NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	106		Excitement	5.7 [639]		MVP	Monta Ellis (GSW): +16.5%
Golden State Warriors	117		Comeback	1.1 [976]		LVP	Jason Kapono (TOR): -4.3%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
T.J. Ford	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.13,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.04	-0.01	18	52%	0.11	2	-0.03	8	87%	0.05
Anthony Parker	0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.12	-0.01	0.05	16	69%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Delfino	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	-0.01	0.05	-0.03	7	56%	0.10	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.03
Andrea Bargnani	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.00	0.01	-0.03	9	64%	0.17	4	-0.12	4	50%	-0.03
Jamario Moon	0.03	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	-0.00	5	58%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jose Calderon	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.00	7	57%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kris Humphries	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.02	7	71%	0.03	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.08	0.01	-0.03	10	40%	0.01	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kapono	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	5	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Monta Ellis	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.13	0.05	0.02	19	75%	0.30	5	-0.14	6	83%	0.01
Andris Biedrins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.10	0.07	0.01	6	86%	0.16	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Baron Davis	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.11	0.05	0.04	17	64%	0.12	1	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Stephen Jackson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.03	0.06	-0.03	15	59%	0.18	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.02	-0.01	14	50%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	10	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Kelenna Azubuike	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	3	37%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
CJ Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.7	1.8	26.4	15.7	21.8	2.5	29.6	124.4
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +44.1%

TOR -14.2%

GSW +8.6%

GSW +9.3%

GSW +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	GSW	NBA	TOR	GSW	NBA
this game	15.4	13.9	15.4	108.2	119.4	105.7
season	15.6	13.5		108.5	109.8
opponent	15.1	15.7		107.9	105.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	14.8	13.4	15.4	18.8	15.4
GSW	11.3	14.3	15.2	15.5	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carlos Delfino	51	51	0.19	-0.69	0.89	0.02	6	-17	23	14.7	16.3	-1.63	14.7	13.1	1.64
Kris Humphries	47	45	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.22	10	-21	31	14.6	16.3	-1.68	14.3	13.6	0.69
Jason Kapono	40	39	0.03	-0.53	0.57	-0.32	12	-23	35	15.5	15.4	0.17	14.4	13.7	0.70
T.J. Ford	60	59	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.27	2	-13	15	15.0	16.1	-1.07	14.6	12.9	1.69
Jamario Moon	49	48	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	0.13	-15	4	-19	15.2	15.7	-0.53	13.0	14.9	-1.88
Andrea Bargnani	60	61	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.06	-12	1	-13	16.7	13.5	3.23	14.0	13.8	0.25
Rasho Nesterovic	45	46	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.02	-16	5	-21	16.3	14.7	1.59	13.1	14.7	-1.52
Jose Calderon	50	52	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	0.11	-21	10	-31	16.1	14.7	1.37	13.8	14.1	-0.24
Anthony Parker	88	89	-0.87	0.37	-1.24	-0.26	-21	10	-31	15.1	18.7	-3.62	13.6	17.2	-3.62

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Monta Ellis	88	87	0.73	-0.23	0.97	0.18	19	-8	27	13.9	14.0	-0.07	15.6	14.6	0.92
Baron Davis	82	82	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.10	16	-5	21	13.7	15.0	-1.27	15.4	15.5	-0.06
Andris Biedrins	53	52	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.15	13	-2	15	13.6	14.3	-0.73	16.2	14.6	1.67
Stephen Jackson	88	88	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.10	14	-3	17	13.7	15.9	-2.18	16.0	10.5	5.51
Mickael Pietrus	76	76	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.14	12	-1	13	13.9	14.0	-0.14	15.6	14.8	0.87
Kelenna Azubuike	28	28	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.01	-1	12	-13	15.4	13.4	1.99	14.1	16.0	-1.83
CJ Watson	10	9	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.13	-6	17	-23	12.2	14.1	-1.94	15.0	15.5	-0.49
Al Harrington	41	42	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.13	-6	17	-23	14.2	13.7	0.52	14.4	16.3	-1.91
Matt Barnes	24	26	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	-0.04	-6	17	-23	14.9	13.6	1.24	14.4	15.8	-1.40

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.62,0.69,0.68,0.69,0.74,0.8,0.76,0.78,0.82,0.86,0.83,0.81,0.83,0.76,0.78,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.75,0.8,0.78,0.77,0.82,0.78,0.7,0.76,0.74,0.77,0.78,0.77,0.78,0.79,0.85,0.85,0.68,0.67,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.78,0.9,0.93,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 110, UTA 116	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.66,0.74,0.77,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.81,0.81,0.75,0.76,0.82,0.81,0.84,0.85,0.85,0.79,0.74,0.78,0.85,0.86,0.86,0.81,0.88,0.86,0.83,0.76,0.85,0.83,0.79,0.69,0.77,0.79,0.74,0.74,0.67,0.58,0.58,0.47,0.4,0.67,0.92,1,1,0.99,1	93.6%
SEA 98, LAL 109	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.73,0.73,0.72,0.74,0.81,0.77,0.8,0.83,0.8,0.83,0.85,0.89,0.88,0.87,0.84,0.87,0.86,0.75,0.79,0.69,0.66,0.61,0.67,0.71,0.75,0.66,0.73,0.71,0.64,0.78,0.74,0.62,0.67,0.63,0.53,0.6,0.82,0.86,0.99,1,1,1	93.4%
MIN 119, CHA 121	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.54,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.73,0.78,0.81,0.81,0.78,0.78,0.74,0.77,0.83,0.87,0.8,0.79,0.78,0.8,0.8,0.7,0.82,0.87,0.84,0.78,0.76,0.64,0.77,0.85,0.9,0.88,0.87,0.91,0.85,0.84,0.76,0.67,0.77,0.64,0.71,0.83,0.69,0.9,0.91,0.96,1	92.5%