NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	106		Excitement	8.5 [167]		MVP	Ray Allen (BOS): +54.6%
Boston Celtics	109		Comeback	1.9 [641]		LVP	Nate Robinson (BOS): -14.3%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandon Bass	0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.04	0.01	7	68%	0.10	0	0.00	5	100%	0.02
Jason Richardson	0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.21,0.21,0.1,0.09	-0.04	0.10	-0.04	14	44%	0.14	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.01
Ryan Anderson	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.09,0.09	0.15	-0.06	0.01	8	89%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Hedo Turkoglu	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.06,0.14,0.14,0.08	-0.03	0.11	-0.01	11	46%	0.12	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Jameer Nelson	0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01	5	75%	0.14	2	-0.10	2	50%	-0.03
Gilbert Arenas	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	6	50%	0.04	3	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
JJ Redick	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	4	33%	-0.04	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Dwight Howard	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.09,-0.08	0.08	-0.11	0.05	19	59%	0.03	3	-0.11	18	72%	-0.07

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.33,0.33,0.53,0.53,0.55	0.55	0.22	0.33	0.00	11	90%	0.57	1	-0.02	7	100%	0.04
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.35	0.35	0.09	0.26	-0.00	7	74%	0.37	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.03
Glen Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.08	0.09	-0.01	10	62%	0.18	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	6	83%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	0.01	0.02	7	75%	0.11	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Marquis Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.00	5	60%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	13	59%	0.29	4	-0.29	6	83%	0.07
Luke Harangody	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	37%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Nate Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	8	25%	-0.10	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.7	38.2	19.6	26.2	3.5	39.2	155.5
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +57.3%

BOS +33.6%

ORL -37.2%

ORL -4.6%

BOS +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	BOS	NBA	ORL	BOS	NBA
this game	16.7	16.6	15.5	123.3	125.3	105.7
season	15.2	15.7		106.3	104.8
opponent	15.8	16.2		99.6	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.2	17.2	17.2	17.4	16.7
BOS	16.1	14.9	19.8	16.1	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandon Bass	42	43	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.03	2	-5	7	16.5	16.9	-0.41	16.5	16.6	-0.10
Gilbert Arenas	30	28	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.11	1	-4	5	16.0	17.1	-1.04	16.5	16.6	-0.13
JJ Redick	33	33	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.13	-1	-2	1	16.1	17.1	-1.00	15.9	17.0	-1.04
Jameer Nelson	56	59	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.26	-4	1	-5	17.1	16.0	1.04	16.6	16.5	0.13
Jason Richardson	76	79	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.29	-4	1	-5	16.8	15.9	0.92	16.4	18.6	-2.25
Hedo Turkoglu	63	62	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.41	-1	-2	1	16.9	16.2	0.73	17.2	15.1	2.11
Ryan Anderson	53	52	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.44	-2	-1	-1	17.0	16.2	0.81	16.7	16.5	0.17
Dwight Howard	77	79	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.39	-6	3	-9	16.6	17.6	-0.95	16.6	16.7	-0.18

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Glen Davis	56	56	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.50	5	-2	7	16.1	17.5	-1.44	17.2	15.8	1.35
Ray Allen	71	69	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.44	5	-2	7	16.8	15.8	0.95	16.5	17.6	-1.17
Rajon Rondo	68	65	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.26	10	-7	17	16.6	16.4	0.21	17.0	15.8	1.19
Kevin Garnett	57	56	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.25	7	-4	11	16.5	16.8	-0.38	16.7	16.6	0.12
Paul Pierce	70	69	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.18	6	-3	9	16.5	16.8	-0.29	17.0	15.6	1.40
Shaquille O'Neal	46	45	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.01	4	-1	5	17.5	15.5	1.99	16.0	17.5	-1.49
Marquis Daniels	33	34	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.20	-5	8	-13	16.3	16.7	-0.41	16.6	16.8	-0.15
Nate Robinson	19	21	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.11	-7	10	-17	16.4	16.6	-0.21	15.8	17.0	-1.19
Luke Harangody	15	15	-0.19	0.69	-0.89	0.10	-10	13	-23	16.1	16.7	-0.55	16.9	16.7	0.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.69,0.66,0.71,0.63,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.61,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.6,0.5,0.66,0.71,0.67,0.63,0.83,0.67,0.54,0.53,0.46,0.55,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 99, CHA 102	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.61,0.62,0.65,0.68,0.65,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.59,0.65,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.74,0.79,0.67,0.81,0.78,0.65,0.61,0.74,0.63,0.67,0.74,1	92.2%
TOR 89, PHI 94	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.58,0.62,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.7,0.79,0.76,0.8,0.74,0.76,0.73,0.81,0.64,0.55,0.72,1	91.7%
NJN 90, SEA 96	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.52,0.62,0.69,0.7,0.56,0.5,0.57,0.7,0.8,0.68,0.64,0.76,0.83,0.62,0.54,0.45,0.58,1	91.5%