NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	83		Excitement	3.0 [1194]		MVP	Alexey Shved (MIN): +13.8%
Minnesota Timberwolves	107		Comeback	2.4 [112]		LVP	Tiago Splitter (SAS): -17.0%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Jackson	0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.00	-0.02	10	64%	0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Nando De Colo	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.11	0.00	0.09	6	81%	0.02	0	0.00	4	100%	0.00
Danny Green	0.00	0,0,0.03,0.02,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	-0.01	-0.03	10	50%	0.02	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Cory Joseph	0.00	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	0.00	0.03	9	68%	0.03	3	-0.03	4	100%	0.00
Aron Baynes	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeJuan Blair	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	0.00	0.03	2	100%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Boris Diaw	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.13	0.02	-0.09	11	27%	0.03	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Gary Neal	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patty Mills	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.00	0.03	7	50%	-0.03	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Matt Bonner	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.13,-0.12,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.11	-0.02	-0.01	10	29%	-0.07	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.01
Tiago Splitter	-0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.16	-0.03	-0.03	10	18%	-0.09	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alexey Shved	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.09	0.01	-0.04	8	89%	0.14	3	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.10	0.00	0.05	14	61%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Rubio	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	-0.03	17	57%	0.08	4	-0.03	3	67%	-0.00
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.09	0.00	0.05	9	78%	0.04	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Gelabale	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	5	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dante Cunningham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	11	37%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Greg Stiemsma	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	60%	0.01	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Williams	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	10	48%	0.02	3	-0.05	7	43%	-0.02
Chris Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	3	60%	0.00	3	-0.03	4	0%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	1.5	27.3	15.6	27.7	2.0	27.3	125.4
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +39.8%

SAS -2.3%

SAS -3.9%

MIN +16.2%

MIN +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	MIN	NBA	SAS	MIN	NBA
this game	14.8	15.4	15.4	87.4	111.5	104.1
season	15.2	15.6		106.4	101.3
opponent	14.9	15.1		103.4	99.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.0	17.8	12.6	14.4	14.8
MIN	15.0	18.2	14.5	14.4	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aron Baynes	20	20	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	0.11	-4	-20	16	13.9	15.0	-1.14	14.5	15.6	-1.02
Cory Joseph	51	52	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	0.02	-1	-23	22	15.1	14.4	0.69	14.7	16.1	-1.36
Matt Bonner	38	37	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.18	5	-29	34	14.9	14.7	0.25	16.4	14.7	1.67
Stephen Jackson	53	54	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.23	3	-27	30	14.3	15.5	-1.21	15.4	15.3	0.08
Tiago Splitter	48	46	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.07	-3	-21	18	14.3	15.3	-1.03	14.9	15.8	-0.85
Nando De Colo	41	40	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.05	-5	-19	14	13.6	15.7	-2.09	16.1	14.8	1.32
Gary Neal	13	14	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	0.12	-12	-12	0	16.5	14.5	1.92	16.6	15.1	1.51
Patty Mills	51	50	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	0.19	-15	-9	-6	13.7	16.1	-2.36	15.3	15.4	-0.07
Boris Diaw	45	47	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.28	-19	-5	-14	14.3	15.2	-0.93	15.4	15.3	0.06
DeJuan Blair	27	30	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.16	-17	-7	-10	16.4	14.2	2.19	16.6	14.8	1.76
Danny Green	48	47	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	0.30	-22	-2	-20	15.9	13.7	2.13	14.9	15.8	-0.94
Manu Ginobili	40	43	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	0.38	-30	6	-36	16.3	13.7	2.63	14.6	16.0	-1.40

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dante Cunningham	48	48	0.58	-0.08	0.66	-0.33	31	-7	38	15.6	15.1	0.50	15.9	13.6	2.30
Alexey Shved	59	59	0.57	-0.07	0.64	-0.13	24	0	24	15.4	15.2	0.22	14.8	14.9	-0.10
Jose Juan Barea	49	48	0.57	-0.07	0.63	-0.05	21	3	18	16.3	14.3	1.99	15.2	14.4	0.78
Chris Johnson	42	40	0.46	0.04	0.42	-0.16	21	3	18	16.2	14.7	1.44	16.2	13.8	2.37
Ricky Rubio	68	69	0.29	0.21	0.08	-0.39	23	1	22	15.5	15.1	0.40	15.2	13.8	1.42
Mickael Gelabale	53	50	0.16	0.34	-0.19	-0.11	9	15	-6	14.9	15.9	-1.00	15.6	13.9	1.65
Derrick Williams	50	50	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.05	-2	26	-28	15.0	15.7	-0.70	13.8	15.9	-2.15
Luke Ridnour	60	60	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.04	-3	27	-30	14.5	16.8	-2.32	13.2	17.6	-4.39
Greg Stiemsma	51	51	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.06	-4	28	-32	15.1	15.7	-0.59	13.9	15.8	-1.85

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.38,0.34,0.31,0.3,0.35,0.4,0.33,0.36,0.4,0.49,0.56,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.61,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.77,0.82,0.88,0.86,0.88,0.94,0.97,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 113, SAC 135	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.37,0.35,0.37,0.33,0.35,0.4,0.46,0.52,0.51,0.6,0.64,0.6,0.69,0.7,0.71,0.71,0.79,0.8,0.86,0.86,0.91,0.88,0.89,0.93,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.9%
PHI 84, IND 109	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.37,0.37,0.38,0.49,0.48,0.53,0.62,0.71,0.71,0.71,0.68,0.71,0.71,0.72,0.81,0.84,0.93,0.96,0.91,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.7%
SAC 101, GSW 120	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.52,0.47,0.58,0.69,0.62,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.73,0.74,0.7,0.76,0.78,0.81,0.86,0.92,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.7%