NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	97		Excitement	5.7 [695]		MVP	Carl Landry (HOU): +23.0%
Houston Rockets	107		Comeback	2.5 [953]		LVP	Aaron Brooks (HOU): -11.2%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrea Bargnani	0.18	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.20	0.04	0.06	14	83%	0.19	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Chris Bosh	0.05	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.01	22	52%	0.08	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Jose Calderon	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.00	0.03	-0.02	10	50%	0.06	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Roko Leni Ukic	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.03	18	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jake Voskuhl	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kapono	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	11	32%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joey Graham	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	9	33%	-0.05	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Anthony Parker	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.03	8	19%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carl Landry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.19	0.09	0.05	9	85%	0.25	1	-0.02	8	100%	0.05
Metta World Peace	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.04	-0.01	10	65%	0.13	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Von Wafer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.10	0.01	0.02	10	70%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.04	-0.01	7	53%	0.10	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Yao Ming	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.02	0.05	-0.02	16	59%	0.16	5	-0.11	2	100%	0.02
Luis Scola	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	0.00	0.03	17	59%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	6	21%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Aaron Brooks	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.11	-0.02	-0.01	10	32%	-0.05	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.5	28.2	15.8	21.2	2.4	27.6	119.8
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +42.6%

HOU +12.6%

HOU +13.2%

TOR -16.4%

TOR -2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	HOU	NBA	TOR	HOU	NBA
this game	14.5	15.7	15.5	101.0	112.6	106.4
season	15.1	16.3		105.0	105.9
opponent	15.2	15.6		102.7	108.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	14.5	14.3	14.4	14.7	14.5
HOU	13.2	15.7	16.9	17.4	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrea Bargnani	67	67	0.06	-0.56	0.61	-0.36	14	-24	38	14.1	15.3	-1.13	16.2	14.4	1.77
Anthony Parker	68	66	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.18	6	-16	22	14.6	14.2	0.34	15.6	15.8	-0.22
Jose Calderon	79	77	-0.10	-0.41	0.31	-0.24	5	-15	20	14.5	14.6	-0.19	16.1	14.1	2.00
Shawn Marion	83	83	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.25	-1	-9	8	14.5	14.6	-0.15	16.1	12.7	3.35
Jake Voskuhl	13	13	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	0.13	-16	6	-22	14.9	14.4	0.50	13.2	16.1	-2.83
Chris Bosh	80	78	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.06	-10	0	-10	14.6	13.7	0.96	15.7	15.5	0.18
Joey Graham	27	27	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.07	-10	0	-10	14.2	14.6	-0.42	15.0	16.0	-0.99
Roko Leni Ukic	17	18	-0.41	-0.10	-0.31	0.03	-15	5	-20	14.6	14.5	0.19	14.1	16.1	-2.00
Jason Kapono	46	46	-0.71	0.21	-0.92	-0.04	-23	13	-36	14.7	14.3	0.31	15.3	16.0	-0.72

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carl Landry	61	63	0.92	-0.42	1.35	0.04	30	-20	50	15.6	15.7	-0.10	14.6	14.3	0.28
Von Wafer	42	42	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.00	19	-9	28	14.4	16.7	-2.36	15.5	13.7	1.84
Metta World Peace	76	77	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.20	8	2	6	15.9	14.6	1.37	14.4	14.7	-0.31
Kyle Lowry	35	35	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.04	13	-3	16	14.5	16.3	-1.79	14.2	14.7	-0.46
Aaron Brooks	60	61	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.17	-3	13	-16	16.3	14.5	1.79	14.7	14.2	0.46
Yao Ming	63	62	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.18	-4	14	-18	15.6	15.8	-0.26	14.8	14.0	0.80
Luis Scola	66	67	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.19	-6	16	-22	15.8	15.4	0.37	14.1	15.3	-1.18
Shane Battier	72	73	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.21	-7	17	-24	16.2	14.2	1.98	14.0	16.2	-2.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.33,0.32,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.35,0.38,0.39,0.4,0.47,0.54,0.59,0.64,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.7,0.73,0.74,0.6,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.6,0.64,0.7,0.7,0.79,0.91,0.81,0.82,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 100, SAC 111	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.39,0.34,0.35,0.33,0.32,0.38,0.42,0.36,0.4,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.7,0.63,0.55,0.58,0.64,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.59,0.69,0.6,0.56,0.7,0.81,0.85,0.83,0.81,0.83,0.89,0.91,0.95,0.98,1,1,1	93.6%
CLE 82, CHH 94	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.38,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.35,0.37,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.45,0.4,0.44,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.69,0.64,0.59,0.61,0.67,0.63,0.57,0.59,0.48,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.62,0.73,0.85,0.76,0.81,0.7,0.76,0.87,0.93,0.96,0.97,1,1	93.5%
TOR 72, SAS 91	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.46,0.53,0.47,0.41,0.41,0.43,0.38,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.49,0.56,0.52,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.61,0.67,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.45,0.48,0.56,0.64,0.66,0.57,0.75,0.8,0.85,0.92,0.95,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	92.9%