NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	98		Excitement	7.1 [368]		MVP	Jason Terry (DAL): +40.2%
Dallas Mavericks	107		Comeback	2.5 [586]		LVP	Bonzi Wells (HOU): -18.1%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luther Head	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.10	0.09	0.00	3	112%	0.19	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Yao Ming	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.13	0.05	0.03	12	75%	0.17	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Rafer Alston	0.05	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.00	-0.02	8	50%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	-0.02	0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.01,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.08,0.08,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.01	31	48%	0.09	2	-0.11	11	91%	0.05
Charles Hayes	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Mike James	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	0.01	-0.03	13	31%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	-0.04	0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	6	50%	0.04	1	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Luis Scola	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	0.00	4	25%	-0.00	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Bonzi Wells	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.12	-0.07	-0.01	7	25%	-0.06	3	-0.12	2	100%	0.02

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.22,0.32,0.41,0.38,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4	0.40	0.22	0.20	0.02	17	74%	0.40	0	0.00	8	87%	0.03
Josh Howard	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.14	0.07	0.03	11	70%	0.23	1	-0.05	8	100%	0.07
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.10	0.06	0.02	8	73%	0.16	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.04
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trenton Hassell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	4	37%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
DeSagana Diop	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.02	-0.01	8	56%	0.09	5	-0.13	2	100%	0.02
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	20	43%	0.01	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	6	33%	-0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.4	31.5	16.4	25.4	2.5	35.5	136.9
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +24.5%

DAL +12.8%

DAL +9.9%

DAL +4.4%

HOU -1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	DAL	NBA	HOU	DAL	NBA
this game	15.0	15.6	15.4	106.5	111.5	105.7
season	16.2	16.1		104.6	108.9
opponent	15.4	15.2		105.0	100.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	12.8	16.3	16.5	14.6	15.0
DAL	15.9	13.8	16.2	16.7	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charles Hayes	47	49	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.05	-3	-6	3	15.3	14.7	0.54	16.2	15.0	1.16
Rafer Alston	46	50	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.01	-3	-6	3	15.3	14.7	0.67	16.0	15.3	0.68
Luther Head	27	29	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.06	-1	-8	7	15.4	14.8	0.59	15.3	15.8	-0.47
Bonzi Wells	33	32	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.04	-2	-7	5	14.8	15.1	-0.31	14.7	16.1	-1.33
Tracy McGrady	72	77	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.25	-4	-5	1	14.7	15.9	-1.23	16.0	14.0	2.04
Yao Ming	74	77	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.26	-5	-4	-1	15.0	14.8	0.19	15.6	15.9	-0.39
Mike James	51	52	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.27	-6	-3	-3	14.6	15.5	-0.94	15.3	16.0	-0.63
Luis Scola	50	50	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.16	-10	1	-11	14.7	15.4	-0.68	14.8	16.6	-1.79
Shane Battier	60	64	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.21	-11	2	-13	15.3	14.3	0.99	16.0	14.8	1.23

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Terry	76	72	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.19	16	-7	23	15.1	17.6	-2.54	15.7	12.4	3.31
DeSagana Diop	81	76	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.24	12	-3	15	16.1	13.3	2.81	14.8	16.1	-1.30
Jerry Stackhouse	50	51	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.27	10	-1	11	15.0	16.4	-1.41	15.0	15.0	-0.06
Josh Howard	62	61	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.15	11	-2	13	15.8	15.4	0.39	15.2	14.5	0.71
Dirk Nowitzki	66	65	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.19	4	5	-1	15.2	16.6	-1.35	15.0	14.9	0.14
Juwan Howard	26	22	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.01	0	9	-9	14.4	16.1	-1.66	17.0	14.4	2.64
Trenton Hassell	35	35	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.15	-5	14	-19	16.2	15.3	0.84	14.4	15.3	-0.90
Eddie Jones	46	42	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	-0.01	-1	10	-11	15.8	15.5	0.32	14.7	15.2	-0.51
Jose Juan Barea	38	36	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.01	-2	11	-13	17.3	14.6	2.74	13.2	16.1	-2.90

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.5,0.48,0.6,0.64,0.55,0.45,0.51,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.4,0.4,0.58,0.66,0.57,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.53,0.61,0.85,0.93,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 81, TOR 98	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.59,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.58,0.57,0.47,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.41,0.48,0.4,0.46,0.57,0.48,0.43,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.72,0.9,0.99,1,1,1	93.5%
POR 71, DET 78	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.48,0.48,0.64,0.58,0.66,0.62,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.78,0.89,0.95,1,1,1	92.8%
MIL 93, SAC 102	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.57,0.5,0.45,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.48,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.63,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.41,0.45,0.52,0.6,0.44,0.5,0.62,0.57,0.38,0.42,0.53,0.54,0.61,0.68,0.9,0.84,0.98,1	92.7%