NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	101		Excitement	3.4 [1141]		MVP	Andrea Bargnani (TOR): +14.2%
Houston Rockets	117		Comeback	1.1 [1068]		LVP	Kyle Lowry (TOR): -9.1%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrea Bargnani	0.14	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.11	0.01	-0.02	12	81%	0.18	3	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Ed Davis	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	0.01	0.03	6	86%	0.05	2	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Amir Johnson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	5	36%	0.02	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Terrence Ross	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	-0.01	0.03	17	56%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gray	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.08	-0.01	0.08	9	67%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Lucas III	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	5	20%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dominic McGuire	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	0.02	10	52%	-0.01	2	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Linas Kleiza	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	0.00	0.01	10	52%	0.03	4	-0.08	3	67%	-0.00
Kyle Lowry	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	10	33%	-0.04	3	-0.05	1	100%	-0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marcus Morris	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.11	0.00	-0.01	6	85%	0.12	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Patrick Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.13	0.01	0.07	14	63%	0.07	0	0.00	7	86%	-0.01
Omer Asik	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.01	-0.02	9	65%	0.08	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Jeremy Lin	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	0.00	0.02	9	80%	0.07	3	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
James Harden	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	19	59%	0.09	4	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Chandler Parsons	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	13	64%	0.06	4	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Toney Douglas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	4	37%	0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Daequan Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	0.00	0.03	4	62%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donatas Motiejunas	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terrence Jones	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	5	36%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.5	24.7	15.0	27.3	1.0	27.3	122.1
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +25.9%

HOU +2.6%

HOU +6.1%

HOU +15.3%

HOU +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	HOU	NBA	TOR	HOU	NBA
this game	15.6	14.5	15.4	105.2	123.2	104.1
season	16.1	14.2		104.4	107.9
opponent	15.4	15.3		105.0	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	16.6	15.2	14.8	16.0	15.6
HOU	14.0	16.1	12.8	15.3	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Amir Johnson	23	22	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.22	8	-24	32	16.1	15.5	0.58	16.0	14.0	2.00
Linas Kleiza	9	10	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.01	1	-17	18	16.4	15.6	0.88	19.0	14.0	5.02
Aaron Gray	1	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-17	18	33.0	15.5	17.54	7.0	14.7	-7.67
John Lucas III	28	27	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.33	11	-27	38	15.4	15.8	-0.41	15.2	14.2	1.00
Ed Davis	39	39	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.12	0	-16	16	16.7	14.9	1.81	14.8	14.3	0.53
Jose Calderon	48	47	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.08	-4	-12	8	16.0	15.2	0.79	14.9	14.1	0.81
Dominic McGuire	22	21	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.10	-11	-5	-6	16.3	15.4	0.87	13.7	14.7	-1.08
Terrence Ross	69	70	-0.28	-0.21	-0.07	0.07	-12	-4	-8	15.7	15.6	0.07	14.7	13.8	0.90
DeMar DeRozan	56	55	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	0.08	-16	0	-16	15.4	15.9	-0.48	13.3	16.1	-2.80
Kyle Lowry	56	55	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.09	-17	1	-18	15.2	16.2	-0.99	14.2	14.9	-0.77
Andrea Bargnani	64	63	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	0.27	-24	8	-32	14.8	17.3	-2.45	14.1	15.4	-1.31
Jonas Valanciunas	65	64	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	0.03	-17	1	-18	15.4	16.2	-0.81	14.5	14.6	-0.16

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Omer Asik	73	73	0.52	-0.02	0.54	-0.03	19	-3	22	14.5	14.5	0.07	15.5	16.0	-0.41
Jeremy Lin	77	79	0.49	0.01	0.49	-0.24	25	-9	34	13.9	16.9	-2.94	15.7	15.2	0.50
Chandler Parsons	82	83	0.48	0.02	0.46	-0.28	26	-10	36	14.5	14.8	-0.31	15.9	13.8	2.08
Patrick Patterson	64	65	0.47	0.03	0.45	-0.26	25	-9	34	13.8	16.0	-2.17	15.4	16.1	-0.67
James Harden	88	89	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.04	13	3	10	14.5	14.3	0.24	15.2	20.7	-5.47
Daequan Cook	18	19	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.28	-6	22	-28	15.4	14.3	1.16	15.4	15.7	-0.35
Marcus Morris	29	30	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.26	-8	24	-32	16.6	13.6	3.00	15.5	15.7	-0.16
Toney Douglas	18	17	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.27	-9	25	-34	16.9	13.9	2.94	15.2	15.7	-0.50
Donatas Motiejunas	2	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	17	-18	7.0	14.7	-7.67	33.0	15.5	17.54
Terrence Jones	2	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	17	-18	7.0	14.7	-7.67	33.0	15.5	17.54
Greg Smith	22	23	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.07	-3	19	-22	14.5	14.5	-0.07	16.0	15.5	0.41

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.64,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.67,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.67,0.78,0.87,0.86,0.9,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 93, SEA 105	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.68,0.75,0.74,0.72,0.72,0.7,0.8,0.86,0.86,0.85,0.91,0.95,0.92,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,0.97,0.94,0.99,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,0.98,1,1	97.0%
HOU 88, POR 111	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.48,0.51,0.61,0.6,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.62,0.61,0.66,0.75,0.71,0.76,0.7,0.75,0.84,0.87,0.88,0.89,0.91,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.7%
LAC 91, MEM 106	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.56,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.74,0.73,0.73,0.78,0.81,0.84,0.89,0.9,0.9,0.89,0.94,0.94,0.93,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.6%