NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	96		Excitement	9.7 [79]		MVP	LeBron James (MIA): +38.8%
Miami Heat	97		Comeback	13.2 [222]		LVP	Chris Bosh (MIA): -29.0%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Vucevic	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.27,0.27,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.14	0.07	0.00	16	71%	0.25	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Andrew Nicholson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	5	80%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Harkless	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.01	9	67%	0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
E'Twaun Moore	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.2,-0.2,-0.08,-0.08	-0.11	0.01	-0.02	18	43%	0.14	6	-0.23	1	100%	0.01
Al Harrington	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.12	-0.03	-0.09	-0.00	5	40%	-0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
DeQuan Jones	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.14	-0.05	-0.09	0.00	2	0%	-0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tobias Harris	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17	-0.05	-0.12	0.00	15	46%	-0.03	3	-0.14	5	60%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	-0.26	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.11,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.26	-0.08	-0.19	-0.00	16	37%	-0.23	2	-0.03	3	100%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.22,0.13,0.13,-0.01,0.39	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.01	14	65%	0.49	2	-0.11	12	92%	0.05
Dwyane Wade	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.23,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.08	0.08	0.10	-0.03	-0.00	16	67%	0.11	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.04
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.05	-0.01	3	71%	0.08	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	-0.01	3	80%	0.06	3	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	3	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	8	31%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21	-0.21	-0.07	-0.14	-0.00	8	28%	-0.16	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.3,-0.4,-0.29	-0.29	-0.08	-0.22	-0.01	15	45%	-0.06	4	-0.23	8	87%	0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	2.3	29.6	15.8	24.3	2.7	43.1	140.0
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +26.6%

MIA +17.4%

ORL -9.1%

ORL -0.1%

MIA +15.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	MIA	NBA	ORL	MIA	NBA
this game	16.8	14.0	15.4	102.1	104.3	104.1
season	15.5	15.7		100.3	110.2
opponent	15.9	15.3		102.4	107.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	16.2	17.4	15.0	18.8	16.8
MIA	13.8	11.9	16.3	13.9	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Vucevic	82	81	0.48	-0.98	1.47	0.22	9	-10	19	17.2	14.5	2.67	14.0	13.6	0.43
Tobias Harris	55	56	0.48	-0.98	1.46	0.30	6	-7	13	17.6	15.8	1.81	13.8	14.2	-0.43
Maurice Harkless	76	77	0.34	-0.84	1.19	0.11	8	-9	17	16.5	18.1	-1.52	14.2	12.9	1.31
Andrew Nicholson	34	34	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.05	1	-2	3	15.7	17.5	-1.76	14.9	13.4	1.46
Beno Udrih	10	10	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	0.06	-10	9	-19	16.2	16.9	-0.70	13.0	14.1	-1.07
Jameer Nelson	84	82	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.54	9	-10	19	16.9	16.2	0.70	14.2	12.0	2.22
E'Twaun Moore	31	31	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.51	8	-9	17	17.6	16.4	1.17	15.5	13.2	2.39
DeQuan Jones	13	13	-0.97	0.47	-1.44	-0.65	-11	10	-21	17.5	16.7	0.82	9.6	14.7	-5.05
Arron Afflalo	72	69	-0.97	0.47	-1.44	-0.59	-13	12	-25	16.5	17.9	-1.35	13.3	15.8	-2.47
Al Harrington	13	12	-1.06	0.56	-1.62	-0.71	-12	11	-23	15.3	17.1	-1.77	13.6	14.0	-0.43

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LeBron James	74	76	0.79	-0.29	1.09	0.56	8	-7	15	13.7	14.9	-1.24	16.6	17.9	-1.38
Chris Bosh	65	66	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.58	5	-4	9	13.9	14.1	-0.21	16.7	17.1	-0.34
Dwyane Wade	75	75	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.50	5	-4	9	14.3	12.6	1.67	17.2	15.4	1.77
Ray Allen	45	45	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.48	2	-1	3	13.3	14.6	-1.29	16.6	17.1	-0.48
Shane Battier	52	53	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.43	-5	6	-11	14.2	13.6	0.62	17.5	15.9	1.60
Udonis Haslem	34	34	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.05	-1	2	-3	14.9	13.4	1.46	15.7	17.5	-1.76
Mike Miller	7	8	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.01	-2	3	-5	11.4	14.2	-2.73	17.7	16.7	1.01
Mario Chalmers	44	46	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	-0.13	1	0	1	14.2	13.8	0.38	16.8	16.9	-0.13
Norris Cole	41	39	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	-0.03	-4	5	-9	13.7	14.2	-0.53	16.9	16.8	0.07
Chris Andersen	28	28	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	-0.11	-4	5	-9	14.1	13.9	0.21	17.1	16.7	0.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.65,0.68,0.74,0.75,0.71,0.67,0.66,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.79,0.78,0.88,0.94,0.94,0.9,0.91,0.84,0.89,0.85,0.84,0.8,0.86,0.72,0.62,0.62,0.47,0.37,0.32,0.53,0.36,0.27,0.38,0.46,0.45,0.08,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 87, SEA 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.57,0.65,0.65,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.71,0.68,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.65,0.72,0.79,0.78,0.8,0.83,0.82,0.86,0.81,0.77,0.8,0.81,0.76,0.68,0.77,0.79,0.83,0.8,0.82,0.66,0.62,0.7,0.62,0.53,0.47,0.35,0.4,0.39,0.46,0.15,0.26,1	88.8%
MEM 80, BOS 85	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.68,0.65,0.63,0.65,0.73,0.77,0.8,0.77,0.8,0.76,0.75,0.71,0.71,0.77,0.75,0.76,0.79,0.77,0.75,0.82,0.88,0.89,0.9,0.91,0.92,0.87,0.85,0.79,0.88,0.86,0.79,0.78,0.7,0.53,0.43,0.32,0.41,0.59,0.47,0.62,0.57,0.31,0.42,1	88.8%
ATL 107, LAC 108	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.66,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.71,0.69,0.79,0.75,0.8,0.79,0.81,0.7,0.8,0.84,0.74,0.8,0.87,0.88,0.84,0.88,0.79,0.7,0.67,0.64,0.62,0.66,0.53,0.41,0.19,0.21,0.19,0.33,0.31,0.28,0.09,0.42,1	88.5%