NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	102		Excitement	7.2 [353]		MVP	Brandon Jennings (MIL): +36.6%
Milwaukee Bucks	108		Comeback	1.4 [478]		LVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): -14.7%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
J.R. Smith	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13	0.03	0.08	-0.02	15	55%	0.17	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Arron Afflalo	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.01	3	83%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	0	75%	0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Nene	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.02	0.03	13	53%	0.03	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Anthony Carter	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.06,0,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.01	0.04	-0.07	-0.01	16	53%	0.00	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Kenyon Martin	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	9	25%	-0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ty Lawson	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.04	0.00	5	20%	-0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	-0.15	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.1,-0.08,-0.05,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.15,-0.16,-0.15	-0.06	-0.10	-0.01	25	50%	0.06	7	-0.21	14	100%	0.09

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandon Jennings	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.28,0.28,0.27,0.37	0.37	0.13	0.21	-0.02	19	70%	0.49	4	-0.12	8	100%	0.07
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12	0.12	0.12	0.03	0.02	15	70%	0.17	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.14	-0.01	0.02	8	85%	0.14	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.01
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.03	0.04	-0.01	5	40%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.00	8	50%	0.03	1	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Roko Leni Ukic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Hakim Warrick	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	10	33%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Charlie Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	3	83%	0.07	5	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
Jodie Meeks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	7	14%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Delfino	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	6	36%	-0.04	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.4	31.8	15.8	26.2	2.5	40.5	143.4
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +74.7%

DEN -7.9%

MIL +9.3%

DEN -25.4%

DEN -0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MIL	NBA	DEN	MIL	NBA
this game	14.2	14.5	15.3	102.0	106.9	106.0
season	14.4	15.5		110.3	103.3
opponent	15.5	15.5		101.8	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.3	11.6	17.1	13.4	14.2
MIL	14.7	14.1	15.0	14.3	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Arron Afflalo	29	28	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.06	1	-7	8	17.5	12.8	4.68	15.1	14.3	0.85
Ty Lawson	45	46	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.14	1	-7	8	13.7	14.6	-0.90	14.2	14.8	-0.63
Anthony Carter	13	14	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	0.00	-5	-1	-4	13.0	14.3	-1.33	14.7	14.5	0.25
Carmelo Anthony	89	90	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.37	2	-8	10	14.3	12.7	1.61	14.7	13.2	1.47
Chris Andersen	43	42	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.04	-10	4	-14	13.2	14.9	-1.63	14.1	14.8	-0.73
Nene	68	70	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.24	-4	-2	-2	14.5	13.4	1.11	14.5	14.4	0.16
Chauncey Billups	77	77	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.26	-4	-2	-2	14.4	13.5	0.89	14.7	13.8	0.92
Kenyon Martin	75	74	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.24	-5	-1	-4	14.1	14.4	-0.32	14.3	14.9	-0.59
J.R. Smith	61	64	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.27	-6	0	-6	13.0	15.9	-2.89	14.3	14.8	-0.41

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandon Jennings	80	79	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.26	8	-2	10	14.7	13.8	0.93	14.2	13.9	0.32
Luc Mbah a Moute	74	72	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.31	3	3	0	14.2	15.2	-0.94	14.3	13.7	0.67
Hakim Warrick	53	53	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.13	7	-1	8	15.2	13.7	1.42	15.6	12.5	3.11
Andrew Bogut	78	78	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.28	1	5	-4	14.8	13.6	1.20	14.2	14.0	0.26
Charlie Bell	74	73	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.17	3	3	0	14.4	14.7	-0.34	14.6	13.1	1.49
Jodie Meeks	29	29	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.14	4	2	2	14.2	14.6	-0.36	12.9	14.7	-1.73
Carlos Delfino	25	26	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.19	1	5	-4	15.6	14.1	1.47	16.6	13.3	3.27
Roko Leni Ukic	8	8	0.11	0.39	-0.29	-0.01	4	2	2	15.5	14.4	1.09	10.4	14.5	-4.11
Ersan Ilyasova	50	49	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.12	-2	8	-10	13.8	15.1	-1.30	12.0	16.2	-4.24
Dan Gadzuric	13	12	0.06	0.44	-0.39	-0.03	3	3	0	12.4	14.8	-2.42	12.8	14.3	-1.51
Luke Ridnour	21	21	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	8	-10	13.8	14.7	-0.93	13.9	14.2	-0.32

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.56,0.5,0.42,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.51,0.63,0.61,0.59,0.49,0.58,0.59,0.67,0.65,0.72,0.64,0.67,0.79,0.79,0.74,0.75,0.73,0.78,0.68,0.85,0.92,0.86,0.83,0.77,0.7,0.71,0.67,0.75,0.93,0.99,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 87, IND 95	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.67,0.73,0.67,0.74,0.8,0.84,0.83,0.78,0.75,0.85,0.87,0.86,0.79,0.68,0.59,0.76,0.72,0.75,0.9,0.99,1,1	93.9%
ATL 88, GSW 92	0.5,0.51,0.44,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.54,0.52,0.58,0.54,0.62,0.65,0.63,0.59,0.56,0.59,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.73,0.69,0.6,0.61,0.7,0.7,0.74,0.74,0.79,0.76,0.74,0.78,0.9,0.93,0.9,0.86,0.81,0.78,0.76,0.82,0.81,0.96,0.99,0.95,1	93.6%
CLE 97, LAC 104	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.5,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.51,0.64,0.67,0.73,0.65,0.69,0.75,0.83,0.81,0.77,0.8,0.73,0.73,0.8,0.75,0.81,0.82,0.86,0.89,0.84,0.89,0.85,0.78,0.75,0.89,0.9,0.98,1	93.6%