NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	102		Excitement	7.1 [317]		MVP	Wesley Matthews (POR): +26.9%
Portland Trail Blazers	111		Comeback	1.8 [612]		LVP	Nene (DEN): -13.8%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ty Lawson	0.23	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.12	0.08	-0.03	16	69%	0.30	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.01
Arron Afflalo	0.16	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16	0.09	0.08	0.01	12	61%	0.16	0	0.00	7	100%	0.06
Chris Andersen	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Fernandez	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	8	39%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Corey Brewer	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.02	-0.00	13	41%	0.00	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
Timofey Mozgov	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Al Harrington	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	9	36%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Danilo Gallinari	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.05	-0.01	15	42%	-0.06	0	0.00	8	100%	0.06
Nene	-0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	12	38%	-0.06	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.31,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.14	0.11	-0.02	15	78%	0.37	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Jamal Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.15,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,0.12,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	-0.05	0.17	-0.04	16	54%	0.37	6	-0.20	9	100%	0.10
Raymond Felton	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.07	0.02	16	68%	0.18	4	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.02	0.01	3	87%	0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Gerald Wallace	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.03	-0.01	7	76%	0.14	3	-0.11	3	100%	0.02
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	6	40%	0.02	4	-0.09	3	100%	0.01
Marcus Camby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	2	50%	0.02	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.07	-0.02	14	43%	-0.01	2	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	1.7	33.1	14.7	26.1	1.7	31.2	134.6
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +77.0%

POR +2.0%

POR +20.6%

DEN -58.8%

POR +9.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	POR	NBA	DEN	POR	NBA
this game	12.9	14.6	15.6	97.1	105.7	102.8
season	14.5	15.7		107.5	104.1
opponent	15.4	15.8		104.7	104.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	12.7	10.8	16.5	12.5	12.9
POR	11.3	13.7	17.8	16.8	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Harrington	52	50	0.20	-0.70	0.90	0.05	5	-14	19	12.3	13.4	-1.13	13.8	15.3	-1.47
Rudy Fernandez	51	51	0.09	-0.59	0.68	-0.12	7	-16	23	12.3	13.4	-1.13	13.8	15.2	-1.38
Corey Brewer	2	2	0.07	-0.57	0.63	0.01	2	-11	13	2.0	13.1	-11.09	14.0	14.6	-0.56
Chris Andersen	18	16	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.02	-3	-6	3	12.4	13.0	-0.52	12.6	14.9	-2.27
Andre Miller	77	76	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.38	7	-16	23	12.7	13.4	-0.70	14.5	14.6	-0.05
Timofey Mozgov	22	23	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.02	-7	-2	-5	14.0	12.6	1.48	15.7	14.2	1.52
Ty Lawson	89	89	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.14	-10	1	-11	12.8	13.4	-0.59	14.5	14.7	-0.16
Arron Afflalo	64	67	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.06	-13	4	-17	13.6	11.8	1.80	15.4	13.0	2.43
Nene	76	76	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.24	-13	4	-17	13.0	12.5	0.50	14.7	14.2	0.43
Danilo Gallinari	74	75	-0.85	0.35	-1.20	-0.26	-20	11	-31	13.3	11.9	1.38	14.7	14.1	0.68

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcus Camby	55	54	0.74	-0.24	0.97	0.24	17	-8	25	14.8	14.2	0.60	14.5	11.2	3.34
Wesley Matthews	84	86	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.15	17	-8	25	14.5	14.6	-0.02	13.3	11.2	2.10
LaMarcus Aldridge	83	82	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.26	10	-1	11	15.0	12.9	2.14	13.3	11.3	2.07
Gerald Wallace	84	85	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.16	13	-4	17	14.3	15.7	-1.45	12.6	13.9	-1.33
Raymond Felton	75	72	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.05	6	3	3	14.7	14.3	0.40	12.9	12.9	-0.00
Jamal Crawford	68	67	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.33	-6	15	-21	15.0	13.8	1.19	12.3	14.0	-1.72
Kurt Thomas	29	31	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.06	-6	15	-21	14.1	14.7	-0.62	10.9	13.7	-2.85
Nicolas Batum	47	48	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	-0.07	-6	15	-21	13.4	15.4	-2.00	12.2	13.4	-1.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.54,0.59,0.69,0.68,0.67,0.69,0.65,0.71,0.75,0.75,0.7,0.69,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.59,0.58,0.67,0.61,0.5,0.46,0.4,0.52,0.48,0.61,0.74,0.71,0.69,0.66,0.71,0.75,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.65,0.66,0.81,0.85,0.91,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 91, NJN 93	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.73,0.73,0.7,0.64,0.62,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.73,0.74,0.66,0.61,0.67,0.6,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.7,0.71,0.8,0.66,0.69,0.71,0.72,0.66,0.74,0.66,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.65,0.66,0.69,0.72,0.9,0.96,1	93.3%
NOP 112, MIA 120	0.5,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.55,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.65,0.68,0.7,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.73,0.65,0.72,0.74,0.66,0.59,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.31,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.69,0.59,0.63,0.72,0.74,0.66,0.7,0.62,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.73,0.85,0.95,0.99,1,1	93.2%
LAL 86, POR 96	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.6,0.63,0.59,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.72,0.56,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.68,0.65,0.65,0.7,0.67,0.56,0.5,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.76,0.87,0.89,0.97,1,0.99,1	92.7%