NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	105		Excitement	4.8 [883]		MVP	Al Horford (ATL): +15.0%
Atlanta Hawks	111		Comeback	2.0 [1101]		LVP	Darko Milicic (MIN): -13.0%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Tolliver	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.13	0.01	0.02	7	87%	0.12	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Kosta Koufos	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Johnson	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	8	62%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Corey Brewer	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.03	8	46%	0.05	2	-0.04	8	75%	-0.01
Sebastian Telfair	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.05	-0.02	0.03	9	78%	0.10	5	-0.11	5	80%	0.01
Lazar Hayward	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.06	16	64%	0.05	5	-0.10	7	57%	-0.03
Kevin Love	-0.05	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	0.03	15	58%	0.01	5	-0.06	8	100%	0.03
Sundiata Gaines	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Darko Milicic	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.14	-0.01	-0.02	7	12%	-0.09	2	-0.04	2	0%	-0.04

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Horford	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.22	0.00	0.07	14	74%	0.15	0	0.00	10	100%	0.02
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.01	-0.01	5	75%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Joe Johnson	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.02	-0.01	12	57%	0.10	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.00
Josh Smith	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.02	20	55%	0.11	5	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	3	40%	0.02	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Jamal Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	8	52%	0.06	3	-0.05	5	100%	0.02
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	8	45%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Jeff Teague	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	67%	0.03	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	4	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.00
Josh Powell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	-0.00	-0.03	4	25%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.2	2.4	30.3	15.6	27.0	1.7	43.4	149.7
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +21.9%

ATL +9.3%

ATL +0.6%

ATL +10.7%

ATL +7.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	ATL	NBA	MIN	ATL	NBA
this game	13.5	16.2	15.5	108.2	114.4	105.7
season	14.3	16.5		102.7	104.0
opponent	15.5	15.1		105.1	109.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	12.7	16.1	13.5	12.2	13.5
ATL	15.6	15.9	17.8	15.5	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Tolliver	44	41	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.13	1	-7	8	13.5	13.6	-0.09	16.4	16.0	0.39
Michael Beasley	67	70	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.36	6	-12	18	13.2	14.3	-1.17	16.4	15.6	0.84
Darko Milicic	38	39	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.07	-6	0	-6	14.4	13.0	1.39	17.3	15.4	1.95
Sebastian Telfair	80	79	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.42	6	-12	18	13.3	14.6	-1.29	16.5	14.7	1.77
Kosta Koufos	13	13	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	0.10	-12	6	-18	13.7	13.5	0.19	13.6	16.6	-2.94
Sundiata Gaines	17	18	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	0.10	-12	6	-18	14.6	13.3	1.29	14.7	16.5	-1.77
Lazar Hayward	22	21	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.13	-14	8	-22	14.4	13.3	1.14	14.2	16.7	-2.46
Wesley Johnson	75	74	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.27	-1	-5	4	13.9	12.2	1.68	16.1	16.2	-0.07
Corey Brewer	47	48	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.30	0	-6	6	12.3	14.6	-2.30	16.1	16.2	-0.12
Kevin Love	82	82	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.39	2	-8	10	13.5	13.5	-0.01	16.2	15.7	0.51

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Horford	74	71	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.28	5	1	4	16.1	16.5	-0.41	13.2	14.3	-1.07
Maurice Evans	38	36	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.06	11	-5	16	13.6	17.8	-4.25	12.9	13.9	-0.97
Josh Smith	81	79	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.36	0	6	-6	16.4	15.0	1.40	13.5	13.8	-0.38
Mike Bibby	40	42	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.12	8	-2	10	17.0	15.6	1.46	14.5	12.8	1.63
Jeff Teague	34	36	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.00	11	-5	16	15.8	16.4	-0.57	13.1	13.8	-0.66
Jamal Crawford	58	60	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.08	8	-2	10	17.9	13.6	4.22	13.8	13.1	0.76
Joe Johnson	58	56	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.33	-7	13	-20	15.8	16.8	-1.01	13.3	13.8	-0.53
Marvin Williams	58	56	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.32	-8	14	-22	16.2	16.1	0.10	13.2	14.0	-0.78
Josh Powell	22	25	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.04	1	5	-4	16.0	16.2	-0.21	14.4	13.2	1.18
Zaza Pachulia	22	24	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.04	1	5	-4	15.8	16.3	-0.51	14.2	13.3	0.85

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.45,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.67,0.65,0.67,0.59,0.68,0.71,0.76,0.69,0.7,0.73,0.79,0.84,0.87,0.83,0.84,0.87,0.85,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.85,0.9,0.92,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.93,0.96,1,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 81, SAS 99	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.45,0.37,0.41,0.4,0.47,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.56,0.62,0.58,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.69,0.73,0.76,0.77,0.73,0.67,0.69,0.77,0.83,0.85,0.86,0.84,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.94,0.91,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,1	95.8%
PHI 88, CHA 105	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.4,0.41,0.45,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.69,0.68,0.71,0.67,0.76,0.67,0.78,0.8,0.84,0.86,0.85,0.87,0.81,0.82,0.85,0.86,0.91,0.91,0.93,0.92,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.5%
BOS 87, SEA 108	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.43,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.66,0.68,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.79,0.88,0.87,0.81,0.76,0.82,0.81,0.89,0.88,0.87,0.9,0.85,0.9,0.92,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.4%