NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	100		Excitement	2.0 [1288]		MVP	Dorell Wright (GSW): +14.6%
Golden State Warriors	138		Comeback	1.2 [1116]		LVP	Jerryd Bayless (TOR): -3.7%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Leandro Barbosa	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.14	0.00	0.09	11	79%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Alexis Ajinca	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.03	0.00	-0.06	7	50%	0.04	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.00	-0.05	11	54%	0.06	2	-0.02	4	50%	-0.01
DeMar DeRozan	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.06	0.00	0.03	12	73%	0.04	4	-0.01	2	100%	-0.00
Ed Davis	0.01	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	0.00	0.03	9	60%	0.03	3	-0.02	12	67%	-0.02
Jose Calderon	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sonny Weems	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.11	0.00	-0.10	9	22%	-0.02	2	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrea Bargnani	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	-0.00	-0.04	10	29%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Jerryd Bayless	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	9	45%	0.00	3	-0.04	2	50%	0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dorell Wright	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.23	0.02	0.10	11	87%	0.15	1	-0.00	8	87%	0.00
Monta Ellis	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.15	0.00	0.01	17	67%	0.14	1	-0.00	6	100%	0.01
Stephen Curry	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.11	0.00	-0.02	13	74%	0.14	3	-0.02	5	100%	0.01
David Lee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.18	0.00	0.11	9	95%	0.10	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Ekpe Udoh	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	0.00	0.02	7	71%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Thornton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.09	11	46%	0.03	3	0.00	4	50%	0.00
Vladimir Radmanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Adrien	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	4	20%	0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	0.00
Lou Amundson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.03	0.00	0.03	5	58%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Reggie Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.09	0.00	0.11	6	77%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.5	29.4	15.6	29.4	2.4	26.6	130.2
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +29.3%

GSW +8.8%

GSW +2.8%

GSW +8.4%

GSW +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	GSW	NBA	TOR	GSW	NBA
this game	15.4	13.1	15.5	99.0	136.6	105.7
season	15.1	14.8		104.7	106.6
opponent	15.2	15.5		109.0	111.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	15.7	15.6	15.4	15.0	15.4
GSW	12.5	13.8	11.3	15.0	13.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alexis Ajinca	51	49	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.04	-3	-35	32	15.4	15.4	0.01	13.6	12.7	0.90
Jose Calderon	28	27	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.01	-7	-31	24	16.5	15.0	1.44	14.1	12.7	1.39
Sonny Weems	44	44	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.04	-8	-30	22	15.7	15.2	0.45	13.4	12.9	0.53
Ed Davis	76	77	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.32	-18	-20	2	14.7	17.8	-3.10	13.8	10.9	2.85
Leandro Barbosa	52	52	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.11	-5	-33	28	14.7	16.2	-1.51	13.7	12.4	1.24
Jerryd Bayless	58	61	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.60	-31	-7	-24	15.2	15.7	-0.43	12.6	13.8	-1.26
DeMar DeRozan	59	60	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.74	-37	-1	-36	16.0	14.7	1.30	12.6	13.9	-1.29
James Johnson	80	77	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	0.81	-41	3	-44	15.5	15.3	0.18	12.1	16.2	-4.04
Andrea Bargnani	57	58	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	0.71	-40	2	-42	16.0	14.7	1.28	12.9	13.3	-0.45

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stephen Curry	77	77	0.50	-0.00	0.51	-0.76	43	-5	48	12.8	13.9	-1.03	15.6	14.9	0.72
Monta Ellis	89	90	0.50	0.00	0.50	-0.73	42	-4	46	12.7	15.9	-3.21	15.4	15.6	-0.24
David Lee	53	54	0.32	0.18	0.14	-0.68	34	4	30	11.6	14.7	-3.17	16.4	14.4	1.99
Dorell Wright	66	68	0.32	0.18	0.13	-0.68	34	4	30	11.9	15.3	-3.45	15.6	15.1	0.50
Ekpe Udoh	61	60	0.27	0.23	0.05	-0.55	28	10	18	12.7	13.7	-1.09	16.1	14.4	1.70
Reggie Williams	48	48	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.11	4	34	-30	13.8	12.4	1.42	14.6	16.1	-1.49
Al Thornton	42	42	0.18	0.32	-0.13	-0.23	14	24	-10	14.0	12.4	1.56	14.3	16.2	-1.91
Lou Amundson	48	47	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.07	4	34	-30	14.7	11.6	3.17	14.4	16.4	-1.99
Vladimir Radmanovic	6	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.18	-6	44	-50	19.2	12.7	6.46	16.6	15.4	1.24
Jeff Adrien	15	14	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.21	-7	45	-52	16.3	12.5	3.73	16.5	15.3	1.25

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.71,0.68,0.74,0.78,0.8,0.88,0.83,0.9,0.92,0.92,0.92,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 82, ORL 111	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.69,0.74,0.72,0.74,0.8,0.84,0.84,0.83,0.86,0.9,0.93,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.9%
TOR 89, WAS 117	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.63,0.69,0.69,0.68,0.7,0.76,0.8,0.85,0.88,0.82,0.86,0.88,0.88,0.9,0.91,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.7%
BOS 100, PHX 131	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.69,0.68,0.7,0.76,0.76,0.8,0.87,0.91,0.87,0.92,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.6%