NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	111		Excitement	5.4 [700]		MVP	Al Harrington (GSW): +18.6%
Minnesota Timberwolves	98		Comeback	4.9 [512]		LVP	Corey Brewer (MIN): -16.6%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Harrington	0.19	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.09,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.15	0.04	0.00	14	74%	0.25	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.01
Monta Ellis	0.11	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.12	0.02	0.03	15	67%	0.14	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.01
Kelenna Azubuike	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	6	58%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Pietrus	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Jackson	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.02	0.01	16	54%	0.10	3	-0.08	5	100%	0.03
DJ Mbenga	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andris Biedrins	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.02	0.00	8	50%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Matt Barnes	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	5	60%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Baron Davis	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	15	51%	0.04	3	-0.07	5	80%	0.01
Marco Belinelli	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rashad McCants	0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.13	0.00	0.04	16	68%	0.12	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Gerald Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.02	0.01	13	64%	0.12	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Al Jefferson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.11	-0.01	0.02	17	59%	0.08	0	0.00	7	57%	-0.05
Chris Richard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Gomes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	0.01	9	42%	0.00	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Craig Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	9	40%	-0.00	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Sebastian Telfair	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16	-0.16	-0.17	-0.06	-0.07	11	27%	-0.04	5	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.07	-0.07	0.03	12	41%	-0.06	3	-0.11	3	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	2.6	28.5	16.7	27.0	2.5	31.8	134.0
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +33.1%

GSW +5.8%

GSW +1.5%

GSW +8.0%

GSW +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	MIN	NBA	GSW	MIN	NBA
this game	14.7	14.6	15.4	113.3	99.0	105.7
season	13.5	15.9		109.8	102.2
opponent	15.0	15.1		109.6	107.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	14.4	15.8	11.6	17.4	14.7
MIN	13.8	17.0	16.3	11.7	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Harrington	65	64	0.71	-0.21	0.92	-0.05	26	-13	39	13.7	16.5	-2.78	15.0	13.7	1.32
Monta Ellis	76	78	0.71	-0.21	0.91	0.21	17	-4	21	14.1	16.7	-2.59	14.3	15.5	-1.16
Baron Davis	88	87	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.04	14	-1	15	14.6	15.1	-0.47	14.8	13.0	1.78
Stephen Jackson	74	75	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.08	12	1	11	13.6	18.0	-4.35	14.5	14.9	-0.41
Andris Biedrins	76	76	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.19	8	5	3	14.3	15.9	-1.53	13.9	16.7	-2.72
Kelenna Azubuike	40	42	0.28	0.22	0.05	-0.02	10	3	7	15.5	14.1	1.40	14.8	14.4	0.46
DJ Mbenga	21	22	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.02	2	11	-9	15.6	14.4	1.14	17.3	13.8	3.54
Mickael Pietrus	11	11	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	0.01	-5	18	-23	19.2	14.1	5.08	16.1	14.4	1.72
Marco Belinelli	14	14	-0.18	0.68	-0.85	0.06	-8	21	-29	17.7	14.2	3.55	12.6	14.9	-2.24
Matt Barnes	25	26	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	0.05	-11	24	-35	17.5	13.7	3.77	13.2	15.1	-1.86

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Richard	10	9	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.00	-2	-11	9	11.8	14.9	-3.08	19.3	14.2	5.13
Ryan Gomes	57	56	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.06	0	-13	13	14.1	15.2	-1.09	15.4	13.7	1.76
Gerald Green	57	56	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	0.00	-6	-7	1	15.5	13.3	2.14	15.7	13.3	2.35
Craig Smith	48	48	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.08	-8	-5	-3	15.5	13.6	1.89	13.3	16.0	-2.67
Rashad McCants	93	92	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.05	-10	-3	-7	14.5	16.2	-1.70	14.7	14.0	0.72
Corey Brewer	68	68	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.13	-9	-4	-5	14.6	14.4	0.21	13.4	17.6	-4.17
Al Jefferson	83	83	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.09	-16	3	-19	14.7	14.1	0.53	14.4	15.9	-1.49
Sebastian Telfair	79	78	-0.60	0.10	-0.69	-0.19	-14	1	-15	14.0	16.9	-2.93	15.0	13.3	1.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.56,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.55,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.66,0.67,0.74,0.7,0.7,0.78,0.77,0.81,0.75,0.73,0.69,0.6,0.69,0.61,0.52,0.45,0.35,0.34,0.27,0.26,0.15,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.01,0.02,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 124, PHX 109	0.5,0.49,0.42,0.49,0.57,0.59,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.39,0.47,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.71,0.69,0.8,0.8,0.73,0.78,0.69,0.77,0.73,0.73,0.76,0.72,0.73,0.73,0.61,0.52,0.29,0.22,0.18,0.2,0.25,0.15,0.07,0.1,0.04,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.1%
TOR 108, CHH 100	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.55,0.47,0.44,0.5,0.56,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.59,0.65,0.74,0.82,0.79,0.8,0.75,0.75,0.79,0.72,0.7,0.67,0.52,0.48,0.26,0.28,0.26,0.33,0.22,0.15,0.13,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.1,0.15,0.05,0	94.1%
DET 93, PHI 84	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.71,0.65,0.66,0.75,0.8,0.81,0.77,0.73,0.78,0.71,0.55,0.49,0.58,0.52,0.35,0.35,0.31,0.18,0.19,0.21,0.19,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	93.7%