NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	98		Excitement	6.5 [412]		MVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): +27.9%
Boston Celtics	102		Comeback	1.4 [671]		LVP	Sasha Pavlovic (BOS): -11.2%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Glen Davis	0.13	0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13	0.11	0.04	0.02	16	71%	0.20	3	-0.07	6	50%	-0.03
Von Wafer	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	6	46%	0.00	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Jameer Nelson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01	0.03	-0.04	-0.00	19	50%	0.03	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Daniel Orton	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.04
Ryan Anderson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.02	0.00	11	46%	0.03	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.05
Chris Duhon	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jason Richardson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	12	42%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.05
JJ Redick	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,-0.02,-0.01,-0.05	0.02	-0.08	-0.01	6	62%	0.05	3	-0.10	9	89%	0.04
Quentin Richardson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	5	30%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Earl Clark	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.25,0.17,0.28	0.28	0.15	0.15	0.02	14	72%	0.38	3	-0.10	12	92%	0.04
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.09	0.03	0.01	11	70%	0.18	2	-0.06	8	87%	0.04
Avery Bradley	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11	0.11	0.09	0.02	-0.00	14	74%	0.20	4	-0.09	3	67%	-0.01
E'Twaun Moore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.01	3	83%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marquis Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Stiemsma	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	15	44%	0.04	3	-0.08	4	75%	0.00
Sasha Pavlovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	0.00	3	0%	-0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.7	32.0	18.8	29.2	3.5	40.2	150.6
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +46.1%

BOS +11.2%

ORL -17.5%

BOS +2.8%

BOS +7.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	BOS	NBA	ORL	BOS	NBA
this game	16.0	15.7	15.6	107.7	112.1	102.8
season	16.2	15.5		102.8	99.4
opponent	16.2	15.8		97.1	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	16.5	16.5	16.7	14.1	16.0
BOS	16.2	15.5	13.3	17.8	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jameer Nelson	70	69	0.10	-0.60	0.71	-0.34	15	-19	34	15.6	17.2	-1.65	15.7	15.8	-0.12
Glen Davis	64	66	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.35	11	-15	26	15.9	16.0	-0.10	16.7	13.0	3.70
Von Wafer	20	18	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.05	-2	-2	0	17.5	15.5	2.03	18.9	14.9	4.07
Jason Richardson	50	50	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.06	-9	5	-14	16.2	15.7	0.56	14.4	17.2	-2.76
Ryan Anderson	76	77	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.43	5	-9	14	15.4	18.7	-3.23	15.2	18.6	-3.42
Quentin Richardson	41	41	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.44	5	-9	14	15.7	16.2	-0.56	17.2	14.4	2.76
Daniel Orton	22	21	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.01	-11	7	-18	16.5	15.8	0.70	15.0	15.9	-0.95
Earl Clark	20	18	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.03	-13	9	-22	17.5	15.5	1.96	15.1	15.8	-0.78
JJ Redick	71	73	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.33	-2	-2	0	15.5	17.5	-2.03	14.9	18.9	-4.07
Chris Duhon	21	22	-0.60	0.10	-0.71	-0.05	-19	15	-34	17.2	15.6	1.65	15.8	15.7	0.12

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keyon Dooling	46	47	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.27	10	-6	16	15.4	16.0	-0.54	14.4	17.7	-3.28
Greg Stiemsma	44	46	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.09	16	-12	28	15.6	15.8	-0.18	17.2	14.7	2.48
Paul Pierce	69	69	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.21	7	-3	10	15.0	17.7	-2.64	15.3	18.2	-2.92
E'Twaun Moore	22	24	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.15	9	-5	14	17.0	15.2	1.80	16.7	15.7	0.95
Brandon Bass	74	73	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.30	2	2	0	14.9	19.2	-4.37	15.7	17.1	-1.43
Avery Bradley	72	70	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.21	-1	5	-6	15.0	18.1	-3.06	15.4	17.9	-2.46
Marquis Daniels	22	22	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.17	-3	7	-10	17.7	15.0	2.64	18.2	15.3	2.92
Kevin Garnett	63	62	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.39	-12	16	-28	16.9	12.9	3.98	15.6	16.7	-1.01
Sasha Pavlovic	43	42	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	0.13	-8	12	-20	16.0	15.4	0.69	17.9	14.3	3.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.59,0.57,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.64,0.72,0.7,0.69,0.75,0.71,0.73,0.66,0.68,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.69,0.73,0.67,0.64,0.68,0.55,0.56,0.48,0.52,0.64,0.85,0.89,0.93,0.92,0.93,0.97,0.94,0.9,0.86,0.72,0.85,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 91, IND 97	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.69,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.66,0.61,0.55,0.52,0.62,0.45,0.56,0.52,0.56,0.72,0.74,0.82,0.92,0.95,0.93,0.94,0.88,0.78,0.85,0.79,0.9,1,1	93.8%
DAL 92, NOH 97	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.67,0.63,0.67,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.71,0.71,0.71,0.7,0.73,0.66,0.54,0.49,0.54,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.56,0.6,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.86,0.93,0.88,0.9,0.94,0.83,0.75,0.84,0.96,0.96,1	93.6%
GSW 92, UTA 101	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.71,0.73,0.71,0.71,0.65,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.62,0.63,0.51,0.58,0.73,0.71,0.65,0.65,0.63,0.74,0.75,0.81,0.82,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.94,0.98,0.99,0.9,0.93,0.85,0.96,1	92.4%