NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	97		Excitement	9.1 [117]		MVP	JaVale McGee (DEN): +27.6%
Memphis Grizzlies	92		Comeback	5.2 [154]		LVP	Andre Miller (DEN): -29.5%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
JaVale McGee	0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.28	0.06	0.21	-0.00	12	56%	0.28	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.07
Danilo Gallinari	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.24	0.14	0.12	0.02	15	63%	0.24	0	0.00	11	91%	0.02
Corey Brewer	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.06	0.00	7	50%	0.08	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.03
Kenneth Faried	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.04	0.00	10	54%	0.08	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.01
Timofey Mozgov	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kosta Koufos	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.01	-0.04	0.01	6	67%	0.03	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Hamilton	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Andre Iguodala	-0.24	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.15,-0.15,-0.24,-0.24	-0.08	-0.17	-0.01	8	39%	-0.08	3	-0.17	2	50%	-0.00
Ty Lawson	-0.25	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.29,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.16	-0.10	-0.02	14	32%	-0.10	5	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	-0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.17,-0.17,-0.3	-0.07	-0.22	0.00	6	43%	-0.15	3	-0.14	2	100%	0.01

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.29,0.21,0.21,0.01	0.01	0.07	-0.06	0.00	13	71%	0.35	4	-0.34	5	80%	0.03
Marreese Speights	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	7	57%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jerryd Bayless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0	0.00	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	8	50%	0.04	2	-0.04	2	0%	-0.07
Quincy Pondexter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	7	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Allen	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.08,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.06	0.03	9	36%	0.00	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.06
Mike Conley	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	10	55%	0.06	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Marc Gasol	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,-0.03	-0.03	0.06	-0.08	0.01	7	80%	0.16	3	-0.19	6	100%	0.04
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Zach Randolph	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.03	0.01	15	40%	-0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.7	2.3	25.7	16.4	22.3	1.7	39.3	132.5
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM -9.7%

MEM -5.2%

DEN +48.3%

DEN +16.1%

DEN +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MEM	NBA	DEN	MEM	NBA
this game	15.9	16.1	15.4	109.0	101.1	104.1
season	14.4	16.5		108.4	102.9
opponent	15.5	15.4		99.1	104.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.8	14.5	18.6	16.0	15.9
MEM	18.6	15.5	16.6	14.0	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
JaVale McGee	37	37	0.79	-0.29	1.07	0.41	13	-8	21	14.0	17.2	-3.17	14.4	17.3	-2.94
Andre Miller	59	59	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.10	14	-9	23	14.7	18.3	-3.61	15.3	17.6	-2.27
Ty Lawson	62	63	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.23	4	1	3	15.8	16.0	-0.12	16.9	14.5	2.39
Jordan Hamilton	25	25	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.14	3	2	1	15.8	15.9	-0.16	14.2	16.9	-2.70
Kenneth Faried	52	55	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.34	-4	9	-13	16.8	14.5	2.29	16.2	16.0	0.25
Andre Iguodala	62	64	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.23	-1	6	-7	15.8	16.0	-0.12	16.8	14.6	2.23
Danilo Gallinari	64	64	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.32	-5	10	-15	16.6	14.0	2.55	16.7	14.6	2.12
Kosta Koufos	42	44	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.05	2	3	-1	17.0	14.9	2.08	18.7	13.7	5.00
Timofey Mozgov	4	4	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	-0.00	0	5	-5	18.2	15.8	2.49	17.2	16.1	1.18
Corey Brewer	38	40	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	-0.05	-1	6	-7	15.8	15.9	-0.15	13.8	17.9	-4.10

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Allen	52	48	0.48	-0.98	1.46	0.22	9	-14	23	17.2	14.6	2.59	16.0	15.7	0.31
Wayne Ellington	20	20	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.12	-3	-2	-1	12.8	17.1	-4.26	13.4	16.6	-3.13
Marc Gasol	68	65	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.32	2	-7	9	16.5	15.0	1.56	16.4	14.6	1.77
Marreese Speights	28	29	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.13	-5	0	-5	12.9	17.6	-4.66	15.7	15.9	-0.23
Rudy Gay	59	59	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.28	0	-5	5	17.7	13.2	4.52	16.5	14.6	1.88
Mike Conley	64	62	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.21	-7	2	-9	17.2	13.6	3.65	16.2	15.2	0.94
Quincy Pondexter	51	51	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.04	-13	8	-21	15.0	17.5	-2.46	15.4	16.6	-1.23
Zach Randolph	72	71	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.34	-5	0	-5	17.1	12.4	4.68	15.9	15.7	0.19
Jerryd Bayless	41	40	-0.64	0.14	-0.77	-0.55	-3	-2	-1	13.5	18.2	-4.70	15.5	16.2	-0.73

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.53,0.52,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.54,0.61,0.54,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.39,0.52,0.61,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.72,0.54,0.52,0.29,0.25,0.23,0.36,0.59,0.6,0.55,0.79,0.84,0.72,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 98, IND 96	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.41,0.49,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.55,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.59,0.7,0.68,0.5,0.38,0.25,0.27,0.37,0.31,0.47,0.53,0.62,0.72,0.57,0.59,0	90.6%
ORL 93, MIL 90	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.39,0.47,0.51,0.43,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.56,0.64,0.54,0.58,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.48,0.47,0.62,0.59,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.68,0.62,0.48,0.29,0.28,0.47,0.64,0.65,0.83,0.75,0.85,0.85,0.58,0	90.1%
PHX 124, DAL 123	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.41,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.61,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.55,0.55,0.69,0.73,0.78,0.68,0.58,0.52,0.57,0.43,0.47,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.39,0.64,0.91,0.87,0	89.2%