NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	75		Excitement	6.4 [538]		MVP	Matt Bonner (SAS): +23.3%
San Antonio Spurs	77		Comeback	40.3 [10]		LVP	Aaron Brooks (HOU): -36.9%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Metta World Peace	0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11	0.05	0.05	-0.01	16	56%	0.14	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Carl Landry	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.00	6	67%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Yao Ming	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0	0.01	-0.02	-0.01	9	62%	0.10	3	-0.10	3	100%	0.01
Charles Hayes	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	1	75%	0.02	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Von Wafer	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	6	50%	0.03	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Luther Head	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	2	33%	-0.01	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Luis Scola	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	6	33%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	-0.32	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.19,-0.32	-0.12	-0.20	0.00	12	25%	-0.28	1	-0.04	4	75%	0.01
Aaron Brooks	-0.37	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.37	-0.06	-0.30	0.02	17	41%	-0.30	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.11	0.13	0.00	6	92%	0.23	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.13	0.13	0.07	0.04	-0.02	15	58%	0.15	1	-0.02	8	75%	-0.02
Anthony Tolliver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
George Hill	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.10	-0.10	0.02	13	65%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	40%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Fabricio Oberto	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	4	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	6	42%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	-0.01	7	19%	-0.09	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Ime Udoka	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.04	-0.01	2	0%	-0.04	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Roger Mason Jr.	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13	-0.13	-0.02	-0.04	0.07	8	50%	-0.09	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	1.8	26.2	15.4	25.5	1.8	36.1	130.8
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +54.5%

HOU -14.7%

SAS +5.2%

SAS +3.3%

SAS +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	SAS	NBA	HOU	SAS	NBA
this game	18.2	16.5	15.5	89.3	93.9	106.4
season	16.3	16.4		105.9	106.6
opponent	15.7	15.2		103.2	102.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	16.4	19.4	17.6	19.5	18.2
SAS	16.3	16.6	17.5	15.5	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charles Hayes	22	19	0.28	-0.78	1.06	0.05	8	-10	18	13.9	19.7	-5.86	16.0	16.6	-0.63
Luis Scola	35	36	0.17	-0.67	0.83	0.14	1	-3	4	18.6	17.9	0.75	16.9	16.2	0.71
Von Wafer	35	34	0.12	-0.62	0.73	-0.18	10	-12	22	17.0	19.1	-2.09	15.4	17.3	-1.94
Luther Head	16	14	0.07	-0.57	0.63	-0.02	3	-5	8	13.9	19.2	-5.25	15.5	16.7	-1.19
Carl Landry	48	45	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.35	-2	0	-2	18.2	18.1	0.14	16.1	17.0	-0.88
Aaron Brooks	69	69	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.40	-7	5	-12	19.0	14.7	4.29	16.6	15.9	0.67
Tracy McGrady	63	60	-0.67	0.17	-0.83	-0.55	-4	2	-6	18.1	18.5	-0.38	17.0	15.1	1.85
Metta World Peace	69	70	-0.69	0.19	-0.89	-0.43	-9	7	-16	19.1	13.9	5.18	16.5	16.6	-0.11
Yao Ming	63	63	-0.75	0.25	-0.99	-0.45	-10	8	-18	19.4	14.5	4.89	17.0	14.9	2.01

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	68	68	0.83	-0.33	1.17	0.42	14	-12	26	16.6	15.8	0.85	18.6	16.2	2.40
George Hill	59	59	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.53	8	-6	14	17.0	15.3	1.71	18.9	16.4	2.55
Roger Mason Jr.	63	64	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.50	6	-4	10	16.9	15.1	1.87	19.0	15.5	3.53
Michael Finley	46	48	0.65	-0.15	0.81	0.48	6	-4	10	18.3	14.2	4.04	19.6	16.3	3.25
Matt Bonner	30	31	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.21	7	-5	12	16.8	16.3	0.54	21.7	16.1	5.58
Bruce Bowen	37	38	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.22	-4	6	-10	14.2	18.4	-4.24	15.6	20.3	-4.72
Fabricio Oberto	24	24	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.08	-4	6	-10	17.6	16.0	1.55	18.0	18.2	-0.21
Anthony Tolliver	12	13	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.04	-5	7	-12	16.7	16.5	0.21	13.4	19.1	-5.69
Ime Udoka	19	19	-0.15	0.65	-0.79	-0.06	-3	5	-8	14.4	17.1	-2.69	16.1	18.8	-2.69
Jacque Vaughn	23	25	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	-0.09	-6	8	-14	15.3	17.0	-1.71	16.4	18.9	-2.55
Kurt Thomas	29	31	-0.38	0.88	-1.26	-0.12	-9	11	-20	15.4	17.1	-1.72	16.4	19.3	-2.91

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.58,0.56,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.41,0.46,0.4,0.42,0.33,0.3,0.42,0.38,0.32,0.34,0.23,0.22,0.25,0.22,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 84, PHX 86	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.54,0.6,0.56,0.47,0.4,0.46,0.44,0.36,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.33,0.33,0.29,0.28,0.34,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.38,0.35,0.24,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.19,0.17,0.25,0.21,0.23,0.42,1	92.6%
PHX 74, DET 75	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.55,0.47,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.29,0.29,0.23,0.24,0.26,0.12,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.22,0.42,1	92.5%
BOS 98, VAN 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.58,0.52,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.27,0.35,0.4,0.49,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.37,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.22,0.21,0.24,0.19,0.04,0.08,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.09,0.58,1	92.4%