NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Phoenix Suns	104		Excitement	1.3 [1045]		MVP	Channing Frye (PHX): +20.2%
Golden State Warriors	92		Comeback	1.1 [458]		LVP	Dorell Wright (GSW): -10.1%

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Channing Frye	0.20	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.13	0.04	-0.03	14	68%	0.20	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Pietrus	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.00	0.01	7	75%	0.09	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Grant Hill	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	-0.00	-0.01	12	56%	0.07	1	-0.01	8	87%	0.01
Hakim Warrick	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.01	4	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcin Gortat	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.01	8	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robin Lopez	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Jared Dudley	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	11	55%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Steve Nash	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	13	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Vince Carter	-0.01	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.06	-0.00	-0.05	12	36%	-0.01	1	-0.00	4	75%	0.00
Zabian Dowdell	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.07	0.00	-0.04	3	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
David Lee	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.01	14	53%	0.05	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Reggie Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.15	-0.01	0.10	10	79%	0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Andris Biedrins	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	0.01	17	45%	0.02	2	-0.02	13	77%	0.02
Brandan Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ekpe Udoh	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	5	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Stephen Curry	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.12	-0.00	-0.05	17	43%	-0.00	5	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
Vladimir Radmanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.02	5	20%	-0.06	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.10	0.00	0.01	13	30%	-0.08	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	2.5	27.7	15.7	25.9	2.8	27.3	126.8
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHX +51.2%

GSW -3.5%

GSW -7.5%

PHX +8.7%

PHX +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHX	GSW	NBA	PHX	GSW	NBA
this game	16.8	14.5	15.5	113.0	100.0	105.7
season	14.5	14.8		108.0	106.6
opponent	15.2	15.7		109.0	109.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHX	14.6	15.4	17.2	20.5	16.8
GSW	16.7	14.6	13.3	13.2	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Channing Frye	73	73	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.06	12	0	12	17.2	15.2	2.04	14.6	14.1	0.54
Steve Nash	70	69	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.06	12	0	12	17.5	14.8	2.64	14.2	15.2	-0.93
Vince Carter	59	58	0.39	0.11	0.29	-0.07	16	-4	20	18.0	14.8	3.23	14.4	14.7	-0.31
Grant Hill	63	63	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.00	13	-1	14	17.8	14.6	3.22	14.1	15.3	-1.22
Robin Lopez	29	29	0.28	0.22	0.07	-0.16	15	-3	18	15.7	17.3	-1.61	15.2	14.2	1.01
Jared Dudley	54	53	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.15	4	8	-4	17.4	16.0	1.36	13.9	15.3	-1.40
Marcin Gortat	40	41	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.28	-5	17	-22	15.2	18.0	-2.79	15.1	14.0	1.16
Zabian Dowdell	22	23	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.09	0	12	-12	14.8	17.5	-2.64	15.2	14.2	0.93
Hakim Warrick	13	13	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.02	2	10	-8	14.2	17.3	-3.11	15.2	14.4	0.88
Mickael Pietrus	37	38	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.31	-9	21	-30	15.1	18.0	-2.87	14.4	14.5	-0.10

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ekpe Udoh	30	31	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.36	13	-25	38	13.3	15.0	-1.70	16.0	17.3	-1.29
Brandan Wright	9	9	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.03	0	-12	12	13.4	14.6	-1.15	16.6	16.9	-0.30
Reggie Williams	57	56	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.21	1	-13	14	14.0	15.3	-1.30	17.4	15.9	1.54
Vladimir Radmanovic	44	46	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.17	-1	-11	10	14.2	14.7	-0.48	17.7	16.0	1.65
Andris Biedrins	34	32	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.16	-16	4	-20	14.4	14.5	-0.15	16.1	17.2	-1.17
Dorell Wright	57	57	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.04	-11	-1	-10	14.9	13.7	1.23	16.1	18.0	-1.89
David Lee	54	54	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	0.18	-22	10	-32	15.4	13.2	2.25	17.2	16.3	0.91
Stephen Curry	85	84	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.12	-12	0	-12	14.4	15.6	-1.18	16.9	15.7	1.18
Monta Ellis	90	91	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.14	-12	0	-12	14.7	6.0	8.67	16.8	23.0	-6.24

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.36,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.26,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.22,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.19,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.04,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 100, MIA 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.39,0.38,0.29,0.31,0.34,0.31,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.1,0.13,0.19,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.09,0.1,0.07,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0	97.0%
MIA 95, NJN 76	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.34,0.31,0.3,0.27,0.27,0.28,0.24,0.21,0.18,0.16,0.11,0.12,0.14,0.1,0.09,0.14,0.15,0.16,0.15,0.1,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.0%
DET 100, PHI 77	0.5,0.51,0.44,0.4,0.37,0.31,0.3,0.31,0.29,0.26,0.24,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.23,0.19,0.11,0.14,0.1,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.9%