NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	113		Excitement	9.8 [75]		MVP	J.R. Smith (DEN): +30.2%
Houston Rockets	115		Comeback	3.3 [405]		LVP	Chauncey Billups (DEN): -32.4%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
J.R. Smith	0.30	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.31,0.42,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.25,0.43,0.3	0.16	0.14	0.00	14	80%	0.35	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.05
Dahntay Jones	0.05	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.02	0.01	5	83%	0.10	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Carter	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	-0.01	-0.00	4	70%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Nene	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,-0.02	0.11	-0.11	0.01	15	61%	0.08	2	-0.10	8	62%	-0.02
Chris Andersen	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	0.02	3	62%	0.00	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Kenyon Martin	-0.14	0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.04,-0.14	0.03	-0.18	-0.01	17	56%	-0.05	3	-0.10	5	60%	-0.23
Linas Kleiza	-0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.24	-0.01	-0.23	0.00	7	60%	0.06	3	-0.30	1	100%	0.01
Chauncey Billups	-0.32	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.08,-0.08,-0.25,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32	-0.12	-0.18	0.02	12	45%	-0.03	6	-0.29	5	100%	0.04

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.10	0.08	0.00	4	110%	0.23	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Aaron Brooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.04	0.13	0.00	7	56%	0.17	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Von Wafer	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	-0.00	-0.01	17	47%	0.07	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Luis Scola	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.01	-0.01	14	55%	0.09	2	-0.07	1	0%	-0.01
Charles Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Yao Ming	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.09,0.03,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.19,0.24,0	-0.00	0.05	-0.02	0.03	19	69%	0.30	6	-0.30	7	71%	0.01
Carl Landry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	5	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.08	-0.08	0.03	15	56%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	7	43%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.5	28.9	14.0	26.2	1.6	36.2	133.7
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +26.2%

DEN -3.6%

DEN -11.2%

HOU +35.7%

HOU +2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	HOU	NBA	DEN	HOU	NBA
this game	14.2	15.5	15.5	117.7	117.3	106.4
season	14.4	16.3		109.5	105.9
opponent	15.2	15.7		102.7	105.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.6	12.6	15.2	14.4	14.2
HOU	14.2	17.4	13.7	16.9	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dahntay Jones	59	57	0.15	-0.65	0.79	0.06	3	-5	8	13.5	15.3	-1.77	15.7	15.1	0.60
Anthony Carter	40	43	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.03	-1	-1	0	14.0	14.4	-0.36	15.1	15.8	-0.67
Chris Andersen	41	42	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.22	3	-5	8	14.4	14.0	0.40	15.5	15.4	0.14
J.R. Smith	80	80	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.39	6	-8	14	14.2	14.1	0.10	16.3	11.6	4.73
Nene	75	76	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.36	3	-5	8	13.8	15.6	-1.81	16.2	12.9	3.30
Kenyon Martin	76	78	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.31	-10	8	-18	14.5	13.2	1.27	14.7	18.4	-3.74
Linas Kleiza	37	41	-0.65	0.15	-0.79	-0.50	-5	3	-8	15.3	13.5	1.77	15.1	15.7	-0.60
Chauncey Billups	72	73	-0.72	0.22	-0.95	-0.46	-9	7	-16	14.3	13.9	0.39	14.7	17.6	-2.86

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rafer Alston	75	74	0.79	-0.29	1.08	0.47	11	-9	20	14.4	19.1	-4.73	14.5	13.1	1.45
Luis Scola	71	70	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.48	10	-8	18	14.5	17.9	-3.39	14.4	13.6	0.87
Shane Battier	74	72	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.52	-3	5	-8	16.4	12.7	3.71	13.5	16.5	-3.00
Brent Barry	52	51	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.38	-1	3	-4	16.4	14.4	2.07	14.5	13.9	0.56
Charles Hayes	17	16	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.43	-6	8	-14	15.4	15.5	-0.14	12.2	14.6	-2.43
Aaron Brooks	31	30	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.11	-1	3	-4	15.7	15.4	0.35	13.5	14.5	-1.03
Carl Landry	50	48	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.04	-1	3	-4	15.4	15.6	-0.22	14.4	14.1	0.29
Von Wafer	63	62	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	-0.06	1	1	0	14.6	17.1	-2.51	14.7	13.4	1.28
Yao Ming	58	58	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	-0.04	0	2	-2	16.7	13.6	3.12	14.4	14.0	0.39

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.47,0.41,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.5,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.49,0.39,0.42,0.33,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.37,0.44,0.52,0.62,0.38,0.57,0.67,0.68,0.53,0.24,0.4,0.62,0.55,0.84,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 89, HOU 90	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.39,0.43,0.49,0.59,0.53,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.54,0.57,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.55,0.45,0.36,0.26,0.38,0.48,0.56,0.49,0.44,0.58,0.48,0.47,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.24,0.28,0.39,0.55,0.75,0.92,1	91.3%
UTA 99, PHX 107	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.44,0.37,0.46,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.39,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.48,0.41,0.52,0.56,0.44,0.5,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.41,0.35,0.33,0.61,0.55,0.68,0.99,1	91.2%
CHI 87, MIA 95	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.43,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.5,0.45,0.4,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.57,0.62,0.47,0.59,0.4,0.47,0.61,0.46,0.77,0.85,1	91.1%