NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	111		Excitement	4.2 [956]		MVP	Nene (DEN): +14.5%
Denver Nuggets	92		Comeback	1.0 [455]		LVP	Chauncey Billups (DEN): -9.4%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeJuan Blair	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.01	0.01	11	74%	0.11	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Roger Mason Jr.	0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.00	-0.02	12	58%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.01	9	70%	0.11	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Antonio McDyess	0.08	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.01	0.00	7	71%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.01	0.02	11	59%	0.07	2	-0.04	5	40%	-0.02
Matt Bonner	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Ian Mahinmi	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	100%	0.00	3	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Keith Bogans	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
George Hill	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.07	0.01	-0.04	12	50%	0.05	5	-0.07	10	70%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	11	50%	0.02	2	-0.05	8	62%	-0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nene	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.14	0.01	0.01	9	87%	0.17	2	-0.02	5	80%	0.01
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	2	67%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Joey Graham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johan Petro	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	0.02	2	67%	-0.01	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	14	38%	-0.06	1	-0.00	9	67%	0.00
Malik Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.00	0.02	7	43%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	-0.02	-0.04	10	30%	-0.04	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	17	45%	0.01	4	-0.08	8	62%	-0.02
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	0.01	16	40%	-0.05	2	-0.05	10	80%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	3.4	36.5	19.7	30.2	3.6	33.2	152.9
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +58.2%

DEN -4.2%

DEN -3.8%

SAS +0.7%

DEN -0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DEN	NBA	SAS	DEN	NBA
this game	16.2	14.4	15.3	118.1	97.9	106.0
season	15.9	14.4		108.2	110.3
opponent	15.5	15.1		106.4	103.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.5	13.5	17.6	17.7	16.2
DEN	17.0	13.7	14.5	12.9	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
George Hill	67	68	0.40	0.10	0.30	-0.07	16	3	13	16.3	16.0	0.25	15.2	12.4	2.77
Manu Ginobili	53	54	0.33	0.17	0.15	-0.14	16	3	13	15.8	16.8	-0.96	13.9	15.2	-1.30
Keith Bogans	46	45	0.30	0.20	0.09	-0.03	11	8	3	16.4	16.0	0.43	12.3	16.4	-4.10
Roger Mason Jr.	65	65	0.29	0.21	0.08	-0.03	11	8	3	16.8	14.8	2.05	14.6	14.1	0.52
DeJuan Blair	43	41	0.28	0.22	0.05	-0.02	10	9	1	16.1	16.3	-0.13	13.3	15.3	-1.97
Matt Bonner	27	27	0.25	0.25	0.01	-0.07	11	8	3	14.8	16.8	-2.01	16.1	13.7	2.36
Tim Duncan	51	53	0.22	0.28	-0.05	-0.04	9	10	-1	16.3	16.1	0.13	15.3	13.3	1.97
Antonio McDyess	31	30	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.02	7	12	-5	17.0	15.8	1.13	15.5	13.9	1.63
Richard Jefferson	64	64	0.22	0.28	-0.07	-0.05	9	10	-1	16.7	15.1	1.63	15.1	13.1	2.00
Ian Mahinmi	7	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	21	-23	14.1	16.4	-2.24	11.9	14.6	-2.78
Michael Finley	16	16	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.08	-3	22	-25	13.9	16.7	-2.82	12.1	14.9	-2.85

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joey Graham	12	12	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.08	4	-23	27	11.2	14.9	-3.74	14.5	16.5	-1.96
Johan Petro	9	10	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-21	23	12.4	14.6	-2.19	16.5	16.2	0.32
Nene	62	61	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.06	-4	-15	11	14.6	14.0	0.65	16.8	15.1	1.73
Ty Lawson	41	41	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.07	-9	-10	1	13.2	15.4	-2.18	15.4	16.8	-1.46
J.R. Smith	43	45	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	0.14	-14	-5	-9	14.2	14.6	-0.40	16.9	15.6	1.34
Arron Afflalo	76	75	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	0.02	-12	-7	-5	14.3	15.1	-0.78	16.1	16.8	-0.72
Chauncey Billups	67	65	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.03	-11	-8	-3	14.6	13.9	0.75	16.7	15.2	1.45
Malik Allen	45	46	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	0.07	-15	-4	-11	16.4	12.6	3.75	15.5	16.9	-1.35
Chris Andersen	44	45	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.07	-16	-3	-13	13.9	14.9	-0.97	15.8	16.6	-0.88
Carmelo Anthony	71	70	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.15	-20	1	-21	14.9	12.9	2.00	16.5	15.5	0.96

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.43,0.38,0.36,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.18,0.19,0.22,0.19,0.2,0.16,0.25,0.23,0.26,0.36,0.24,0.16,0.26,0.2,0.11,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 106, MIN 92	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.51,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.43,0.44,0.38,0.36,0.29,0.31,0.22,0.21,0.24,0.23,0.27,0.25,0.2,0.21,0.22,0.33,0.24,0.27,0.18,0.2,0.16,0.09,0.08,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.9%
CHI 108, DET 92	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.4,0.34,0.33,0.29,0.22,0.18,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.3,0.27,0.26,0.25,0.27,0.3,0.21,0.18,0.1,0.09,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.5%
DAL 105, DEN 94	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.4,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.27,0.25,0.29,0.28,0.25,0.26,0.24,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.26,0.3,0.19,0.21,0.23,0.2,0.19,0.13,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.06,0.09,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	95.5%