NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	101		Excitement	7.8 [284]		MVP	Ty Lawson (DEN): +25.0%
Denver Nuggets	97		Comeback	4.2 [99]		LVP	Andre Miller (DEN): -17.6%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luke Ridnour	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.22,0.22,0.21	-0.01	0.21	-0.01	14	50%	0.26	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.13,0.05,0.05,0.19,0.19	0.06	0.14	-0.00	10	71%	0.32	3	-0.13	4	75%	0.01
Derrick Williams	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.00	0.05	-0.00	7	50%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Nikola Pekovic	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	9	48%	0.02	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.02
Greg Stiemsma	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	3	33%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alexey Shved	0.00	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	13	61%	0.16	5	-0.16	2	100%	0.02
Dante Cunningham	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	5	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Andrei Kirilenko	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.02	9	54%	0.01	1	-0.03	8	62%	-0.02
Kevin Love	-0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	13	39%	-0.05	1	-0.01	5	80%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.13,0.23,0.23,0.28,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.11	0.16	0.02	9	76%	0.30	1	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Kosta Koufos	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.13	0.02	0.03	10	80%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenneth Faried	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.03	-0.00	5	67%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.01	0.03	-0.02	13	43%	0.09	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Timofey Mozgov	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	3	67%	0.07	1	-0.03	3	67%	0.00
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	11	50%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Anthony Randolph	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Evan Fournier	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Iguodala	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.00	0.02	16	36%	-0.05	1	-0.03	7	14%	-0.11
JaVale McGee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.10	0.00	-0.00	7	14%	-0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.17,-0.15,-0.18	-0.18	-0.03	-0.14	0.01	12	44%	-0.09	1	-0.09	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.5	1.8	29.2	16.0	25.9	2.4	26.1	126.9
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +26.3%

MIN +1.6%

MIN +39.2%

DEN -15.0%

DEN -2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	DEN	NBA	MIN	DEN	NBA
this game	16.8	15.2	15.4	113.5	106.6	104.1
season	15.6	14.4		101.3	108.4
opponent	15.4	14.9		104.0	103.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	13.9	17.6	18.5	17.6	16.8
DEN	16.1	16.0	13.6	15.1	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dante Cunningham	50	52	0.98	-0.48	1.46	0.33	22	-18	40	16.6	17.2	-0.62	15.3	15.0	0.28
Jose Juan Barea	46	49	0.92	-0.42	1.34	0.33	20	-16	36	16.1	17.6	-1.45	15.9	14.4	1.45
Derrick Williams	33	33	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.26	6	-2	8	18.1	16.1	2.05	15.7	14.9	0.75
Greg Stiemsma	25	25	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.07	11	-7	18	16.9	16.8	0.07	15.5	15.1	0.40
Andrei Kirilenko	61	62	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.33	-1	5	-6	16.5	17.6	-1.18	15.1	15.4	-0.28
Luke Ridnour	69	68	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.45	-6	10	-16	17.8	13.3	4.49	15.0	15.7	-0.74
Alexey Shved	64	67	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.02	-7	11	-18	16.0	18.9	-2.85	14.5	17.0	-2.52
Nikola Pekovic	52	53	-0.25	0.75	-1.01	0.13	-13	17	-30	18.0	15.1	2.90	14.9	15.6	-0.63
Kevin Love	45	46	-0.36	0.86	-1.23	-0.01	-12	16	-28	15.6	18.1	-2.54	15.5	14.9	0.63

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kosta Koufos	49	48	0.48	-0.98	1.46	-0.08	19	-23	42	15.2	15.1	0.08	17.9	15.6	2.36
Evan Fournier	15	13	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.04	-2	-2	0	16.7	14.9	1.77	15.5	17.1	-1.60
Anthony Randolph	8	9	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.00	-3	-1	-2	13.9	15.3	-1.44	17.1	16.8	0.31
Andre Miller	65	65	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.43	11	-15	26	15.2	15.1	0.10	17.6	14.8	2.79
Timofey Mozgov	27	26	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.08	-1	-3	2	15.4	15.1	0.31	15.1	17.6	-2.48
Andre Iguodala	67	67	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.41	6	-10	16	14.9	16.1	-1.22	16.9	16.6	0.32
Kenneth Faried	45	45	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.42	4	-8	12	15.4	15.0	0.33	17.7	15.9	1.82
Danilo Gallinari	53	53	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.26	-2	-2	0	15.0	15.4	-0.45	16.5	17.4	-0.89
JaVale McGee	24	23	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	0.04	-15	11	-26	15.3	15.1	0.20	15.9	17.2	-1.24
Corey Brewer	55	54	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.27	-12	8	-20	15.4	14.9	0.49	16.7	17.0	-0.32
Ty Lawson	47	42	-0.77	0.27	-1.05	-0.04	-25	21	-46	14.9	15.5	-0.52	15.9	17.7	-1.75

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.46,0.52,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.69,0.62,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.36,0.48,0.42,0.46,0.51,0.42,0.43,0.54,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.68,0.71,0.81,0.76,0.67,0.68,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.52,0.73,0.64,0.59,0.4,0.31,0.45,0.16,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 88, SEA 81	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.61,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.36,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.68,0.71,0.67,0.77,0.78,0.72,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.72,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.25,0.17,0.15,0.09,0	92.5%
PHX 116, BOS 111	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.4,0.41,0.43,0.53,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.44,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.37,0.46,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.65,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.54,0.57,0.52,0.57,0.63,0.7,0.76,0.47,0.44,0.37,0.24,0.08,0	91.3%
BKN 106, HOU 98	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.52,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.57,0.67,0.65,0.66,0.65,0.58,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.49,0.33,0.4,0.43,0.44,0.48,0.64,0.74,0.78,0.81,0.85,0.77,0.75,0.66,0.57,0.66,0.72,0.68,0.47,0.35,0.33,0.31,0.22,0.17,0.02,0	91.0%