NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	114		Excitement	11.7 [21]		MVP	Kenyon Martin (DEN): +41.4%
Miami Heat	113		Comeback	3.8 [495]		LVP	Allen Iverson (DEN): -36.5%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kenyon Martin	0.41	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.22,0.27,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.41,0.41,0.41	0.17	0.16	-0.08	16	75%	0.41	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	0.40	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.4,0.36,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4	0.21	0.19	0.00	16	80%	0.48	2	-0.08	3	67%	-0.01
Eduardo Najera	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.03	0.00	2	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Linas Kleiza	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.03	0.00	3	60%	0.02	1	-0.05	4	50%	-0.03
Marcus Camby	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.04	-0.01	11	55%	0.08	2	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	4	40%	0.01	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.06
Carmelo Anthony	-0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.21,-0.14,-0.22,-0.22,-0.18	-0.08	-0.09	0.02	23	43%	-0.10	3	-0.09	5	80%	0.01
Allen Iverson	-0.36	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.12,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.36,-0.36	-0.10	-0.27	-0.00	20	35%	-0.28	2	-0.08	6	100%	0.03

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mark Blount	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.05	0.20	0.02	16	56%	0.26	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.15,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.05	-0.00	6	71%	0.17	2	-0.09	2	100%	0.02
Earl Barron	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	-0.04	-0.00	16	58%	0.06	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Jason Williams	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	4	62%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Daequan Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Banks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	4	33%	0.01	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Shawn Marion	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.13,-0.13,-0.06,-0.06,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.02	-0.14	-0.00	26	43%	-0.13	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.02
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.02,-0.02,-0.3	-0.30	0.02	-0.31	0.01	26	50%	-0.25	2	-0.06	6	67%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	22.8	2.4	33.7	15.8	22.5	2.4	31.8	1.8	10.4	143.6
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	1.9	17.1	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +33.3%

DEN +10.2%

DEN +24.2%

MIA -22.0%

DEN +4.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MIA	NBA	DEN	MIA	NBA
this game	14.3	16.6	15.4	110.7	109.7	105.7
season	13.3	16.0		108.2	99.0
opponent	15.4	15.2		108.3	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
DEN	14.0	12.3	12.6	17.4	18.4	14.3
MIA	14.8	14.9	18.7	18.6	16.8	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Allen Iverson	98	98	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.44	4	-3	7	14.4	12.0	2.43	16.4	19.2	-2.77
Marcus Camby	81	82	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.49	0	1	-1	14.5	13.6	0.92	16.2	18.1	-1.92
Anthony Carter	55	52	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.32	4	-3	7	13.6	15.1	-1.45	17.1	16.0	1.12
Carmelo Anthony	79	78	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.52	-3	4	-7	14.7	13.2	1.49	16.9	15.5	1.38
J.R. Smith	52	55	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.02	9	-8	17	13.8	14.8	-1.02	16.5	16.7	-0.19
Kenyon Martin	83	81	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.39	-7	8	-15	14.2	14.6	-0.36	16.5	16.8	-0.32
Linas Kleiza	34	35	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.20	-1	2	-3	14.5	14.2	0.33	16.7	16.5	0.14
Eduardo Najera	33	34	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.03	-1	2	-3	14.5	14.2	0.30	16.5	16.6	-0.09

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Williams	50	50	0.21	-0.71	0.91	-0.03	8	-9	17	15.4	17.7	-2.26	13.4	15.2	-1.85
Earl Barron	15	14	0.08	-0.58	0.66	0.02	2	-3	5	15.0	16.8	-1.83	15.2	14.2	1.05
Dwyane Wade	82	84	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.46	14	-15	29	16.6	16.4	0.23	14.8	12.0	2.83
Daequan Cook	5	4	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	0.08	-6	5	-11	21.6	16.3	5.29	8.0	14.6	-6.57
Marcus Banks	33	32	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.08	-10	9	-19	17.2	16.3	0.91	13.2	14.8	-1.54
Shawn Marion	94	94	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.36	-5	4	-9	16.4	18.2	-1.82	14.0	17.7	-3.68
Mark Blount	88	89	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.49	-3	2	-5	16.8	15.0	1.83	14.2	15.2	-1.05
Ricky Davis	59	58	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.46	-4	3	-7	17.1	15.8	1.30	15.4	12.9	2.45
Dorell Wright	89	90	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.58	-1	0	-1	16.5	17.2	-0.75	14.7	11.9	2.73

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.56,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.66,0.68,0.72,0.72,0.77,0.75,0.67,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.63,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.62,0.72,0.66,0.52,0.44,0.26,0.38,0.52,0.67,0.42,0.47,0.4,0.27,0.25,0.34,0.33,0.28,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.57,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 92, CHI 89	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.6,0.67,0.59,0.56,0.61,0.69,0.61,0.64,0.73,0.65,0.58,0.55,0.67,0.67,0.55,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.53,0.34,0.24,0.22,0.31,0.45,0.57,0.42,0.46,0.55,0.37,0.43,0.42,0	89.4%
MIL 113, CHH 107	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.65,0.68,0.68,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.67,0.62,0.58,0.63,0.55,0.61,0.72,0.67,0.67,0.75,0.81,0.77,0.75,0.64,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.65,0.66,0.63,0.56,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.49,0.6,0.54,0.45,0.38,0.33,0.58,0.5,0.31,0.55,0.57,0.04,0	89.0%
NYK 118, MIL 113	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.57,0.67,0.71,0.73,0.74,0.71,0.66,0.72,0.69,0.73,0.69,0.74,0.66,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.73,0.7,0.71,0.6,0.61,0.58,0.53,0.48,0.68,0.62,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.4,0.39,0.46,0.37,0.43,0.42,0.5,0.38,0.21,0.24,0,0	88.6%