NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	99		Excitement	7.7 [298]		MVP	Shane Battier (MIA): +27.3%
New York Knicks	93		Comeback	8.3 [266]		LVP	J.R. Smith (NYK): -20.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shane Battier	0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.16	0.11	0.00	4	150%	0.27	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.19,0.19	0.06	0.13	0.01	23	56%	0.23	2	-0.05	6	50%	-0.04
Chris Bosh	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,0,0.03,0.03	-0.04	0.06	-0.01	17	43%	0.07	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Udonis Haslem	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	4	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Dwyane Wade	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,0.01,-0.05,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	16	54%	0.12	4	-0.15	5	80%	-0.01
Ray Allen	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	7	44%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Norris Cole	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	4	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.11	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	5	55%	-0.02	4	-0.09	1	100%	0.00

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.11	-0.02	-0.01	7	100%	0.14	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.13,0.19,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.16	-0.05	0.03	19	62%	0.14	1	-0.05	14	93%	0.05
Amar'e Stoudemire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.00	7	67%	0.11	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.03
Tyson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.04	0.01	7	62%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
James White	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Steve Novak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Iman Shumpert	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	4	30%	-0.02	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Raymond Felton	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.09,-0.03,-0.1,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	0.01	0.01	8	45%	0.05	4	-0.14	4	75%	-0.00
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.16,-0.2	-0.20	-0.11	-0.11	-0.02	18	36%	-0.09	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.4	3.5	33.3	17.5	32.5	3.4	30.6	150.1
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +38.6%

NYK -10.1%

MIA +14.4%

MIA +7.2%

NYK -0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	NYK	NBA	MIA	NYK	NBA
this game	15.7	14.8	15.4	104.2	98.9	104.1
season	15.7	16.2		110.2	107.9
opponent	15.5	15.9		103.8	102.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.5	16.1	14.3	18.3	15.7
NYK	13.7	15.2	15.1	15.1	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LeBron James	86	85	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.31	9	-3	12	15.6	17.2	-1.66	14.5	17.2	-2.73
Shane Battier	42	42	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.40	5	1	4	17.2	14.5	2.73	15.4	14.2	1.17
Dwyane Wade	73	72	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.19	8	-2	10	16.2	14.2	2.00	14.6	15.4	-0.85
Mario Chalmers	59	60	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.14	9	-3	12	15.1	16.7	-1.53	14.8	14.6	0.17
Chris Andersen	23	23	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.14	4	2	2	14.6	16.1	-1.52	15.0	14.7	0.27
Chris Bosh	72	71	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.18	2	4	-2	16.1	14.6	1.52	14.7	15.0	-0.27
Norris Cole	31	29	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.19	0	6	-6	16.0	15.6	0.37	15.1	14.6	0.45
Udonis Haslem	35	35	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.10	9	-3	12	14.1	16.6	-2.49	14.2	15.1	-0.88
Rashard Lewis	12	12	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	0.00	-4	10	-14	15.9	15.7	0.23	15.7	14.6	1.04
Ray Allen	42	41	-0.19	0.69	-0.87	0.17	-12	18	-30	15.6	15.8	-0.22	14.9	14.7	0.22

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steve Novak	21	22	0.16	-0.66	0.83	-0.01	6	-12	18	16.8	14.2	2.65	15.7	15.7	-0.04
Amar'e Stoudemire	42	41	-0.07	-0.42	0.35	-0.02	-2	-4	2	15.3	14.3	0.96	15.6	15.8	-0.14
James White	15	17	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	0.07	-6	0	-6	15.3	14.7	0.61	16.2	15.6	0.63
Tyson Chandler	67	68	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.29	2	-8	10	14.8	14.7	0.07	15.9	15.2	0.69
Jason Kidd	65	65	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.38	2	-8	10	15.1	14.0	1.14	16.4	14.3	2.02
J.R. Smith	72	72	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.38	-2	-4	2	14.4	15.8	-1.39	15.1	17.8	-2.73
Iman Shumpert	43	43	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	0.05	-17	11	-28	14.9	14.6	0.28	15.6	15.8	-0.25
Raymond Felton	61	63	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.30	-6	0	-6	13.9	16.3	-2.34	15.5	16.1	-0.57
Carmelo Anthony	84	84	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.35	-7	1	-8	14.4	17.8	-3.41	15.8	15.2	0.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.44,0.48,0.51,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.61,0.67,0.73,0.82,0.86,0.79,0.77,0.75,0.73,0.67,0.77,0.8,0.72,0.79,0.86,0.85,0.66,0.7,0.53,0.58,0.47,0.36,0.59,0.54,0.25,0.28,0.29,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 112, SEA 109	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.67,0.8,0.73,0.74,0.77,0.8,0.78,0.86,0.77,0.74,0.76,0.73,0.86,0.75,0.66,0.66,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.31,0.3,0.34,0.26,0	92.7%
MIN 94, SAC 86	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.74,0.66,0.7,0.75,0.76,0.8,0.71,0.69,0.77,0.74,0.75,0.81,0.7,0.57,0.62,0.53,0.47,0.46,0.4,0.32,0.29,0.24,0.02,0	92.6%
MIL 92, VAN 87	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.43,0.47,0.48,0.49,0.56,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.59,0.61,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.74,0.72,0.87,0.81,0.84,0.84,0.88,0.89,0.83,0.89,0.81,0.74,0.66,0.53,0.54,0.37,0.31,0.6,0.47,0.47,0.28,0.32,0.08,0	91.5%