NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Jersey Nets	103		Excitement	7.5 [349]		MVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): +18.8%
Denver Nuggets	107		Comeback	1.6 [1177]		LVP	Brook Lopez (NJN): -18.8%

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick Favors	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.11	0.04	-0.00	6	74%	0.15	0	0.00	7	86%	0.02
Travis Outlaw	0.11	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.12,0.11	0.03	0.07	-0.00	13	47%	0.11	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.02
Anthony Morrow	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	12	48%	0.05	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.03
Kris Humphries	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.01	7	53%	0.01	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Jordan Farmar	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,-0.02,-0.02	0.04	-0.07	-0.02	10	64%	0.05	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.03
Johan Petro	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	6	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Graham	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03	0.00	-0.04	0.00	9	50%	-0.03	1	0.00	6	100%	0.03
Terrence Williams	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	3	25%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Brook Lopez	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.19	-0.03	-0.14	0.02	21	45%	-0.13	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.2,0.19	0.19	0.04	0.16	0.02	25	50%	0.22	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.08
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.15	0.00	0.00	8	94%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nene	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.11	0.04	0.00	11	59%	0.14	0	0.00	15	80%	0.02
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.09,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.03	-0.03	9	58%	0.13	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.02
Melvin Ely	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	-0.00	0.00	4	75%	0.05	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.07
Gary Forbes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.02	0.00	6	42%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shelden Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	5	20%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	3	67%	0.03	4	-0.11	6	83%	0.01
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	7	21%	-0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	2.6	28.2	15.7	28.2	2.3	35.6	138.1
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +60.4%

NJN -2.4%

NJN -10.9%

NJN -2.9%

DEN +5.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NJN	DEN	NBA	NJN	DEN	NBA
this game	16.9	13.9	15.5	109.6	115.1	105.7
season	16.4	14.3		101.6	110.7
opponent	15.5	15.3		106.1	108.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NJN	15.9	17.7	16.8	17.0	16.9
DEN	14.1	13.6	14.4	13.7	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kris Humphries	39	38	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.13	-1	-3	2	16.5	17.1	-0.67	13.4	14.3	-0.83
Anthony Morrow	64	63	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.37	7	-11	18	16.4	17.8	-1.39	14.2	13.4	0.79
Stephen Graham	13	12	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.00	-7	3	-10	18.6	16.6	2.05	16.5	13.6	2.94
Derrick Favors	48	46	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.07	-5	1	-6	17.6	16.1	1.45	14.8	13.1	1.68
Brook Lopez	72	73	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.34	4	-8	12	16.6	17.8	-1.26	13.8	14.2	-0.40
Terrence Williams	16	15	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.04	-7	3	-10	18.2	16.6	1.69	12.7	14.2	-1.43
Johan Petro	22	20	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.03	-8	4	-12	17.8	16.6	1.26	14.2	13.8	0.40
Devin Harris	59	60	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.30	0	-4	4	16.5	17.5	-0.97	13.7	14.4	-0.66
Travis Outlaw	85	85	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.39	3	-7	10	16.9	16.4	0.45	13.9	14.6	-0.75
Jordan Farmar	52	53	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.24	-6	2	-8	16.5	17.3	-0.79	13.4	14.7	-1.30

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Harrington	51	52	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.26	9	-5	14	13.7	14.2	-0.55	17.8	15.7	2.10
Chauncey Billups	67	67	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.36	3	1	2	13.7	14.7	-1.00	16.3	18.2	-1.87
Gary Forbes	20	21	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.11	10	-6	16	13.4	14.1	-0.62	17.6	16.6	0.99
Nene	66	66	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.36	1	3	-2	13.8	14.2	-0.35	16.1	18.6	-2.50
Arron Afflalo	56	57	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.34	-3	7	-10	13.8	14.2	-0.38	15.7	18.6	-2.96
J.R. Smith	35	37	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.06	5	-1	6	13.7	14.1	-0.31	17.8	16.2	1.54
Carmelo Anthony	71	70	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.25	-4	8	-12	14.1	13.4	0.75	16.7	17.4	-0.76
Ty Lawson	38	38	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.03	3	1	2	14.1	13.8	0.33	17.7	16.3	1.35
Melvin Ely	31	31	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.06	-1	5	-6	14.2	13.8	0.44	18.9	15.9	3.01
Shelden Williams	30	31	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.08	-3	7	-10	15.1	13.4	1.67	16.0	17.3	-1.32

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.39,0.51,0.6,0.51,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.56,0.64,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.68,0.55,0.69,0.6,0.56,0.81,0.89,0.94,0.91,0.92,0.83,0.65,0.83,0.85,0.9,0.84,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 93, CHI 100	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.64,0.63,0.71,0.72,0.69,0.7,0.64,0.62,0.71,0.66,0.66,0.74,0.73,0.74,0.87,0.9,0.94,0.95,0.87,0.71,0.83,0.69,0.79,0.97,0.98,1	92.9%
GSW 83, BOS 84	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.63,0.66,0.67,0.61,0.67,0.68,0.71,0.59,0.66,0.73,0.68,0.81,0.84,0.82,0.87,0.88,0.82,0.71,0.78,0.8,0.89,0.95,0.91,1	92.8%
UTA 84, MIN 89	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.52,0.53,0.61,0.64,0.72,0.7,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.69,0.81,0.79,0.77,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.74,0.64,0.81,0.87,0.88,0.83,0.85,0.79,0.71,0.8,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.91,1	92.6%