NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	93		Excitement	7.4 [355]		MVP	Emeka Okafor (NOH): +36.7%
New Orleans Hornets	96		Comeback	1.4 [410]		LVP	Chris Paul (NOH): -23.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.02	0.00	6	83%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07	0.04	0.04	0.01	13	58%	0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.04	0.00	7	50%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Joel Anthony	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.16,-0.26,-0.17,0	-0.02	0.03	0.01	16	50%	0.20	3	-0.20	8	87%	0.12
Dwyane Wade	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.22,0.17,0.17,-0.05	0.02	-0.08	-0.01	16	62%	0.30	7	-0.35	13	100%	0.12
James Jones	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.05	0.02	-0.07	-0.00	6	50%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Eddie House	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17	-0.11	-0.06	-0.00	10	20%	-0.13	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Emeka Okafor	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.37,0.37,0.37	0.37	0.22	0.16	0.01	13	90%	0.39	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.18	0.18	-0.00	0.18	-0.01	7	50%	0.20	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.08
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.1	0.10	-0.01	0.08	-0.03	13	50%	0.15	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
David West	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.08	0.08	-0.01	0.08	-0.01	12	50%	0.13	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.03
Jason Smith	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.01	10	52%	0.07	1	-0.02	3	67%	0.01
Marcus Thornton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	3	83%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Willie Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
DJ Mbenga	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerryd Bayless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Chris Paul	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.15,-0.24,-0.24	-0.24	-0.05	-0.19	-0.00	13	45%	-0.11	3	-0.13	3	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.4	30.5	16.4	25.5	2.6	42.3	144.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOH +48.5%

MIA -18.5%

NOH +5.7%

NOH +22.9%

MIA -8.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	NOH	NBA	MIA	NOH	NBA
this game	15.2	16.4	15.5	101.1	106.7	105.7
season	16.0	16.2		109.0	104.6
opponent	15.9	15.6		104.4	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.6	14.5	16.3	12.8	15.2
NOH	15.8	18.2	15.0	16.7	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Jones	56	54	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.47	15	-18	33	13.1	18.7	-5.61	17.3	15.1	2.12
Udonis Haslem	51	48	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.27	7	-10	17	13.5	17.4	-3.82	17.2	15.5	1.80
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	44	43	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.23	3	-6	9	14.2	16.2	-2.09	16.9	16.0	0.90
Joel Anthony	25	25	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.07	-10	7	-17	18.8	13.9	4.87	16.0	16.6	-0.62
Eddie House	48	47	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.39	5	-8	13	13.6	17.0	-3.35	17.0	15.7	1.32
Carlos Arroyo	30	30	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.04	-11	8	-19	18.7	13.6	5.12	15.9	16.6	-0.72
Chris Bosh	63	63	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.33	-4	1	-5	16.1	13.3	2.78	15.9	17.7	-1.79
Dwyane Wade	76	75	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.32	-7	4	-11	15.7	13.2	2.42	16.0	18.5	-2.47
LeBron James	84	82	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.41	-6	3	-9	15.4	13.7	1.64	16.2	18.5	-2.29

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Smith	45	50	0.73	-0.23	0.97	0.18	19	-16	35	15.8	17.0	-1.22	15.0	15.5	-0.46
Trevor Ariza	70	71	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.35	9	-6	15	15.7	19.0	-3.33	15.4	14.8	0.57
Chris Paul	68	69	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.26	9	-6	15	15.6	18.8	-3.13	15.9	13.4	2.42
Marco Belinelli	57	58	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.33	4	-1	5	16.8	15.7	1.08	16.0	13.9	2.08
David West	53	52	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.37	-8	11	-19	16.5	16.4	0.10	15.6	14.8	0.80
Emeka Okafor	65	66	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.12	0	3	-3	16.3	16.7	-0.43	16.0	13.4	2.60
Marcus Thornton	19	19	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.08	0	3	-3	16.7	16.3	0.41	15.4	15.2	0.22
Willie Green	35	37	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.13	-5	8	-13	16.6	16.3	0.36	13.5	16.5	-3.00
Jerryd Bayless	22	23	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.16	-6	9	-15	18.8	15.6	3.13	13.4	15.9	-2.42
DJ Mbenga	16	15	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.09	-7	10	-17	19.4	15.8	3.68	12.1	15.9	-3.72

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.66,0.65,0.63,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.75,0.74,0.78,0.74,0.66,0.73,0.67,0.66,0.7,0.69,0.61,0.66,0.73,0.75,0.74,0.8,0.8,0.81,0.79,0.79,0.75,0.76,0.83,0.86,0.89,0.81,0.78,0.75,0.87,0.85,0.79,0.78,0.72,0.81,0.54,0.67,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 93, HOU 95	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.55,0.57,0.67,0.69,0.74,0.75,0.72,0.78,0.68,0.67,0.71,0.67,0.68,0.69,0.78,0.74,0.75,0.73,0.73,0.71,0.84,0.85,0.89,0.86,0.87,0.81,0.89,0.87,0.86,0.85,0.87,0.87,0.88,0.76,0.9,0.78,0.76,0.73,0.86,0.64,0.57,0.73,1	93.7%
DEN 93, MEM 96	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.73,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.76,0.66,0.71,0.71,0.69,0.76,0.68,0.78,0.74,0.75,0.8,0.86,0.84,0.85,0.87,0.87,0.84,0.84,0.83,0.82,0.74,0.78,0.85,0.78,0.74,0.79,0.83,0.77,0.64,0.59,0.74,0.61,0.54,0.76,0.42,1	92.5%
MEM 96, SAC 104	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.56,0.6,0.57,0.61,0.7,0.73,0.76,0.72,0.81,0.8,0.77,0.71,0.67,0.63,0.64,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.65,0.67,0.71,0.79,0.8,0.7,0.79,0.84,0.74,0.81,0.73,0.71,0.75,0.81,0.7,0.82,0.91,0.91,0.86,0.81,0.61,0.68,0.63,0.78,0.85,1	92.3%