale	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	150%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chris Johnson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	62%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Dante Cunningham	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.02	0.03	7	62%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Chase Budinger	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	0.02	0.05	13	58%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Alexey Shved	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.01	5	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Andrei Kirilenko	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	6	38%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	-0.04	0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	10	45%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Rubio	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	10	55%	0.04	4	-0.12	2	50%	-0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeJuan Blair	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.01	0.06	-0.02	9	56%	0.09	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Gary Neal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.08	-0.01	0.02	12	65%	0.09	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Matt Bonner	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.00	4	87%	0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.09	0.00	0.07	5	90%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	10	52%	0.03	2	-0.04	9	100%	0.05
Nando De Colo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	4	40%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Danny Green	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	5	40%	-0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	-0.03	4	25%	-0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Cory Joseph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	5	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aron Baynes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	4	40%	0.03	2	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Kawhi Leonard	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	6	33%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	11	59%	0.07	5	-0.14	7	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	1.6	30.0	14.8	22.1	1.7	24.3	117.9
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +36.8%

SAS -9.9%

MIN +4.6%

MIN +15.9%

MIN +2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	SAS	NBA	MIN	SAS	NBA
this game	14.6	13.6	15.4	105.9	93.1	104.1
season	15.6	15.2		101.3	106.4
opponent	15.1	14.9		99.5	103.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	14.7	14.2	14.1	15.6	14.6
SAS	12.0	12.5	15.2	15.0	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derrick Williams	72	72	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.10	17	-4	21	13.8	16.6	-2.84	13.7	13.3	0.48
Andrei Kirilenko	43	43	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.02	13	0	13	14.6	14.6	0.00	14.1	13.3	0.80
Luke Ridnour	49	49	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.01	12	1	11	13.5	15.6	-2.11	13.4	13.8	-0.38
Greg Stiemsma	69	69	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.00	12	1	11	14.9	14.1	0.84	13.3	14.2	-0.89
Ricky Rubio	58	58	0.32	0.18	0.14	-0.00	11	2	9	13.8	15.8	-2.01	13.2	14.1	-0.85
Chase Budinger	48	49	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.06	6	7	-1	15.2	14.1	1.18	14.1	13.1	0.99
Alexey Shved	44	44	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.12	2	11	-9	15.8	13.8	2.01	14.1	13.2	0.85
Dante Cunningham	43	43	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.11	2	11	-9	16.0	13.7	2.29	13.9	13.4	0.52
Jose Juan Barea	53	53	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.11	1	12	-11	15.6	13.5	2.11	13.8	13.4	0.38
Chris Johnson	20	20	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.03	-5	18	-23	13.8	14.8	-0.97	13.4	13.6	-0.20
Mickael Gelabale	11	10	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	0.04	-6	19	-25	11.9	15.0	-3.05	9.1	14.1	-5.00

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Manu Ginobili	27	27	0.23	-0.73	0.96	-0.06	10	-23	33	11.1	14.5	-3.45	14.3	14.7	-0.45
Aron Baynes	26	26	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.15	2	-15	17	14.5	13.3	1.15	15.7	14.2	1.48
Tim Duncan	61	61	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.02	-5	-8	3	12.9	14.7	-1.88	14.0	15.6	-1.56
Tony Parker	58	58	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.05	-4	-9	5	13.5	13.8	-0.29	14.1	15.4	-1.33
Kawhi Leonard	58	58	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.03	-5	-8	3	13.6	13.6	0.07	13.4	16.2	-2.73
Gary Neal	45	43	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.15	-1	-12	11	13.4	13.8	-0.41	15.4	14.0	1.41
Patty Mills	16	17	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	0.01	-7	-6	-1	14.9	13.4	1.50	16.4	14.3	2.07
Cory Joseph	44	44	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.07	-9	-4	-5	13.8	13.5	0.29	15.4	14.1	1.33
Danny Green	35	35	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	0.08	-14	1	-15	14.3	13.3	1.03	14.3	14.8	-0.43
Nando De Colo	23	24	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.07	-9	-4	-5	15.0	13.2	1.85	15.6	14.3	1.25
DeJuan Blair	59	60	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.18	-6	-7	1	13.9	13.3	0.61	16.0	12.7	3.29
Matt Bonner	58	57	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.11	-17	4	-21	13.8	13.4	0.35	13.4	16.2	-2.85

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.53,0.46,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.38,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.45,0.45,0.35,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.46,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.63,0.57,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.38,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.3,0.18,0.24,0.19,0.08,0.02,0.03,0,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 100, CLE 91	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.47,0.39,0.4,0.38,0.43,0.41,0.38,0.36,0.42,0.4,0.45,0.44,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.57,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.37,0.29,0.28,0.3,0.34,0.18,0.21,0.16,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.02,0,0	94.1%
MIL 98, POR 92	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.47,0.42,0.35,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.3,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.4,0.39,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.4,0.3,0.22,0.21,0.17,0.19,0.06,0.09,0.03,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.04,0	93.8%
HOU 100, GSW 93	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.39,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.59,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.33,0.46,0.3,0.22,0.14,0.17,0.16,0.17,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.01,0	93.7%