NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	114		Excitement	7.5 [345]		MVP	Monta Ellis (GSW): +20.9%
Golden State Warriors	116		Comeback	2.1 [615]		LVP	Ty Lawson (DEN): -9.7%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.02	-0.00	21	59%	0.21	4	-0.13	7	71%	-0.00
Arron Afflalo	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.07	0.01	11	55%	0.11	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.08	0.06	0.02	-0.00	12	62%	0.11	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Gary Forbes	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nene	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.04	0.16	-0.10	0.02	7	89%	0.07	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.02
Anthony Carter	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Al Harrington	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.04	0.00	15	51%	0.02	2	-0.05	5	40%	-0.07
Chris Andersen	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	-0.06	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	7	53%	0.04	4	-0.10	3	100%	0.02
Ty Lawson	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.03	-0.06	0.01	7	57%	0.03	3	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Monta Ellis	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.21	0.21	0.08	0.14	0.02	30	59%	0.33	4	-0.13	3	33%	-0.02
Reggie Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.13	0.06	-0.00	10	90%	0.25	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.00	0.00	20	52%	0.07	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
David Lee	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.05	0.07	-0.05	15	48%	0.11	4	-0.04	3	67%	0.04
Andris Biedrins	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	4	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vladimir Radmanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	9	65%	0.08	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Brandan Wright	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ekpe Udoh	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Lin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.7	1.7	27.3	15.5	25.5	2.4	25.5	122.5
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +26.3%

DEN -0.7%

DEN -1.3%

GSW +22.8%

GSW +3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	GSW	NBA	DEN	GSW	NBA
this game	13.6	16.0	15.5	117.5	118.4	105.7
season	14.3	14.8		110.7	106.6
opponent	15.2	15.5		109.0	106.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.6	13.3	14.0	13.3	13.6
GSW	14.6	13.9	15.4	21.0	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Carter	25	26	0.07	-0.57	0.63	-0.11	6	-8	14	13.3	13.7	-0.37	16.0	15.9	0.09
Chris Andersen	31	32	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.15	7	-9	16	12.8	13.9	-1.06	17.4	15.3	2.13
Gary Forbes	10	10	0.04	-0.54	0.59	0.01	1	-3	4	13.2	13.6	-0.40	17.1	15.8	1.26
Kenyon Martin	49	50	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.08	-4	2	-6	13.4	13.7	-0.30	14.5	17.5	-2.96
Al Harrington	42	43	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.09	-5	3	-8	13.7	13.4	0.28	16.5	15.5	0.97
J.R. Smith	51	52	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.38	3	-5	8	13.7	13.4	0.36	17.0	14.8	2.15
Carmelo Anthony	66	67	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.36	0	-2	2	13.5	13.7	-0.18	15.4	17.3	-1.93
Nene	64	63	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.33	-6	4	-10	13.8	13.0	0.84	15.5	16.8	-1.25
Arron Afflalo	75	75	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.40	-4	2	-6	13.6	13.4	0.19	16.1	15.6	0.47
Ty Lawson	72	72	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.33	-8	6	-14	13.7	13.3	0.37	15.9	16.0	-0.09

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dorell Wright	87	87	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.43	5	-3	8	15.9	16.6	-0.75	13.8	11.1	2.74
David Lee	88	87	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.44	4	-2	6	15.9	16.2	-0.26	13.9	10.7	3.19
Reggie Williams	61	59	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.36	5	-3	8	15.4	16.9	-1.57	13.1	14.3	-1.25
Monta Ellis	84	83	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.50	-4	6	-10	16.8	11.2	5.55	13.5	14.0	-0.52
Stephen Curry	59	58	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.28	-2	4	-6	16.0	15.9	0.08	14.0	12.8	1.19
Andris Biedrins	50	49	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.08	5	-3	8	15.7	16.2	-0.47	14.2	12.9	1.35
Ekpe Udoh	27	27	0.14	0.36	-0.23	-0.01	5	-3	8	14.2	16.6	-2.46	13.0	13.8	-0.77
Vladimir Radmanovic	19	20	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.09	-4	6	-10	16.7	15.8	0.95	12.3	13.9	-1.52
Brandan Wright	5	5	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.03	-2	4	-6	20.0	15.8	4.25	11.4	13.7	-2.27
Jeremy Lin	10	10	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.00	-2	4	-6	16.2	15.9	0.26	10.7	13.9	-3.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.46,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.37,0.39,0.51,0.64,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.73,0.64,0.74,0.72,0.79,0.73,0.84,0.91,0.81,0.84,0.82,0.87,0.77,0.79,0.85,0.87,0.87,0.89,0.86,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 84, NYK 88	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.47,0.41,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.4,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.39,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.77,0.74,0.76,0.77,0.84,0.82,0.87,0.91,0.85,0.86,0.77,0.83,0.76,0.83,0.9,0.79,0.84,0.84,1	94.9%
NYK 87, SEA 95	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.54,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.67,0.71,0.84,0.8,0.84,0.85,0.89,0.9,0.87,0.78,0.75,0.76,0.85,0.83,0.92,0.88,0.98,0.99,1,1,1	93.1%
MIL 112, WAS 121	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.49,0.42,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.39,0.56,0.54,0.44,0.49,0.52,0.63,0.61,0.64,0.7,0.77,0.75,0.78,0.79,0.71,0.72,0.78,0.84,0.85,0.92,0.9,0.94,0.85,0.82,0.86,0.84,0.91,0.91,1	92.9%