NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	93		Excitement	6.2 [547]		MVP	Nicolas Batum (POR): +29.4%
Portland Trail Blazers	101		Comeback	1.0 [448]		LVP	Danilo Gallinari (DEN): -14.2%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andre Miller	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05	-0.04	0.08	-0.02	14	40%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Kosta Koufos	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	-0.00	3	87%	0.06	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Anthony Randolph	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Timofey Mozgov	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Hamilton	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	7	40%	0.00	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Ty Lawson	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.01	15	42%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Corey Brewer	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0.01	10	50%	0.02	1	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
Evan Fournier	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
JaVale McGee	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	8	39%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Kenneth Faried	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	10	30%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Iguodala	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.05	-0.02	13	41%	-0.06	3	-0.06	6	50%	-0.03
Danilo Gallinari	-0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.10	-0.03	0.01	10	25%	-0.12	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.1,0.19,0.19,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.29	0.29	0.14	0.15	-0.01	15	67%	0.31	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.03
JJ Hickson	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	-0.00	0.04	-0.04	16	47%	0.10	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
Luke Babbitt	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.09	-0.01	0.01	10	64%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Meyers Leonard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.00	4	64%	0.07	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Sasha Pavlovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	2	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joel Freeland	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.05	19	50%	0.02	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Damian Lillard	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.09	0.02	-0.01	14	35%	-0.01	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.01
Ronnie Price	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	6	29%	-0.04	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
Victor Claver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	1	0%	-0.04	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	1.0	28.2	14.7	28.8	1.8	36.2	134.7
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +46.8%

POR +11.5%

DEN -2.0%

DEN -8.1%

POR +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	POR	NBA	DEN	POR	NBA
this game	13.2	15.3	15.4	91.2	101.0	104.1
season	14.4	15.8		108.4	104.3
opponent	15.3	15.4		107.6	104.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	17.1	12.2	12.6	11.4	13.2
POR	13.5	15.5	15.1	17.0	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jordan Hamilton	27	25	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.13	6	-14	20	13.4	13.2	0.17	16.1	15.0	1.11
Evan Fournier	19	20	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.04	0	-8	8	11.7	13.6	-1.92	15.5	15.2	0.32
Corey Brewer	62	63	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.17	4	-12	16	12.3	14.7	-2.35	15.5	14.9	0.63
Anthony Randolph	16	17	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.05	-1	-7	6	12.1	13.5	-1.33	15.0	15.3	-0.35
Timofey Mozgov	21	21	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.01	-5	-3	-2	15.3	12.7	2.57	14.0	15.6	-1.57
Kosta Koufos	43	43	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.03	-5	-3	-2	12.3	13.9	-1.63	15.0	15.5	-0.55
JaVale McGee	33	31	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.24	2	-10	12	13.3	13.2	0.04	16.0	15.0	1.03
Andre Miller	60	57	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.30	0	-8	8	13.3	13.1	0.17	14.9	15.8	-0.84
Kenneth Faried	36	35	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.08	-13	5	-18	16.1	11.7	4.47	14.5	15.7	-1.19
Andre Iguodala	60	58	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.15	-9	1	-10	12.9	13.8	-0.88	14.6	16.2	-1.55
Danilo Gallinari	56	55	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.16	-9	1	-10	13.4	13.1	0.25	15.7	14.7	1.01
Ty Lawson	77	75	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.16	-10	2	-12	13.3	13.0	0.27	15.9	13.6	2.25

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nicolas Batum	83	84	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.19	11	-3	14	15.6	13.8	1.77	13.4	12.7	0.70
Damian Lillard	74	74	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.15	9	-1	10	15.2	15.5	-0.28	13.4	12.9	0.44
Wesley Matthews	80	81	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.21	6	2	4	15.2	15.8	-0.64	13.5	12.3	1.15
JJ Hickson	72	73	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.31	2	6	-4	15.8	14.0	1.84	12.4	15.3	-2.93
Joel Freeland	31	31	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.09	15	-7	22	14.5	15.7	-1.22	14.7	12.6	2.15
Luke Babbitt	52	53	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.30	-5	13	-18	16.2	14.3	1.88	13.2	13.2	0.00
Meyers Leonard	28	29	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.00	4	4	0	14.0	15.8	-1.84	15.3	12.4	2.93
Ronnie Price	27	30	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.00	3	5	-2	14.9	15.4	-0.50	12.4	13.6	-1.20
Sasha Pavlovic	32	32	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.15	-3	11	-14	15.5	15.2	0.26	11.8	13.9	-2.04
Will Barton	6	7	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.02	1	7	-6	18.0	15.1	2.88	11.9	13.3	-1.49
Victor Claver	15	16	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.08	-3	11	-14	12.5	15.8	-3.32	12.9	13.3	-0.36

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.64,0.68,0.69,0.7,0.76,0.7,0.72,0.81,0.76,0.85,0.81,0.78,0.82,0.77,0.66,0.71,0.79,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.88,0.85,0.88,0.84,0.87,0.88,0.79,0.85,0.77,0.79,0.81,0.78,0.7,0.86,0.91,0.79,0.71,0.83,0.75,0.89,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 87, SAS 97	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.56,0.62,0.64,0.63,0.65,0.73,0.73,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.76,0.71,0.74,0.73,0.69,0.74,0.77,0.78,0.82,0.81,0.84,0.82,0.81,0.86,0.82,0.89,0.86,0.83,0.8,0.83,0.78,0.87,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.83,0.8,0.78,0.61,0.85,0.98,1,1	94.0%
SAS 87, MEM 95	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.62,0.65,0.63,0.63,0.67,0.67,0.66,0.7,0.74,0.74,0.73,0.79,0.8,0.82,0.85,0.83,0.79,0.81,0.81,0.86,0.88,0.88,0.87,0.85,0.81,0.91,0.9,0.84,0.85,0.84,0.85,0.9,0.87,0.82,0.86,0.85,0.83,0.76,0.83,0.89,0.98,0.99,1,1	93.8%
PHI 92, PHX 100	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.6,0.57,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.66,0.72,0.76,0.78,0.8,0.81,0.78,0.82,0.77,0.78,0.7,0.79,0.78,0.8,0.82,0.75,0.7,0.77,0.69,0.75,0.7,0.79,0.82,0.83,0.72,0.82,0.84,0.75,0.85,0.78,0.74,0.79,0.93,0.79,0.76,0.78,0.8,0.85,0.91,1,1	93.8%