NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New York Knicks	99		Excitement	6.2 [549]		MVP	J.R. Smith (NYK): +14.7%
Orlando Magic	89		Comeback	1.9 [860]		LVP	Arron Afflalo (ORL): -30.2%

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
J.R. Smith	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.12	0.05	0.02	14	70%	0.18	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Jason Kidd	0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.01	0.07	-0.00	4	62%	0.11	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Pablo Prigioni	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	3	83%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.00	-0.03	22	53%	0.09	3	-0.06	3	67%	-0.01
Tyson Chandler	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.07	0.01	0.05	6	75%	0.06	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Steve Novak	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	2	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raymond Felton	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.02	0.02	-0.03	23	46%	0.11	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Camby	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronnie Brewer	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	3	37%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Rasheed Wallace	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	7	29%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.01	13	60%	0.16	4	-0.10	4	75%	-0.00
E'Twaun Moore	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.00	0.00	-0.05	14	43%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh McRoberts	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Andrew Nicholson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.05,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.02	0.03	7	61%	0.06	1	-0.05	4	75%	0.02
Glen Davis	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.06	-0.03	0.02	5	100%	0.09	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Harkless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	-0.02	0.00	7	62%	0.06	1	-0.05	2	0%	-0.04
Ish Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gustavo Ayon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Vucevic	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	10	60%	0.03	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.25,-0.25,-0.29,-0.29,-0.28,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3	-0.30	-0.18	-0.12	0.00	14	39%	-0.11	7	-0.19	5	60%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	8.6	28.3	16.6	24.2	2.3	28.3	131.7
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NYK +28.9%

ORL -4.4%

ORL -10.4%

NYK +34.7%

NYK +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NYK	ORL	NBA	NYK	ORL	NBA
this game	15.2	16.1	15.4	107.6	96.7	104.1
season	16.2	15.5		107.9	100.3
opponent	15.3	15.5		107.7	103.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NYK	14.8	15.1	17.4	13.8	15.2
ORL	16.5	15.5	16.9	15.6	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyson Chandler	62	62	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.19	19	-9	28	15.3	14.9	0.44	17.0	14.2	2.88
Jason Kidd	61	61	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.24	6	4	2	15.4	14.7	0.68	16.1	16.2	-0.08
Steve Novak	39	39	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.29	4	6	-2	14.6	15.6	-0.96	16.1	16.2	-0.10
J.R. Smith	62	62	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.13	9	1	8	14.8	16.1	-1.34	15.8	16.8	-1.03
Carmelo Anthony	82	83	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.11	7	3	4	15.2	15.1	0.11	15.6	20.4	-4.81
Raymond Felton	73	73	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.02	4	6	-2	15.4	14.3	1.11	15.4	19.0	-3.64
Rasheed Wallace	31	28	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.10	0	10	-10	14.4	15.6	-1.22	15.2	16.5	-1.23
Pablo Prigioni	11	13	0.03	0.47	-0.45	-0.00	1	9	-8	16.2	15.1	1.12	19.1	15.6	3.46
Ronnie Brewer	34	33	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.02	0	10	-10	15.1	15.2	-0.08	16.2	16.0	0.21
Marcus Camby	5	6	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	-0.02	0	10	-10	20.0	14.9	5.08	23.0	15.6	7.37

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrew Nicholson	22	25	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.09	1	-11	12	12.2	17.3	-5.16	13.2	16.0	-2.80
Gustavo Ayon	5	4	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.00	-3	-7	4	16.6	16.1	0.52	14.0	15.2	-1.25
Ish Smith	19	18	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.01	-5	-5	0	14.7	16.5	-1.73	14.2	15.4	-1.21
Maurice Harkless	40	41	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.10	-2	-8	6	14.1	17.7	-3.55	13.7	16.4	-2.68
Glen Davis	54	53	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.07	-4	-6	2	17.8	13.7	4.13	16.9	12.9	3.94
JJ Redick	71	73	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.09	-5	-5	0	16.5	14.9	1.62	15.8	13.0	2.77
Josh McRoberts	37	36	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.08	-6	-4	-2	13.7	17.7	-4.02	13.2	16.5	-3.29
E'Twaun Moore	73	74	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.21	-5	-5	0	16.5	14.7	1.73	15.4	14.2	1.21
Nikola Vucevic	66	66	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.17	-8	-2	-6	17.3	13.0	4.33	15.8	13.7	2.10
Arron Afflalo	73	70	-0.60	0.10	-0.71	-0.22	-13	3	-16	16.8	13.3	3.59	15.5	14.3	1.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.4,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.59,0.58,0.59,0.6,0.64,0.52,0.58,0.48,0.48,0.59,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.46,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.42,0.21,0.25,0.07,0.07,0.03,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 106, VAN 94	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.5,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.65,0.69,0.66,0.64,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.52,0.6,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.47,0.32,0.21,0.12,0.09,0.05,0.11,0.1,0,0	92.9%
HOU 105, CLE 93	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.53,0.6,0.61,0.55,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.62,0.55,0.52,0.66,0.56,0.52,0.54,0.43,0.47,0.33,0.37,0.17,0.09,0.1,0.04,0,0,0,0	92.5%
MIA 99, DET 93	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.4,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.42,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.51,0.42,0.46,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.48,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.65,0.56,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.52,0.47,0.42,0.27,0.26,0.4,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.02,0.04,0	92.5%