NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	108		Excitement	2.8 [1209]		MVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): +10.2%
Denver Nuggets	91		Comeback	1.1 [504]		LVP	Chauncey Billups (DEN): -6.6%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0.10	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.18	0.01	0.08	11	84%	0.11	1	-0.00	3	100%	0.01
Matt Bonner	0.09	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.11	0.00	0.02	8	87%	0.10	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.08	0.00	0.03	12	66%	0.08	2	-0.03	8	87%	-0.00
George Hill	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	8	55%	0.05	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.00
Michael Finley	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Roger Mason Jr.	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	14	38%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.10	0.00	-0.09	21	50%	0.06	7	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Bruce Bowen	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.03	0.01	5	70%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Linas Kleiza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	0.00	0.03	5	71%	0.05	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	7	55%	0.03	2	-0.04	8	50%	-0.01
Dahntay Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	4	56%	-0.01	3	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Nene	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.02	-0.01	0.06	12	50%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	0.03	15	41%	-0.05	0	0.00	7	43%	-0.03
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.13	0.00	-0.07	16	46%	0.02	7	-0.07	3	67%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	0.03	13	46%	-0.05	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	3.6	31.3	3.6	48.1	3.4	28.3	143.6
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +36.1%

SAS +2.4%

SAS +10.1%

DEN -0.7%

SAS +2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DEN	NBA	SAS	DEN	NBA
this game	16.8	14.3	15.5	116.1	98.9	106.4
season	16.4	14.4		106.6	109.5
opponent	15.7	15.7		105.2	103.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.5	15.2	18.5	18.0	16.8
DEN	15.1	14.8	14.2	13.3	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	77	76	0.47	0.03	0.44	-0.18	22	-5	27	16.3	19.2	-2.91	14.7	12.7	1.93
Bruce Bowen	61	59	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.12	10	7	3	17.4	15.7	1.70	13.8	15.2	-1.39
Roger Mason Jr.	60	59	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.05	11	6	5	16.3	17.6	-1.29	13.3	16.2	-2.81
Manu Ginobili	57	55	0.35	0.15	0.19	-0.15	17	0	17	16.6	17.0	-0.37	15.5	12.6	2.84
Tony Parker	67	67	0.29	0.21	0.09	-0.03	11	6	5	17.6	14.7	2.84	14.9	13.0	1.91
Matt Bonner	54	53	0.22	0.28	-0.07	-0.17	13	4	9	15.7	18.2	-2.46	15.3	13.1	2.16
George Hill	40	41	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.26	-2	19	-21	16.5	17.0	-0.48	12.6	15.7	-3.09
Fabricio Oberto	21	21	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.19	-3	20	-23	20.4	15.7	4.72	13.2	14.7	-1.44
Michael Finley	28	29	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.09	6	11	-5	15.9	17.2	-1.26	14.7	14.2	0.55

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Andersen	14	14	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.02	0	-17	17	13.4	14.5	-1.17	14.4	17.2	-2.76
Dahntay Jones	26	25	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.09	-6	-11	5	16.2	13.6	2.52	17.0	16.7	0.31
Carmelo Anthony	76	77	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.13	-2	-15	13	14.4	14.1	0.27	17.5	13.4	4.03
J.R. Smith	53	54	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.13	-3	-14	11	13.2	15.8	-2.60	16.4	17.3	-0.87
Anthony Carter	40	41	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.17	-2	-15	13	14.5	14.2	0.27	16.3	17.1	-0.77
Linas Kleiza	51	51	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.04	-9	-8	-1	13.0	16.0	-3.02	15.8	18.0	-2.15
Kenyon Martin	57	57	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	0.02	-15	-2	-13	15.1	13.1	2.04	17.1	16.2	0.90
Nene	67	68	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	0.21	-24	7	-31	14.9	13.0	1.85	16.9	16.3	0.62
Chauncey Billups	76	78	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	0.16	-24	7	-31	14.4	13.9	0.50	17.2	14.8	2.35

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.28,0.2,0.25,0.19,0.14,0.13,0.1,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 98, UTA 87	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.5,0.5,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.46,0.43,0.44,0.44,0.45,0.35,0.31,0.24,0.21,0.15,0.14,0.1,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.1%
DET 97, NYK 81	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.3,0.22,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.17,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.0%
DEN 131, MIN 102	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.33,0.31,0.24,0.16,0.17,0.19,0.11,0.12,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.8%