NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	98		Excitement	9.3 [92]		MVP	Rashard Lewis (ORL): +26.2%
Orlando Magic	97		Comeback	10.2 [123]		LVP	Chris Paul (NOH): -24.6%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Peja Stojakovic	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.22,0.21	-0.07	0.27	-0.01	11	37%	0.31	1	-0.10	5	100%	0.07
Morris Peterson	0.15	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.15,0.15	0.22	-0.03	0.05	9	106%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David West	0.06	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.00	0.05	-0.01	16	47%	0.08	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.04
Tyson Chandler	0.06	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	7	75%	0.12	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.03
Julian Wright	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hilton Armstrong	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	0.00	5	36%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.07
Bonzi Wells	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	7	50%	0.02	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jannero Pargo	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.11	-0.03	-0.01	11	27%	-0.08	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Chris Paul	-0.25	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.17,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,-0.1,-0.1,-0.25	-0.13	-0.13	-0.01	19	40%	-0.14	4	-0.11	10	70%	-0.15

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.33,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.23	0.05	0.02	12	100%	0.31	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.13	0.05	-0.00	9	74%	0.18	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.07
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.07,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.04	-0.00	10	55%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.22,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.06	0.01	7	61%	0.12	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.02,-0.05,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	-0.05	-0.00	19	59%	0.14	5	-0.15	6	67%	-0.03
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	4	25%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.12	-0.01	-0.02	5	0%	-0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,-0.16	-0.16	-0.00	-0.16	-0.00	7	43%	-0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.7	2.5	28.3	15.7	30.0	2.7	34.4	138.3
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL -16.5%

NOH +4.2%

NOH +67.1%

ORL -7.1%

NOH +2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	ORL	NBA	NOH	ORL	NBA
this game	16.7	15.8	15.4	112.6	107.8	105.7
season	15.9	15.1		109.6	109.9
opponent	15.6	15.7		104.6	104.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	17.4	15.2	17.8	16.8	16.7
ORL	14.0	16.1	17.4	16.0	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David West	66	68	0.79	-0.29	1.09	0.44	12	-11	23	17.2	15.4	1.72	15.6	16.5	-0.84
Morris Peterson	58	61	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.51	5	-4	9	16.7	16.8	-0.09	15.2	17.1	-1.84
Chris Paul	70	73	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.50	4	-3	7	17.3	14.6	2.67	15.8	15.7	0.14
Tyson Chandler	60	64	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.38	2	-1	3	15.8	18.8	-2.96	15.4	16.9	-1.55
Peja Stojakovic	70	74	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.39	-3	4	-7	16.5	17.8	-1.28	15.7	16.4	-0.67
Hilton Armstrong	27	26	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.09	-1	2	-3	18.8	15.8	2.96	16.9	15.4	1.55
Bonzi Wells	35	36	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.07	-4	5	-9	16.1	17.2	-1.04	16.4	15.4	0.99
Julian Wright	9	9	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.06	-5	6	-11	15.4	16.9	-1.44	18.0	15.6	2.42
Jannero Pargo	40	39	-0.23	0.73	-0.97	-0.09	-5	6	-11	16.4	17.0	-0.53	16.2	15.5	0.72

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carlos Arroyo	43	41	0.24	-0.74	0.99	0.04	7	-8	15	15.3	16.3	-0.91	18.3	15.3	2.99
Adonal Foyle	11	10	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.01	0	-1	1	17.9	15.5	2.38	15.6	16.9	-1.28
Keith Bogans	50	52	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.19	6	-7	13	15.1	16.7	-1.62	16.3	17.4	-1.06
Maurice Evans	58	53	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.14	-5	4	-9	16.3	14.9	1.42	17.5	15.5	2.03
Pat Garrity	29	27	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.11	-14	13	-27	17.3	15.1	2.25	14.5	17.7	-3.27
Hedo Turkoglu	81	78	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.54	7	-8	15	15.5	18.9	-3.41	16.6	18.2	-1.66
Rashard Lewis	53	52	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.51	5	-6	11	15.5	16.4	-0.90	17.5	15.7	1.80
Dwight Howard	79	77	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.48	-1	0	-1	15.5	17.9	-2.38	16.9	15.6	1.28
Keyon Dooling	46	45	-0.95	0.45	-1.41	-0.66	-10	9	-19	16.5	15.1	1.34	15.7	17.9	-2.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.63,0.53,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.77,0.75,0.68,0.73,0.76,0.74,0.67,0.67,0.75,0.86,0.83,0.75,0.67,0.58,0.65,0.74,0.79,0.76,0.78,0.68,0.58,0.43,0.52,0.52,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.61,0.37,0.44,0.85,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 105, MIN 102	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.56,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.76,0.71,0.7,0.74,0.68,0.7,0.66,0.65,0.69,0.66,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.7,0.69,0.75,0.73,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.67,0.68,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.38,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.53,0.38,0.37,0.24,0.73,0	90.5%
UTA 105, NOK 104	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.61,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.77,0.8,0.79,0.85,0.83,0.81,0.83,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.77,0.67,0.7,0.67,0.77,0.75,0.69,0.63,0.56,0.64,0.58,0.66,0.57,0.67,0.58,0.57,0.54,0.33,0.53,0.57,0.32,0.74,0	90.3%
CHH 91, POR 89	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.47,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.72,0.64,0.78,0.75,0.77,0.77,0.75,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.74,0.72,0.7,0.67,0.72,0.54,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.37,0.47,0.41,0.4,0.48,0.54,0.78,0.9,0	90.3%