NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	107		Excitement	8.8 [146]		MVP	Arron Afflalo (DET): +22.6%
Golden State Warriors	102		Comeback	5.5 [332]		LVP	Stephen Jackson (GSW): -33.0%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Arron Afflalo	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.08	0.12	-0.03	8	61%	0.23	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Rasheed Wallace	0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.21,-0.21,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11	0.03	0.09	0.01	15	59%	0.25	3	-0.13	2	0%	-0.09
Jason Maxiell	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	4	60%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Amir Johnson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	5	60%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Walter Herrmann	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.01	0.03	0.01	0.05	15	57%	0.06	3	-0.06	12	83%	-0.02
Kwame Brown	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Will Bynum	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	3	67%	0.05	3	-0.09	3	67%	-0.00
Allen Iverson	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.04	-0.07	-0.00	23	44%	-0.03	3	-0.09	6	83%	0.01
Tayshaun Prince	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.06	-0.08	-0.01	10	42%	0.00	2	-0.13	4	50%	-0.02

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandan Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.02	-0.00	5	82%	0.12	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Ronny Turiaf	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.00	0.00	3	75%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kelenna Azubuike	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01	0.01	-0.07	0.05	-0.03	16	42%	0.06	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.01
Andris Biedrins	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	0.01	14	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	6	50%	-0.10
Corey Maggette	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	7	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	12	75%	-0.00
Marcus Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Morrow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	0.02	8	44%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
DeMarcus Nelson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	0.02	2	50%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
CJ Watson	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.24	-0.24	-0.03	-0.17	0.04	15	50%	-0.06	4	-0.18	4	75%	0.00
Stephen Jackson	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.23,-0.23,-0.3,-0.3,-0.33,-0.33	-0.33	-0.14	-0.17	0.02	19	34%	-0.24	3	-0.09	6	67%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	3.4	32.4	20.4	31.3	2.8	41.2	155.5
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +78.5%

GSW -3.0%

GSW -12.1%

GSW -10.5%

GSW -2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	GSW	NBA	DET	GSW	NBA
this game	14.2	13.3	15.5	101.9	98.1	106.4
season	16.9	13.8		104.9	107.3
opponent	15.0	15.7		111.2	106.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	15.9	14.9	12.3	14.0	14.2
GSW	12.9	15.1	14.3	11.2	13.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rasheed Wallace	88	84	0.78	-0.28	1.07	0.23	19	-14	33	13.8	16.4	-2.60	13.5	12.8	0.65
Richard Hamilton	90	87	0.73	-0.23	0.95	0.37	12	-7	19	14.0	15.7	-1.76	13.3	13.4	-0.10
Arron Afflalo	65	64	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.42	9	-4	13	12.9	16.4	-3.59	12.3	14.9	-2.64
Allen Iverson	95	94	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.34	9	-4	13	13.8	18.4	-4.61	13.2	14.8	-1.63
Tayshaun Prince	100	98	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.34	5	0	5	14.4	10.6	3.81	13.4	11.3	2.12
Walter Herrmann	4	5	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	-0.04	1	4	-3	14.0	14.2	-0.24	20.4	13.0	7.43
Amir Johnson	14	16	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.00	-4	9	-13	15.9	14.0	1.96	15.9	12.9	3.09
Kwame Brown	20	19	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.07	-8	13	-21	17.8	13.4	4.41	12.5	13.5	-1.04
Jason Maxiell	26	27	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	-0.04	-6	11	-17	14.8	14.0	0.77	13.7	13.2	0.51
Will Bynum	23	26	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	0.08	-12	17	-29	17.0	13.5	3.49	12.8	13.5	-0.64

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ronny Turiaf	23	23	0.12	-0.62	0.73	-0.03	5	-10	15	14.4	13.0	1.37	16.5	13.6	2.94
Anthony Morrow	33	35	0.09	-0.59	0.69	0.00	3	-8	11	12.1	13.9	-1.85	13.8	14.5	-0.69
Brandan Wright	39	38	0.07	-0.57	0.65	-0.04	4	-9	13	12.9	13.6	-0.61	14.4	14.1	0.26
CJ Watson	72	73	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.19	7	-12	19	13.6	12.6	1.01	15.2	12.1	3.03
Marcus Williams	10	9	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	0.01	-1	-4	3	14.0	13.3	0.74	11.8	14.5	-2.68
DeMarcus Nelson	11	10	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.14	-4	-1	-3	8.7	13.9	-5.14	6.8	15.0	-8.21
Kelenna Azubuike	96	97	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.36	-5	0	-5	13.2	14.6	-1.41	14.2	14.6	-0.43
Stephen Jackson	99	101	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.41	-7	2	-9	13.5	10.4	3.07	14.1	18.5	-4.44
Andris Biedrins	77	78	-0.61	0.11	-0.73	-0.26	-12	7	-19	13.5	12.9	0.59	14.2	14.4	-0.29
Corey Maggette	60	61	-0.80	0.30	-1.10	-0.36	-15	10	-25	13.9	12.5	1.47	14.4	14.0	0.47

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.56,0.56,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.55,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.63,0.66,0.67,0.64,0.7,0.71,0.8,0.8,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.72,0.59,0.52,0.37,0.32,0.22,0.15,0.29,0.33,0.32,0.47,0.53,0.66,0.75,0.21,0.22,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 83, LAC 75	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.65,0.68,0.67,0.68,0.69,0.71,0.68,0.71,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.73,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.8,0.85,0.84,0.74,0.65,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.26,0.16,0.18,0.11,0.15,0.17,0.29,0.61,0.47,0.28,0.15,0.05,0	90.3%
POR 94, NOH 86	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.4,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.66,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.6,0.69,0.73,0.67,0.77,0.68,0.62,0.59,0.63,0.44,0.38,0.3,0.33,0.2,0.35,0.42,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.37,0.24,0.04,0	90.1%
PHI 84, MIA 82	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.57,0.62,0.68,0.62,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.73,0.76,0.84,0.83,0.76,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.58,0.52,0.44,0.48,0.34,0.26,0.21,0.17,0.32,0.36,0.46,0.33,0.39,0.16,0.06,0.04,0	89.9%