NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	104		Excitement	3.2 [1155]		MVP	Dwight Howard (ORL): +21.8%
Philadelphia 76ers	87		Comeback	1.0 [1061]		LVP	Andre Iguodala (PHI): -11.4%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwight Howard	0.22	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.11,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.01	0.01	15	87%	0.26	5	-0.04	10	70%	0.01
Keyon Dooling	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.00	-0.02	6	57%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Keith Bogans	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.00	3	83%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trevor Ariza	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.02	0.02	-0.04	6	33%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	12	54%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darko Milicic	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	-0.00	0.04	11	58%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	10	48%	0.00	2	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Tony Battie	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	-0.00	-0.03	3	33%	-0.00	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Grant Hill	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.09	-0.00	-0.02	12	41%	-0.01	3	-0.06	3	33%	-0.01

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lou Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	0.00	0.01	6	82%	0.08	2	-0.01	5	60%	-0.01
Kyle Korver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.07	0.00	0.04	11	58%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Lou Amundson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Jones	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steven Hunter	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	-0.01	0.05	7	73%	0.04	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Alan Henderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Samuel Dalembert	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	5	50%	-0.01	1	-0.01	4	75%	0.00
Willie Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	5	20%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	16	49%	-0.00	3	-0.05	5	80%	0.01
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	-0.00	-0.02	11	27%	-0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Andre Iguodala	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.17	-0.00	-0.06	12	40%	-0.02	7	-0.09	11	64%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	2.8	29.1	15.3	27.7	2.4	26.5	132.0
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +45.5%

PHI -2.6%

ORL +1.3%

ORL +2.5%

ORL +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	PHI	NBA	ORL	PHI	NBA
this game	17.4	14.8	15.4	116.9	96.7	104.5
season	15.9	15.5		103.4	101.7
opponent	15.7	15.7		105.2	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	13.9	16.5	18.5	20.9	17.4
PHI	17.4	14.8	14.2	12.8	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwight Howard	79	79	0.58	-0.08	0.65	-0.10	23	-6	29	17.6	15.8	1.77	15.3	11.3	4.04
Hedo Turkoglu	64	64	0.51	-0.01	0.51	-0.20	24	-7	31	17.8	16.2	1.57	16.4	11.0	5.32
Jameer Nelson	52	55	0.41	0.09	0.31	-0.27	23	-6	29	16.4	18.7	-2.23	16.1	12.8	3.26
Grant Hill	55	55	0.40	0.10	0.30	-0.04	15	2	13	15.7	20.0	-4.30	15.5	13.7	1.77
Darko Milicic	54	55	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.01	8	9	-1	18.1	16.3	1.74	13.6	16.8	-3.19
Keyon Dooling	46	45	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.05	3	14	-11	19.0	15.7	3.33	13.6	16.0	-2.36
Tony Battie	27	28	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.04	3	14	-11	16.7	17.7	-1.01	16.2	14.2	2.02
Trevor Ariza	32	33	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.19	-5	22	-27	16.4	17.9	-1.55	12.4	16.2	-3.88
Keith Bogans	16	16	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.10	-2	19	-21	15.2	17.8	-2.59	15.6	14.6	0.98
Carlos Arroyo	20	20	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.23	-7	24	-31	20.8	16.4	4.42	10.1	16.2	-6.07

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lou Amundson	2	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-17	17	3.5	15.1	-11.58	24.0	17.3	6.70
Bobby Jones	2	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-17	17	3.5	15.1	-11.58	24.0	17.3	6.70
Alan Henderson	4	4	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.00	-1	-16	15	23.7	14.4	9.34	16.7	17.4	-0.65
Joe Smith	51	51	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.20	0	-17	17	13.8	16.2	-2.44	17.8	16.8	1.01
Lou Williams	32	31	-0.23	-0.28	0.05	0.04	-9	-8	-1	14.1	15.2	-1.18	17.7	17.2	0.47
Kyle Korver	61	61	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.11	-4	-13	9	13.7	17.1	-3.37	18.2	15.6	2.52
Willie Green	45	43	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.02	-11	-6	-5	15.6	14.0	1.64	15.7	18.9	-3.24
Samuel Dalembert	53	52	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.13	-15	-2	-13	15.5	13.9	1.53	17.6	17.1	0.54
Andre Miller	70	71	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.04	-11	-6	-5	14.8	15.0	-0.23	17.4	17.2	0.19
Steven Hunter	56	56	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	0.16	-19	2	-21	15.2	14.1	1.09	16.9	18.2	-1.24
Andre Iguodala	74	74	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.01	-15	-2	-13	15.7	10.8	4.88	17.3	17.9	-0.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.33,0.29,0.27,0.3,0.22,0.24,0.23,0.25,0.18,0.18,0.29,0.24,0.23,0.26,0.27,0.16,0.09,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 114, BKN 101	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.34,0.39,0.38,0.31,0.24,0.26,0.24,0.22,0.21,0.17,0.2,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.23,0.21,0.22,0.12,0.14,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0	96.8%
BOS 114, WAS 81	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.41,0.34,0.3,0.29,0.3,0.32,0.32,0.28,0.21,0.23,0.2,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.28,0.22,0.12,0.11,0.13,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.6%
HOU 116, ORL 98	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.31,0.25,0.25,0.3,0.22,0.18,0.27,0.27,0.28,0.21,0.24,0.26,0.23,0.2,0.14,0.1,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.5%