NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	85		Excitement	4.5 [942]		MVP	Josh McRoberts (CHA): +13.5%
Charlotte Bobcats	95		Comeback	1.4 [837]		LVP	JJ Redick (MIL): -10.1%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gustavo Ayon	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.03	-0.02	6	43%	0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.01
Ersan Ilyasova	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.01	10	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.13	-0.02	0.07	13	68%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Ekpe Udoh	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	1	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Ish Smith	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.15	0.01	-0.12	12	37%	0.06	6	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	6	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	18	42%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
John Henson	-0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.01	0.01	7	57%	0.00	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
JJ Redick	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.04	0.01	14	37%	-0.08	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh McRoberts	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.13	0.02	0.01	9	82%	0.16	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Jeff Taylor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.01	0.01	5	90%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Adrien	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	4	60%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	5	40%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kemba Walker	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.02	-0.01	18	50%	0.05	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.02
Bismack Biyombo	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.02	9	57%	0.04	3	-0.06	5	20%	-0.05
Jannero Pargo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	5	50%	0.02	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Henderson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.10	0.01	-0.06	18	31%	-0.03	1	-0.01	3	67%	-0.01
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.03	7	39%	-0.00	3	-0.08	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.0	2.5	25.1	14.6	25.0	1.5	34.3	126.1
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHA +25.1%

CHA +6.1%

CHA +31.5%

MIL -13.8%

CHA +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	CHA	NBA	MIL	CHA	NBA
this game	14.9	16.2	15.4	92.4	102.2	104.1
season	14.7	15.6		101.6	99.9
opponent	15.4	15.3		109.8	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	15.0	15.2	15.9	13.4	14.9
CHA	17.0	14.8	16.1	17.1	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gustavo Ayon	34	34	0.12	-0.62	0.73	-0.26	13	-23	36	13.1	15.9	-2.86	16.4	16.1	0.32
John Henson	54	55	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.22	1	-11	12	14.5	15.5	-1.04	16.5	15.9	0.62
Ersan Ilyasova	50	52	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.06	-6	-4	-2	15.1	14.7	0.37	16.3	16.1	0.16
Monta Ellis	58	58	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.00	-10	0	-10	14.9	14.9	0.06	16.0	16.6	-0.58
Mike Dunleavy	65	66	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.16	-6	-4	-2	14.2	16.6	-2.46	15.8	17.3	-1.44
JJ Redick	79	79	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.26	-3	-7	4	15.2	12.9	2.29	16.7	13.6	3.14
Ish Smith	46	48	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.16	-7	-3	-4	14.5	15.3	-0.87	16.0	16.5	-0.45
Luc Mbah a Moute	41	40	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	0.02	-15	5	-20	16.8	13.4	3.36	16.8	15.8	1.08
Ekpe Udoh	33	33	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	0.07	-17	7	-24	16.1	14.2	1.87	15.2	16.8	-1.68

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	57	58	0.55	-0.05	0.59	-0.07	21	-11	32	16.3	16.1	0.16	15.1	14.6	0.48
Josh McRoberts	71	71	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.19	7	3	4	17.3	13.0	4.30	15.3	13.5	1.77
Jeff Adrien	41	41	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.04	12	-2	14	15.3	17.0	-1.69	15.0	14.8	0.15
Jannero Pargo	25	25	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.07	7	3	4	14.9	16.7	-1.80	16.5	14.3	2.24
Gerald Henderson	66	65	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.14	4	6	-2	17.1	14.2	2.84	14.6	15.7	-1.10
Jeff Taylor	27	27	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.07	6	4	2	14.2	17.1	-2.84	15.7	14.6	1.10
Kemba Walker	68	67	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.14	3	7	-4	16.7	14.9	1.80	14.3	16.5	-2.24
Bismack Biyombo	74	72	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.19	1	9	-8	15.8	18.0	-2.22	14.4	16.5	-2.06
Ben Gordon	36	34	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.28	-11	21	-32	16.1	16.3	-0.16	14.6	15.1	-0.48

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.52,0.53,0.62,0.67,0.69,0.78,0.7,0.79,0.78,0.77,0.7,0.7,0.63,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.64,0.64,0.77,0.82,0.81,0.83,0.86,0.94,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.93,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 90, MEM 108	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.5,0.48,0.5,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.56,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.69,0.68,0.66,0.73,0.82,0.75,0.7,0.58,0.55,0.54,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.68,0.75,0.86,0.89,0.9,0.92,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.95,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.3%
MIN 90, PHX 108	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.62,0.69,0.71,0.79,0.77,0.82,0.79,0.72,0.75,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.74,0.74,0.79,0.88,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.2%
WAS 80, SAS 94	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.67,0.66,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.77,0.75,0.67,0.59,0.6,0.64,0.67,0.64,0.71,0.71,0.84,0.83,0.87,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.95,0.93,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%