NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	97		Excitement	8.7 [153]		MVP	Robin Lopez (NOH): +24.6%
Orlando Magic	94		Comeback	1.7 [434]		LVP	Arron Afflalo (ORL): -28.6%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Robin Lopez	0.25	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.24	0.03	0.03	10	91%	0.33	1	-0.09	12	92%	0.08
Ryan Anderson	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.01	0.09	-0.00	11	54%	0.15	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.05
Dominic McGuire	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.04	0.00	3	100%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Greivis Vasquez	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.11,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.06,-0.12,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.03	-0.00	21	61%	0.17	4	-0.15	2	100%	0.05
Roger Mason Jr.	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	1	0%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Xavier Henry	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Roberts	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	5	20%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lance Thomas	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Davis	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.01	-0.08	0.01	14	43%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Austin Rivers	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.16,-0.16	-0.04	-0.11	0.00	7	29%	-0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh McRoberts	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.00	3	83%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Nicholson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.13,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	0.00	10	46%	0.03	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.11
Jameer Nelson	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.2,0.24,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.19,0.19,0.1,0.1,0.1,0,0	-0.00	0.10	-0.10	0.01	17	78%	0.24	6	-0.24	2	100%	0.02
Gustavo Ayon	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Harkless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Vucevic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.04,0.04,-0.15	-0.15	0.04	-0.18	0.00	17	49%	-0.15	0	0.00	5	60%	0.01
E'Twaun Moore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.21	-0.21	0.02	-0.23	0.00	9	56%	-0.02	1	-0.19	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.29	-0.29	-0.03	-0.24	0.02	14	50%	-0.19	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.2	1.7	27.0	15.4	24.5	2.3	36.5	128.5
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOH +40.4%

NOH +10.8%

ORL -33.2%

NOH +30.0%

NOH +2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	ORL	NBA	NOH	ORL	NBA
this game	16.8	16.9	15.4	112.8	110.6	104.1
season	16.3	15.5		103.9	100.3
opponent	15.3	15.6		107.7	108.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	16.9	19.0	14.9	16.7	16.8
ORL	20.2	13.8	17.2	16.8	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Austin Rivers	48	49	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.18	16	-13	29	16.6	17.1	-0.41	17.5	16.0	1.49
Greivis Vasquez	73	74	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.38	4	-1	5	16.8	17.0	-0.21	17.0	16.2	0.78
Anthony Davis	61	59	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.29	7	-4	11	16.8	16.8	0.04	16.8	16.9	-0.04
Robin Lopez	59	59	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.30	5	-2	7	17.0	16.5	0.50	16.7	17.2	-0.43
Lance Thomas	40	40	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.23	3	0	3	16.5	17.1	-0.52	17.1	16.6	0.50
Dominic McGuire	48	46	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.40	-10	13	-23	16.8	16.8	-0.03	17.4	16.2	1.21
Ryan Anderson	52	52	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.23	-6	9	-15	16.6	17.1	-0.48	17.0	16.6	0.41
Brian Roberts	13	11	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	4	-5	17.0	16.8	0.21	16.2	17.0	-0.78
Xavier Henry	5	6	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.03	0	3	-3	21.6	16.5	5.07	16.8	16.9	-0.03
Roger Mason Jr.	31	29	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.05	-3	6	-9	16.7	16.9	-0.18	14.6	18.1	-3.50

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrew Nicholson	3	4	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.01	-2	-1	-1	25.7	16.5	9.13	10.2	17.1	-6.90
Josh McRoberts	22	24	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.04	-4	1	-5	17.8	16.5	1.23	16.4	17.0	-0.63
Gustavo Ayon	50	51	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.19	1	-4	5	15.9	18.3	-2.43	17.1	16.4	0.77
Jameer Nelson	67	67	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.35	3	-6	9	16.7	17.4	-0.74	17.2	15.5	1.74
JJ Redick	64	64	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.47	7	-10	17	16.5	18.1	-1.64	16.8	17.0	-0.17
E'Twaun Moore	54	55	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.36	2	-5	7	16.8	16.9	-0.12	16.4	17.5	-1.13
Maurice Harkless	37	40	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.02	-11	8	-19	16.1	17.5	-1.43	16.9	16.7	0.23
Arron Afflalo	70	68	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.41	0	-3	3	17.2	15.2	2.01	16.9	16.4	0.48
Nikola Vucevic	58	57	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.23	-11	8	-19	17.7	15.1	2.56	17.0	16.5	0.47

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.36,0.4,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.48,0.32,0.38,0.31,0.18,0.22,0.21,0.42,0.48,0.29,0.42,0.32,0.36,0.29,0.47,0.38,0.46,0.32,0.43,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 91, NYK 86	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.35,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.35,0.31,0.29,0.21,0.38,0.43,0.34,0.33,0.32,0.47,0.53,0.39,0.31,0.36,0.45,0.28,0	92.2%
ORL 90, IND 86	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.45,0.44,0.45,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.58,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.42,0.48,0.39,0.38,0.32,0.28,0.24,0.23,0.21,0.3,0.38,0.29,0.28,0.19,0.21,0.2,0.34,0.47,0.46,0.43,0.18,0	92.0%
DEN 83, VAN 82	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.5,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.52,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.37,0.26,0.32,0.26,0.34,0.47,0.49,0.23,0.21,0.3,0.47,0.38,0.22,0.43,0.42,0	91.5%