NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	105		Excitement	7.1 [410]		MVP	Dwight Howard (ORL): +19.6%
San Antonio Spurs	98		Comeback	2.0 [435]		LVP	Matt Bonner (SAS): -5.4%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwight Howard	0.20	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.08	0.13	0.02	12	77%	0.34	5	-0.14	7	86%	0.05
Jameer Nelson	0.19	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.19,0.19	0.03	0.19	0.03	18	52%	0.25	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.02
Rashard Lewis	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.07	0.11	0.01	12	56%	0.18	0	0.00	3	100%	0.05
Hedo Turkoglu	0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.12	0.02	-0.01	12	70%	0.18	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
JJ Redick	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.14,0.14,0.1	-0.00	0.09	-0.01	9	67%	0.27	4	-0.17	0	0%	0.00
Keith Bogans	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.04	0.06	0.00	1	150%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Courtney Lee	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Johnson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	3	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marcin Gortat	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Parker	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.11,0.18,0.21,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.18	0.18	0.12	0.08	0.02	22	65%	0.23	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.04
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.13	0.13	-0.03	0.14	-0.02	13	55%	0.23	4	-0.10	7	100%	0.08
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.04	0.00	5	80%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Roger Mason Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.03	0.06	-0.00	4	62%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.01	-0.02	9	50%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
George Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	5	40%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.03	-0.03	0.03	14	56%	0.07	2	-0.11	4	100%	0.03
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	4	50%	0.03	1	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.6	1.7	26.2	15.5	26.5	2.7	31.4	131.6
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +35.1%

ORL +12.1%

ORL +8.5%

SAS -3.7%

SAS -2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	SAS	NBA	ORL	SAS	NBA
this game	16.0	15.4	15.5	115.4	106.5	106.4
season	15.3	16.4		107.3	106.6
opponent	15.7	15.8		103.2	101.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	14.6	16.8	15.0	17.9	16.0
SAS	16.0	14.5	17.1	14.2	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hedo Turkoglu	72	73	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.30	12	-5	17	15.6	17.6	-2.01	15.3	15.9	-0.65
Dwight Howard	77	78	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.44	6	1	5	16.1	15.6	0.56	15.9	12.9	3.04
JJ Redick	53	54	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.29	9	-2	11	17.1	14.6	2.43	14.8	16.4	-1.64
Rashard Lewis	73	74	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.29	6	1	5	16.1	16.0	0.05	15.6	14.8	0.75
Jameer Nelson	64	66	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.38	1	6	-5	15.4	17.7	-2.31	15.6	15.1	0.50
Anthony Johnson	27	26	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.08	6	1	5	17.7	15.4	2.31	15.1	15.6	-0.50
Courtney Lee	65	65	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.03	-3	10	-13	15.0	18.5	-3.49	16.1	13.9	2.19
Keith Bogans	10	10	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	-0.02	-3	10	-13	20.1	15.5	4.56	14.8	15.5	-0.71
Marcin Gortat	14	14	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	-0.14	1	6	-5	15.6	16.1	-0.56	12.9	15.9	-3.04

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kurt Thomas	20	21	0.23	-0.73	0.97	0.06	6	-13	19	14.1	15.8	-1.71	17.4	15.6	1.80
George Hill	22	23	0.00	-0.50	0.51	0.09	-3	-4	1	13.4	16.1	-2.72	17.6	15.5	2.09
Michael Finley	60	62	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.17	3	-10	13	15.6	15.1	0.57	15.2	17.9	-2.72
Roger Mason Jr.	60	59	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.14	-1	-6	5	15.7	14.9	0.81	16.9	14.5	2.38
Matt Bonner	51	51	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.31	3	-10	13	16.0	14.7	1.36	15.4	16.9	-1.48
Bruce Bowen	40	39	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.03	-9	2	-11	14.9	15.9	-0.99	17.1	15.3	1.81
Tony Parker	72	70	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.40	-2	-5	3	16.0	13.4	2.54	15.7	17.1	-1.37
Tim Duncan	72	70	-0.73	0.23	-0.97	-0.35	-13	6	-19	15.8	14.1	1.71	15.6	17.4	-1.80
Manu Ginobili	63	60	-0.83	0.33	-1.15	-0.27	-19	12	-31	14.9	16.5	-1.58	15.8	16.6	-0.81

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.35,0.4,0.34,0.36,0.35,0.39,0.35,0.41,0.49,0.4,0.44,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.43,0.36,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.52,0.66,0.47,0.32,0.31,0.47,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.33,0.05,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 83, CLE 74	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.5,0.5,0.42,0.41,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.3,0.37,0.34,0.39,0.31,0.36,0.36,0.46,0.38,0.4,0.46,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.33,0.33,0.39,0.29,0.33,0.09,0	91.9%
ORL 94, CHI 87	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.33,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.36,0.46,0.41,0.5,0.51,0.43,0.48,0.42,0.39,0.45,0.41,0.38,0.27,0.4,0.48,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.52,0.47,0.31,0.54,0.46,0.55,0.55,0.22,0.01,0	91.9%
SAC 110, DEN 105	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.57,0.51,0.44,0.47,0.5,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.37,0.32,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.56,0.49,0.42,0.48,0.47,0.52,0.32,0.32,0.35,0.4,0.45,0.37,0.15,0.16,0	91.5%