NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	91		Excitement	2.5 [1244]		MVP	Richard Hamilton (DET): +8.2%
Detroit Pistons	108		Comeback	1.1 [1249]		LVP	Kwame Brown (DET): -7.1%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Randolph	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	13	52%	0.02	2	-0.01	7	100%	0.01
Jamal Crawford	0.00	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.06	-0.00	0.05	20	50%	0.01	1	-0.01	10	100%	0.03
Jermareo Davidson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	10	44%	-0.00	0	0.00	5	20%	-0.01
Ronny Turiaf	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	5	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rob Kurz	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	0.00	0.01	5	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Marco Belinelli	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	13	46%	-0.01	3	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
CJ Watson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	0.00	-0.01	5	40%	-0.03	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Morrow	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	0.00	-0.00	15	43%	-0.03	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.10	0.00	0.02	15	59%	0.08	0	0.00	7	86%	0.01
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.00	-0.01	11	59%	0.08	1	-0.00	5	80%	0.00
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	0.00	0.03	11	67%	0.05	1	-0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Rodney Stuckey	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.06	12	50%	0.03	3	-0.02	4	50%	-0.01
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	0.00	0.04	7	64%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	2	67%	0.03	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Will Bynum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	12	52%	0.01	2	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Walter Sharpe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	4	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	6	29%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Walter Herrmann	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	7	14%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kwame Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.13	0.00	-0.06	3	20%	-0.02	4	-0.05	4	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.0	1.8	27.4	16.6	24.7	2.0	29.0	129.5
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +30.0%

GSW -1.2%

DET +15.0%

DET +3.6%

DET +2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	DET	NBA	GSW	DET	NBA
this game	13.8	15.3	15.5	92.9	108.0	106.4
season	13.8	16.9		107.3	104.9
opponent	15.7	15.0		106.2	111.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	14.9	12.9	14.5	12.9	13.8
DET	11.8	16.4	17.4	15.9	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jermareo Davidson	65	68	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.26	5	-22	27	13.6	14.2	-0.64	16.6	12.3	4.29
CJ Watson	44	45	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.00	-5	-12	7	13.5	14.1	-0.53	15.9	14.7	1.22
Rob Kurz	44	46	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.15	-5	-12	7	13.5	14.1	-0.53	14.9	15.6	-0.64
Ronny Turiaf	24	23	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.20	-17	0	-17	15.2	13.4	1.90	11.1	16.5	-5.36
Anthony Morrow	67	68	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	0.08	-15	-2	-13	13.4	14.8	-1.40	15.2	15.4	-0.17
Jamal Crawford	78	80	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.09	-10	-7	-3	13.8	13.8	0.02	15.4	14.5	0.95
Marco Belinelli	72	73	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.04	-15	-2	-13	14.0	13.3	0.64	14.9	16.2	-1.32
Anthony Randolph	96	97	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	0.17	-23	6	-29	14.1	2.5	11.55	15.3	14.7	0.61

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rodney Stuckey	75	74	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.07	10	7	3	15.3	15.1	0.19	13.9	13.5	0.47
Tayshaun Prince	60	60	0.34	0.16	0.17	-0.04	13	4	9	14.6	16.2	-1.65	14.6	12.6	1.98
Rasheed Wallace	50	49	0.32	0.18	0.15	-0.06	13	4	9	14.4	16.2	-1.80	14.7	12.9	1.84
Richard Hamilton	50	49	0.32	0.18	0.15	-0.06	13	4	9	14.4	16.2	-1.80	14.7	12.9	1.84
Jason Maxiell	53	51	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.02	9	8	1	16.3	14.1	2.14	13.6	14.0	-0.35
Antonio McDyess	40	40	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.02	8	9	-1	14.6	15.7	-1.06	14.6	13.3	1.32
Will Bynum	35	35	0.22	0.28	-0.07	-0.05	9	8	1	16.5	14.6	1.93	13.9	13.8	0.06
Walter Herrmann	40	38	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.05	4	13	-9	16.2	14.6	1.65	12.6	14.6	-1.98
Kwame Brown	30	30	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.10	0	17	-17	16.7	14.6	2.10	13.8	13.8	0.02
Arron Afflalo	40	38	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.04	2	15	-13	15.2	15.3	-0.10	12.4	14.7	-2.36
Amir Johnson	20	19	0.08	0.42	-0.35	-0.04	4	13	-9	15.3	15.2	0.05	11.4	14.4	-2.97
Walter Sharpe	7	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	17	-17	11.3	15.6	-4.27	10.6	14.1	-3.49

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.53,0.52,0.57,0.61,0.65,0.7,0.8,0.81,0.82,0.84,0.88,0.92,0.91,0.88,0.9,0.89,0.91,0.93,0.92,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.95,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 80, CLE 112	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.6,0.62,0.59,0.67,0.67,0.76,0.75,0.81,0.85,0.9,0.89,0.88,0.88,0.91,0.92,0.92,0.93,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.8%
CHI 76, NJN 103	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.72,0.8,0.79,0.77,0.81,0.86,0.87,0.89,0.91,0.9,0.93,0.95,0.94,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.92,0.97,0.97,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.7%
DAL 75, POR 120	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.53,0.6,0.67,0.7,0.75,0.77,0.79,0.82,0.85,0.87,0.85,0.86,0.9,0.9,0.88,0.92,0.91,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.95,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.5%