NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	97		Excitement	4.5 [899]		MVP	Dwight Howard (ORL): +6.2%
Orlando Magic	106		Comeback	1.9 [1255]		LVP	Ryan Gomes (MIN): -8.0%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jonny Flynn	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.00	12	52%	0.05	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Damien Wilkins	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Oleksiy Pecherov	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sasha Pavlovic	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	4	37%	-0.01	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Hollins	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ramon Sessions	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	3	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kevin Love	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	11	52%	0.05	3	-0.07	5	80%	0.01
Darko Milicic	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	16	44%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Jefferson	-0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.03	-0.04	0.01	16	56%	0.04	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Corey Brewer	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	-0.00	12	54%	0.01	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.00
Wayne Ellington	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.05	-0.00	0.08	4	80%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Ryan Gomes	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.02	-0.02	0.04	7	42%	-0.06	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.02

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.10	0.00	0.04	7	80%	0.16	5	-0.10	16	75%	-0.02
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.10	0.00	0.04	8	70%	0.06	0	0.00	4	100%	0.00
Vince Carter	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	-0.00	-0.02	9	65%	0.08	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.05	7	57%	0.06	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Marcin Gortat	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.06	7	29%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Barnes	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	11	50%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	16	53%	0.06	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	4	37%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	10	50%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.8	3.3	26.8	17.6	33.0	2.0	29.4	135.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +48.3%

ORL +0.8%

ORL +8.8%

MIN -7.5%

MIN -0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	ORL	NBA	MIN	ORL	NBA
this game	16.5	13.6	15.3	102.1	110.4	106.0
season	14.7	15.4		100.1	110.1
opponent	15.9	14.8		101.9	109.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	16.2	15.8	18.5	15.9	16.5
ORL	11.5	13.7	14.2	15.4	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Oleksiy Pecherov	5	6	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-13	17	11.2	16.8	-5.64	13.0	13.7	-0.67
Damien Wilkins	6	6	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.05	1	-10	11	20.0	16.3	3.69	16.0	13.5	2.53
Ryan Hollins	13	12	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.09	0	-9	9	12.8	17.1	-4.38	14.5	13.5	1.00
Corey Brewer	57	58	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	0.06	-6	-3	-3	16.1	17.2	-1.11	13.5	13.8	-0.27
Darko Milicic	62	63	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.24	3	-12	15	16.7	16.3	0.33	13.4	14.1	-0.71
Wayne Ellington	27	28	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.27	2	-11	13	15.0	17.1	-2.11	13.2	13.8	-0.58
Al Jefferson	56	60	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.00	-8	-1	-7	17.6	15.1	2.45	13.8	13.3	0.51
Ramon Sessions	34	34	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.04	-7	-2	-5	15.6	17.0	-1.40	13.9	13.5	0.49
Jonny Flynn	61	62	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.20	-2	-7	5	17.0	15.6	1.40	13.5	13.9	-0.49
Ryan Gomes	65	65	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.19	-3	-6	3	16.7	16.1	0.61	14.3	12.2	2.07
Sasha Pavlovic	35	35	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.03	-12	3	-15	17.5	16.0	1.49	12.5	14.3	-1.79
Kevin Love	54	51	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.03	-17	8	-25	16.8	16.2	0.53	13.6	13.7	-0.12

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vince Carter	79	78	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.15	12	-3	15	13.8	12.8	1.05	16.8	15.2	1.60
Dwight Howard	62	63	0.45	0.05	0.40	-0.08	18	-9	27	12.9	15.0	-2.08	17.0	15.7	1.34
Jason Williams	53	52	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.12	6	3	3	14.8	12.2	2.56	15.7	17.6	-1.93
Matt Barnes	62	61	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.10	6	3	3	12.5	15.6	-3.04	17.0	15.8	1.22
Rashard Lewis	50	50	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.00	9	0	9	12.3	15.1	-2.81	17.5	15.5	2.05
Ryan Anderson	46	45	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.23	0	9	-9	15.1	12.3	2.81	15.5	17.5	-2.05
JJ Redick	51	51	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.23	0	9	-9	14.6	12.5	2.18	15.6	17.7	-2.07
Jameer Nelson	43	43	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.12	3	6	-3	12.2	14.8	-2.56	17.6	15.7	1.93
Marcin Gortat	34	32	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.31	-9	18	-27	15.0	12.9	2.08	15.7	17.0	-1.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.43,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.36,0.44,0.46,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.6,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.69,0.73,0.76,0.76,0.86,0.91,0.92,0.85,0.92,0.86,0.85,0.93,0.98,0.94,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 83, DET 103	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.4,0.39,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.5,0.56,0.47,0.56,0.54,0.47,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.75,0.76,0.76,0.77,0.85,0.84,0.87,0.91,0.97,0.95,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.1%
ATL 72, IND 91	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.52,0.47,0.44,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.52,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.75,0.76,0.73,0.87,0.81,0.79,0.79,0.86,0.89,0.92,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.3%
VAN 89, PHI 107	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.41,0.37,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.48,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.69,0.81,0.76,0.79,0.88,0.91,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.2%