NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	101		Excitement	8.8 [136]		MVP	Nene (DEN): +35.8%
Sacramento Kings	106		Comeback	2.6 [364]		LVP	Sergio Rodriguez (SAC): -27.0%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nene	0.36	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.36,0.36,0.36	0.17	0.19	0.01	11	69%	0.36	0	0.00	14	64%	-0.02
Chris Andersen	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.04	0.00	3	60%	0.06	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Arron Afflalo	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	6	42%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01	-0.00	0.03	0.01	6	42%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	-0.05	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	11	38%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Ty Lawson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	0.03	13	43%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.04
J.R. Smith	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.21	-0.19	-0.04	-0.01	9	18%	-0.12	4	-0.09	4	50%	-0.02
Carmelo Anthony	-0.26	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.26,-0.26	-0.08	-0.19	-0.01	35	44%	-0.15	4	-0.12	7	43%	-0.12

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andres Nocioni	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.26,0.36,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31	0.31	0.18	0.12	-0.00	7	105%	0.38	2	-0.08	6	83%	0.03
Omri Casspi	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	-0.02	0.18	0.00	9	50%	0.21	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.02
Donte Greene	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.11	0.07	0.02	9	77%	0.18	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Jason Thompson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.05	0.00	12	52%	0.10	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.05
Ime Udoka	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	-0.00	-0.00	4	70%	0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.05
Jon Brockman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.03	0.00	3	60%	0.07	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.03
Kenny Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.2,-0.22,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.23,-0.23,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.10	0.05	-0.00	17	45%	0.09	5	-0.13	4	75%	-0.01
Spencer Hawes	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.06	0.00	7	43%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Sergio Rodriguez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.16,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27	-0.27	-0.17	-0.13	-0.03	11	23%	-0.19	3	-0.08	4	50%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.5	31.2	15.0	30.0	2.5	43.5	148.8
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +53.5%

SAC +20.3%

DEN -1.7%

DEN -24.3%

SAC +2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SAC	NBA	DEN	SAC	NBA
this game	14.8	14.5	15.3	103.1	107.1	106.0
season	14.4	15.2		110.3	103.7
opponent	15.0	15.5		108.5	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	11.4	16.3	16.8	15.2	14.8
SAC	14.8	14.4	13.3	15.4	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Arron Afflalo	46	44	0.14	-0.64	0.79	-0.00	5	-10	15	13.1	16.2	-3.10	13.9	14.9	-1.04
Nene	78	77	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.32	4	-9	13	14.4	16.0	-1.60	14.8	13.2	1.65
Kenyon Martin	76	80	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.30	2	-7	9	14.4	16.0	-1.64	14.6	13.7	0.97
Ty Lawson	79	79	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.38	2	-7	9	14.6	15.7	-1.13	14.5	14.2	0.33
Carmelo Anthony	87	87	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.38	2	-7	9	14.2	19.2	-4.96	14.9	11.7	3.18
Anthony Carter	43	43	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.22	-9	4	-13	15.3	14.3	1.02	14.4	14.5	-0.04
J.R. Smith	42	46	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.08	-15	10	-25	16.7	13.3	3.43	13.6	15.2	-1.56
Chris Andersen	39	39	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.08	-16	11	-27	17.0	13.3	3.74	14.0	14.7	-0.72

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Omri Casspi	75	72	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.56	1	4	-3	15.2	12.2	2.98	15.0	14.2	0.74
Donte Greene	51	52	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.47	2	3	-1	13.8	15.2	-1.40	13.3	16.4	-3.09
Jason Thompson	80	80	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.20	6	-1	7	14.6	13.8	0.77	14.4	16.6	-2.18
Spencer Hawes	45	44	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.40	-2	7	-9	14.8	14.2	0.61	13.3	16.0	-2.64
Beno Udrih	84	83	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.29	1	4	-3	14.2	15.9	-1.65	14.5	16.1	-1.52
Andres Nocioni	49	49	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.10	13	-8	21	14.1	14.8	-0.68	16.9	12.6	4.33
Sergio Rodriguez	46	46	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.13	10	-5	15	13.4	15.4	-2.05	15.4	14.2	1.12
Ime Udoka	28	28	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.02	2	3	-1	14.7	14.4	0.30	14.0	15.1	-1.09
Jon Brockman	31	30	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.01	-2	7	-9	15.0	14.2	0.83	17.9	13.4	4.45
Kenny Thomas	6	6	-0.12	0.62	-0.75	0.05	-6	11	-17	17.5	14.3	3.23	10.2	15.1	-4.91

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.31,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.36,0.38,0.33,0.44,0.44,0.48,0.46,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.5,0.42,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.56,0.52,0.68,0.7,0.7,0.62,0.72,0.68,0.69,0.8,0.66,0.62,0.37,0.55,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 94, MIL 103	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.52,0.6,0.52,0.55,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.56,0.56,0.75,0.74,0.81,0.88,0.73,0.85,0.82,0.7,0.72,0.75,0.55,0.43,0.81,1	91.9%
SEA 93, DET 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.35,0.3,0.29,0.36,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.39,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.57,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.48,0.63,0.56,0.62,0.71,0.62,0.62,0.68,0.74,0.71,0.67,0.75,0.63,0.84,0.72,1	90.9%
IND 92, CLE 96	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.37,0.44,0.38,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.41,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.59,0.56,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.54,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.47,0.53,0.73,0.56,0.46,0.55,0.92,1	90.7%