NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	96		Excitement	7.2 [373]		MVP	Rashard Lewis (MIA): +16.3%
Cleveland Cavaliers	95		Comeback	3.2 [291]		LVP	Kyrie Irving (CLE): -24.2%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rashard Lewis	0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.17,0.16,0.16	0.06	0.07	-0.03	13	54%	0.18	1	-0.02	9	67%	-0.03
James Jones	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.08	0.07	-0.01	9	67%	0.18	1	-0.02	3	67%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0.12	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.06	0.06	-0.00	5	85%	0.17	2	-0.05	3	33%	-0.02
Mike Miller	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.03	-0.01	7	79%	0.13	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.03	0.01	2	87%	0.08	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Juwan Howard	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	7	47%	0.03	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Jarvis Varnado	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.04,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	11	44%	-0.01	4	-0.09	3	100%	0.01
Norris Cole	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.18	-0.02	-0.15	0.00	12	57%	-0.06	4	-0.12	4	50%	-0.20

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alonzo Gee	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.01	0.00	9	65%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dion Waiters	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	-0.00	0.00	14	55%	0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Kevin Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.00	6	56%	0.06	0	0.00	6	67%	0.00
Tyler Zeller	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	8	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaun Livingston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.01	6	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tristan Thompson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	0.01	14	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02
Omri Casspi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Marreese Speights	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	7	37%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Kyrie Irving	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.03,0.01,-0.07,-0.11,-0.24	-0.24	-0.09	-0.22	-0.06	19	40%	-0.17	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.8	2.4	27.2	14.8	26.2	1.8	35.2	130.5
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +67.0%

MIA +0.1%

MIA +11.4%

CLE -29.2%

MIA +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CLE	NBA	MIA	CLE	NBA
this game	17.1	16.2	15.4	110.3	110.5	104.1
season	15.7	15.5		110.2	102.5
opponent	15.2	15.9		107.7	102.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.8	17.1	14.7	20.0	17.1
CLE	16.0	17.1	16.6	14.9	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joel Anthony	57	56	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.36	6	-5	11	16.8	17.6	-0.79	16.4	15.7	0.68
Rashard Lewis	59	57	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.38	5	-4	9	17.1	17.1	0.01	16.4	15.8	0.63
James Jones	52	52	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.37	3	-2	5	16.9	17.5	-0.57	15.5	17.2	-1.66
Ray Allen	52	52	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.37	3	-2	5	16.9	17.5	-0.57	15.5	17.2	-1.66
Norris Cole	77	77	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.47	-3	4	-7	17.2	16.5	0.69	16.0	17.4	-1.42
Mike Miller	46	45	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.08	2	-1	3	17.1	17.1	-0.01	17.2	15.0	2.20
Juwan Howard	35	34	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.10	-2	3	-5	17.5	16.9	0.57	17.2	15.5	1.66
Jarvis Varnado	27	27	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	5	-9	17.3	17.0	0.32	15.7	16.4	-0.74
Chris Andersen	30	30	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.11	-5	6	-11	17.6	16.8	0.79	15.7	16.4	-0.68

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Jones	23	24	0.13	-0.63	0.76	-0.14	9	-10	19	16.3	16.1	0.12	18.7	16.5	2.20
Omri Casspi	19	19	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.07	5	-6	11	15.9	16.3	-0.36	18.9	16.6	2.28
Tyler Zeller	35	35	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.03	-1	0	-1	17.8	15.1	2.74	18.5	16.2	2.25
Alonzo Gee	47	47	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.00	-4	3	-7	17.0	15.2	1.73	17.9	16.1	1.79
Dion Waiters	49	48	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.39	7	-8	15	14.9	17.9	-2.97	17.4	16.7	0.72
Marreese Speights	33	33	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.06	-5	4	-9	15.0	16.9	-1.91	15.0	18.4	-3.36
Shaun Livingston	55	56	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.47	8	-9	17	15.5	17.5	-2.00	17.6	16.3	1.28
Kyrie Irving	65	67	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.39	-6	5	-11	16.2	16.2	-0.08	16.5	19.1	-2.58
Tristan Thompson	66	67	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.40	-8	7	-15	16.1	16.4	-0.36	16.6	19.0	-2.45
Wayne Ellington	38	39	-0.71	0.21	-0.92	-0.42	-10	9	-19	17.7	15.0	2.71	15.8	18.2	-2.44

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.68,0.61,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.62,0.67,0.72,0.73,0.64,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.4,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.41,0.22,0.27,0.28,0.3,0.29,0.15,0.13,0.21,0.07,0.1,0.14,0.19,0.22,0.19,0.29,0.09,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 100, WAS 94	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.63,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.3,0.29,0.32,0.26,0.34,0.44,0.37,0.25,0.19,0.13,0.18,0.2,0.19,0.1,0.12,0.18,0.1,0.11,0.06,0.04,0	93.1%
SAC 107, ORL 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.67,0.62,0.63,0.58,0.55,0.61,0.58,0.67,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.56,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.4,0.48,0.48,0.39,0.36,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.26,0.13,0.06,0.13,0.21,0.2,0.28,0.26,0.24,0.23,0.26,0.11,0.02,0,0	92.9%
ATL 91, UTA 84	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.57,0.57,0.56,0.61,0.63,0.67,0.63,0.62,0.68,0.72,0.66,0.64,0.77,0.73,0.67,0.7,0.61,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.33,0.33,0.29,0.26,0.23,0.27,0.27,0.11,0.13,0.15,0.16,0.18,0.06,0.05,0.17,0.06,0.17,0.25,0.15,0.03,0,0	92.8%