NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	92		Excitement	7.2 [302]		MVP	Eric Gordon (NOH): +17.1%
New Orleans Hornets	94		Comeback	1.3 [406]		LVP	Corey Brewer (DEN): -20.7%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Harrington	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,-0.02,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.18,-0.18,0.11	-0.04	0.16	0.00	15	47%	0.21	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Kosta Koufos	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	4	78%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Andre Miller	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.00	0.00	4	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ty Lawson	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.04	0.07	-0.05	-0.01	15	59%	0.15	2	-0.11	7	86%	0.01
Kenneth Faried	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	8	57%	0.06	1	-0.05	7	43%	-0.06
Jordan Hamilton	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	8	44%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JaVale McGee	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	8	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	14	43%	-0.01	1	-0.03	7	86%	0.03
Corey Brewer	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.21	-0.13	-0.08	-0.00	7	0%	-0.14	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eric Gordon	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,0.17	0.17	-0.06	0.22	-0.02	11	48%	0.31	4	-0.14	9	78%	0.05
Greivis Vasquez	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.05	0.00	5	92%	0.15	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Carl Landry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.03	0.03	-0.06	8	50%	0.10	2	-0.04	8	50%	-0.01
Xavier Henry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.00	7	57%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gustavo Ayon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Smith	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	6	83%	0.10	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Chris Kaman	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.01	11	56%	0.06	2	-0.06	3	67%	-0.01
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	7	36%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al-Farouq Aminu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.05	-0.01	10	60%	0.09	3	-0.11	5	80%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.5	32.3	16.6	26.4	2.4	44.4	147.9
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOH +27.2%

NOH +27.9%

NOH +19.5%

DEN -23.6%

DEN -1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	NOH	NBA	DEN	NOH	NBA
this game	16.8	16.6	15.6	107.0	109.3	102.8
season	14.5	16.3		107.5	99.2
opponent	15.7	15.8		103.4	104.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	17.5	16.8	18.0	15.0	16.8
NOH	13.0	21.1	15.5	17.7	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jordan Hamilton	26	26	0.40	-0.90	1.30	-0.04	15	-17	32	16.8	16.9	-0.06	20.2	15.1	5.15
Andre Miller	34	35	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.23	6	-8	14	17.1	16.7	0.44	18.5	15.4	3.11
Kosta Koufos	40	40	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.24	5	-7	12	15.9	17.7	-1.77	16.1	17.1	-0.92
JaVale McGee	24	24	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.12	-12	10	-22	19.6	15.8	3.85	15.8	17.0	-1.12
Al Harrington	60	61	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.56	10	-12	22	15.6	19.7	-4.13	17.2	15.3	1.92
Kenneth Faried	47	47	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.26	-7	5	-12	18.0	15.4	2.63	16.7	16.5	0.23
Arron Afflalo	73	72	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.33	-5	3	-8	16.7	17.8	-1.08	16.7	16.6	0.08
Ty Lawson	77	77	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.44	-4	2	-6	16.7	18.1	-1.41	16.0	22.2	-6.24
Corey Brewer	49	48	-0.76	0.26	-1.02	-0.23	-18	16	-34	17.0	16.7	0.26	14.4	19.5	-5.12

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Smith	46	45	0.76	-0.26	1.01	0.40	12	-10	22	14.9	18.6	-3.76	18.1	15.4	2.69
Trevor Ariza	58	58	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.27	13	-11	24	15.5	18.9	-3.39	16.9	16.7	0.20
Eric Gordon	60	61	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.30	6	-4	10	16.3	17.5	-1.23	17.1	16.3	0.80
Chris Kaman	60	61	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.28	3	-1	4	15.9	18.4	-2.50	17.4	15.5	1.93
Greivis Vasquez	67	67	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.00	7	-5	12	16.0	18.9	-2.96	17.3	15.3	1.97
Marco Belinelli	33	34	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.45	-9	11	-20	17.2	16.3	0.88	15.8	17.6	-1.79
Gustavo Ayon	19	18	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.09	3	-1	4	18.5	16.1	2.42	16.3	17.0	-0.72
Xavier Henry	27	27	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.14	-2	4	-6	18.8	15.6	3.17	16.7	16.9	-0.21
Al-Farouq Aminu	13	12	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.10	-9	11	-20	20.8	15.9	4.87	15.5	17.1	-1.57
Carl Landry	47	47	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	0.17	-14	16	-30	18.6	14.3	4.22	15.3	18.7	-3.37

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.69,0.63,0.69,0.62,0.56,0.54,0.6,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.54,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.69,0.67,0.58,0.65,0.59,0.65,0.79,0.74,0.85,0.81,0.8,0.79,0.86,0.94,0.92,0.92,0.94,0.85,0.72,0.76,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
BKN 91, ATL 96	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.65,0.63,0.72,0.66,0.63,0.62,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.42,0.34,0.41,0.49,0.46,0.56,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.59,0.66,0.63,0.8,0.81,0.84,0.88,0.86,0.88,0.94,0.94,0.91,0.86,0.79,0.84,0.72,1	93.4%
TOR 111, NJN 113	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.6,0.6,0.55,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.56,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.64,0.62,0.71,0.72,0.77,0.8,0.79,0.78,0.7,0.75,0.83,0.97,0.96,0.91,0.93,0.9,0.63,0.77,0.91,1	93.1%
CHA 96, BKN 105	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.51,0.58,0.65,0.61,0.6,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.65,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.43,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.68,0.72,0.79,0.77,0.79,0.81,0.74,0.81,0.86,0.88,0.89,0.88,0.77,0.81,0.79,0.68,0.92,1	92.9%